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Tick... Tick... BOOM

Tick... Tick... BOOM

Aug 2, 2024

We said it earlier this Summer in the context of the Presidential Election, but it stands true in the context of markets too; this is the year in which the Summer doldrums do not exist. The notoriously manipulated jobs numbers came in way below expectations today at 114,000. Pushing unemployment up to 4.3% and officially triggering the Sahm Rule which dictates that we are in a recession if the 3-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5 points above its 12-month low. Not an ideal scenario for an incumbent administration less than 100 days before a presidential election. Or for the American people who are currently being "led" by a President suffering from dementia.

As you can see from the heat map in the above tweet, the markets responded negatively with all major indices falling by more than 2.0% at the time of writing. In total terms almost $3 TRILLION of market cap has evaporated from the stock market today. This comes just one day after Intel reported terrible earnings, announced that they are halting their dividend in Q4 and are laying off 14% of their workforce. One has to imagine that after this jobs report and an imminent recession being a foregone conclusion that many other companies will follow suit.

This market carnage isn't only unfolding in the US. Before the jobs numbers in the US were reported the Nikkei suffered its biggest point drop since Black Monday and the yen crashed alongside of it.

To make matters worse this all comes on the heels of the Treasury issuing $100B of freshly minted debt in the span of... wait for it... two days.

At this pace we'll be adding $1 TRILLION to the national debt every 20 days. Truly entering the territory of exponentials. Absolutely mind boggling.

All of this points to a building mountain of evidence that the financial system is faltering. A major correction seems to be under way. You can look at the stock market, you can look at the inverted yield curve, or you can look at commercial real estate markets. Everywhere you turn alarm bells are going off.

What does this mean for bitcoin? I'm not entirely sure as markets can act irrational, particularly in times of panic. However, if you look at the data and the headlines things are looking pretty good for bitcoin.

Here's what bitcoin's implied volatility looked like today compared to the S&P 500's implied vol.

As of Tuesday morning Morgan Stanley wealth advisors will be given the green light to begin selling the bitcoin ETFs to their clients.

Network hashrate and difficulty are sitting at all time highs.

And Donald Trump seems to be hinting that bitcoin will certainly be a critical part of his economic plan if elected President. Specifically used to help begin paying back the national debt.

All the fundamentals for bitcoin seem incredibly bullish to me. Again, who knows how the market reacts if a liquidity crisis emerges. This may be the cycle that bitcoin acts as a safe haven asset in crisis time as people seek assets they can trust. On top of this, it seems that despite the fact that the money printer hasn't officially been turned back on via an overt policy decision by the Fed, M2 is on the rise, which is typically beneficial for the price of bitcoin as it acts as a liquidity sponge.

What we do know for sure is that things are about to be chaotic and from first principles bitcoin is the asset that makes the most sense in chaotic times. The tailwinds are gaining strength and I would not be surprised if we have a historic Fall in terms of bitcoin price performance. Prepare accordingly.

Luckily for all of you, Unchained, one of our incredible sponsors, is waiving their Bitcoin IRA set up fees for a limited time. If you are someone who is looking at your IRA that is heavily allocated to equities and bonds and thinking about rolling some of it into bitcoin, there is not better place to do that than Unchained. Tell them that TFTC sent you.

Stay vigilant out there, freaks.


Final thought...

Remember the wise words of Lord Littlefinger Baelish, "Chaos is a ladder."

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