The President is predicting pain is ahead, but it is necessary.
"There will be a little disturbance." - Trump talking about the effects tariffs will have on the economy
— Marty Bent (@MartyBent) March 5, 2025
Choreographing some market pain, which I think is the right thing to do.
During his State of the Union Address President Trump did a little bit of economic pacing and leading when he acknowledged some of the economic volatility that we have witnessed since he was inaugurated a month and a half ago and signaled that there will be a "little disturbance" ahead of us as markets reorient around the tectonic shift in economic policy that the Trump admin is in the midst of coordinating. I think this is a good move strategically.
It is important to be extra communicative through this transitional period. While it is obvious that Trump is very focused on making sure that markets perform extremely well during his second term, it is important to be realistic with the American people when it comes to the effects of a shift in taxation policy away from income tax and toward tariffs, the gutting of the bureaucratic layer of government which has become a material chunk of GDP over the last few decades, and attempt to bring manufacturing back on shore. We've been riding high on economic heroin since 2008 and there will be a period of withdrawal that comes with some pain. No one likes pain, but sometimes it is necessary.
This also confirms what many have been picking up on when Treasury Secretary Bessent has done interviews with the press; this admin is more focused on bringing treasury yields down than holding up the stock market.
On that note, it was an odd day in the markets as equities indices ended the day negative while bitcoin was up around 4%. Even the Nasdaq was negative and bitcoin typically trades in lockstep with the tech heavy index. Gold was up. Treasury yields were also up. It seems like markets are pricing in the possibility of stagflation. Particularly after yesterday's print on projected Q1 2025 GDP, which came in at -2.8%. Likely driven by cuts in government spending and the workforce that was doing the spending.
With Trump's comments and today's somewhat anomalous dislocation in markets, it will be interesting to see if bitcoin finally begins to be seen as a safe haven asset. Could the specter of stagflation be the catalyst to make the 16-year meme become a reality?
In our recent conversation, Dr. Jack Kruse presented a stark warning about Bitcoin custody that should give every holder pause. Kruse claims DARPA and other government agencies have developed electromagnetic technologies capable of extracting seed phrases directly from people's minds. He pointed to a concerning case where an Ethereum holder allegedly burned $1.4 million under some form of external control. While these claims require investigation, they reinforce the fundamental Bitcoin principle that third-party custody introduces unnecessary risk.
"I don't want any Bitcoiner to memorize their seed phrases ever again, because now they have a way to get it. That's my message." - Dr. Jack Kruse
As your host, I've consistently advocated for self-custody, but Kruse takes this argument to a new level. He describes self-custody as a "loyal title" that should never be surrendered, warning specifically against custodial services, ETFs, and other arrangements where your keys are held by others. Whether you believe the full extent of his technological concerns or not, the conclusion remains sound: the only Bitcoin that's truly yours is the Bitcoin you control through self-custody. Everything else introduces counterparty risk that undermines Bitcoin's core promise.
TLDR: Self-custody protects against both conventional and emerging threats
Check out the full podcast here for more on DARPA's bioweapons program, the SV-40 controversy, and the historical connections between government agencies and medical research.
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A 51% attack occurs when someone acquires majority mining power to build a longer blockchain, allowing them to reverse confirmed transactions.
Prevention relies on distributed mining power. The deeper a transaction is in the blockchain, the harder it is to reverse - even with 40% mining power, there's only a 50% chance of reversing a transaction 5 blocks deep.
Current Bitcoin mining requires 791,491,716 TH/s for a 51% attack, making it prohibitively expensive. No successful attack has occurred on Bitcoin's network.
Bitcoin is the ultimate scarce asset. Join bitcoin macro expert Nik Bhatia at a live online event on March 17th for Death, Taxes, & 21 Million. Learn how to shield your wealth, leverage tax-advantaged accounts, and secure your bitcoin for future generations. Your financial advisor, accountant, or attorney might not be up to speed on bitcoin—don’t get caught off guard.
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/funds.
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