The creation and expansion of money supply by central banks have been a subject of debate and concern, especially since the financial crisis of 2008. The policy of quantitative easing has been employed by various central banks around the world to stimulate economies.
The creation and expansion of money supply by central banks have been a subject of debate and concern, especially since the financial crisis of 2008. The policy of quantitative easing, or money printing, as it is colloquially known, has been employed by various central banks around the world to stimulate economies. However, this approach is not without its critics and perceived downsides. Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency with a fixed supply, has been proposed by some as a potential antidote to the problems caused by an ever-increasing money supply.
Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, have the ability to create money, effectively increasing the money supply within the economy. This expansion of the base money has been significant since 2009, with the U.S. money supply growing by approximately eight to nine times. While this can provide short-term economic stimulus, it also leads to long-term consequences, including inflation and the degradation of purchasing power.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, has risen by 20% since 2020. However, the distribution of new money within the economy is unpredictable and can lead to uneven changes in prices, affecting businesses and individuals differently.
As the money supply increases, more currency chases the same amount of goods and services, leading to higher prices. This is compounded by the fact that printing money does not create real value; it merely dilutes the existing currency's value. Since 2008, the U.S. labor force has only increased by 6%, starkly contrasting with the significant increase in money supply.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 with a predetermined supply limit of 21 million coins. This fixed supply contrasts with fiat currencies, which can be created at will by central banks. Bitcoin's scarcity is enforced through its protocol, which halves the rate of new bitcoin issuance approximately every four years, in an event known as "halving."
The Bitcoin network's underlying technology ensures that its supply cannot be manipulated or increased beyond the 21 million cap. This design is intended to make Bitcoin immune to the inflationary pressures that affect fiat currencies. According to proponents, if Bitcoin maintains its fixed supply, it could become a global reserve currency and be adopted universally for business transactions and pricing of goods and services.
Historically, economies have gravitated towards a single form of money, which simplifies trade and is widely accepted. The predictability and security that Bitcoin's fixed supply offers could make it a strong candidate for becoming the optimal form of money, assuming global adoption.
The expansion of the money supply is directly linked to inflation, which can erode the value of cash on business balance sheets and make financial planning more complex. The unpredictability of input costs and revenue pricing due to inflation forces businesses to frequently reassess their models and strategies.
The financial system's current level of leverage, with a high debt-to-dollar ratio, necessitates continual money printing to avoid a collapse. As of the current data, there is $96 trillion of dollar-denominated debt compared to only $8 trillion in actual currency, leading to a system where each dollar is lent out multiple times, creating a fragile financial ecosystem.
Bitcoin is designed to be antifragile, meaning it gains strength from volatility and stressors. Unlike fiat currencies, which can become more fragile with increased money printing, Bitcoin's fixed supply ensures that it remains stable and secure, even during market downturns. Its decentralized nature means that there is no central authority to bail out users, promoting personal accountability.
The debate continues as to whether Bitcoin can effectively address the problems associated with money printing and serve as a more stable foundation for the global economy. Its fixed supply and antifragile nature present a stark contrast to the current financial system's fragility. As the world explores the potential of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's proposition as a hedge against inflation and a store of value will continue to attract attention and scrutiny.
Marty Bent
