
The Summer doldrums are canceled this year.
Stock market tumbles as $2.9 trillion vanishes amid global recession fears, marking the worst day since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. pic.twitter.com/thxrdxRjZ5
— TFTC (@TFTC21) August 2, 2024
We said it earlier this Summer in the context of the Presidential Election, but it stands true in the context of markets too; this is the year in which the Summer doldrums do not exist. The notoriously manipulated jobs numbers came in way below expectations today at 114,000. Pushing unemployment up to 4.3% and officially triggering the Sahm Rule which dictates that we are in a recession if the 3-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5 points above its 12-month low. Not an ideal scenario for an incumbent administration less than 100 days before a presidential election. Or for the American people who are currently being "led" by a President suffering from dementia.
As you can see from the heat map in the above tweet, the markets responded negatively with all major indices falling by more than 2.0% at the time of writing. In total terms almost $3 TRILLION of market cap has evaporated from the stock market today. This comes just one day after Intel reported terrible earnings, announced that they are halting their dividend in Q4 and are laying off 14% of their workforce. One has to imagine that after this jobs report and an imminent recession being a foregone conclusion that many other companies will follow suit.
This market carnage isn't only unfolding in the US. Before the jobs numbers in the US were reported the Nikkei suffered its biggest point drop since Black Monday and the yen crashed alongside of it.
To make matters worse this all comes on the heels of the Treasury issuing $100B of freshly minted debt in the span of... wait for it... two days.
At this pace we'll be adding $1 TRILLION to the national debt every 20 days. Truly entering the territory of exponentials. Absolutely mind boggling.
All of this points to a building mountain of evidence that the financial system is faltering. A major correction seems to be under way. You can look at the stock market, you can look at the inverted yield curve, or you can look at commercial real estate markets. Everywhere you turn alarm bells are going off.
NY CRE 😳
— Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) August 2, 2024
135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan sold for $332 million in 2006
On Wednesday, it sold for $8.5 million. pic.twitter.com/xQ6dMZTuX3
What does this mean for bitcoin? I'm not entirely sure as markets can act irrational, particularly in times of panic. However, if you look at the data and the headlines things are looking pretty good for bitcoin.
Here's what bitcoin's implied volatility looked like today compared to the S&P 500's implied vol.
S&P 500 Implied Vol: 😱🤯📈
— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) August 2, 2024
Bitcoin Implied Vol: 🥱🥱🥱 pic.twitter.com/w9ykNQwYLp
As of Tuesday morning Morgan Stanley wealth advisors will be given the green light to begin selling the bitcoin ETFs to their clients.
Morgan Stanley allows 15,000 wealth advisors to pitch BlackRock and Fidelity's #Bitcoin ETFs to clients, CNBC reports.
— TFTC (@TFTC21) August 2, 2024
This marks the first major bank approval for solicited Bitcoin sales. pic.twitter.com/n3wIYvE4Pu
Network hashrate and difficulty are sitting at all time highs.
As we hit a new ATH in hashrate and difficulty this week…
— Kevin Zhang (@SinoCrypto) August 2, 2024
Reviewed some pool data and came to the estimation that there’s ~8 million ASIC machines online across the entire network securing #bitcoin at any given time now
That’s pretty cool 😎
And Donald Trump seems to be hinting that bitcoin will certainly be a critical part of his economic plan if elected President. Specifically used to help begin paying back the national debt.
Trump: "Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion debt by handing them a little crypto check, hand them a little #Bitcoin." pic.twitter.com/uHeXPtwtw5
— TFTC (@TFTC21) August 2, 2024
All the fundamentals for bitcoin seem incredibly bullish to me. Again, who knows how the market reacts if a liquidity crisis emerges. This may be the cycle that bitcoin acts as a safe haven asset in crisis time as people seek assets they can trust. On top of this, it seems that despite the fact that the money printer hasn't officially been turned back on via an overt policy decision by the Fed, M2 is on the rise, which is typically beneficial for the price of bitcoin as it acts as a liquidity sponge.
And thus ends the period of global M2 money supply consolidation that began in early 2022.
— Dr. Jeff Ross (@VailshireCap) August 2, 2024
Onwards and upwards.
Recall that the Bitcoin savings network is the great absorber of liquidity.
Do what you must with this information. pic.twitter.com/JXKyT8Kxvf
What we do know for sure is that things are about to be chaotic and from first principles bitcoin is the asset that makes the most sense in chaotic times. The tailwinds are gaining strength and I would not be surprised if we have a historic Fall in terms of bitcoin price performance. Prepare accordingly.
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Stay vigilant out there, freaks.
Final thought...
Remember the wise words of Lord Littlefinger Baelish, "Chaos is a ladder."