Too many people are sleeping on the lightning network.
#Bitcoin’s Lightning Network is surging.
— TFTC (@TFTC21) March 19, 2025
Public Lightning transaction volume hit $286.5M in November 2024, up 266% since August 2023.
Four years ago, it was only $12.1M. pic.twitter.com/5OWEqyi3gJ
Don't sleep on the lightning network, freaks. Above is a chart created by the team over at River that highlights the growth of transaction volume flowing through public channels on the lightning network. In November of 2024 the lightning network processed $286.5m in transactions, representing 266% more volume compared to August 2023. This is only the information that the River was able to estimate from public channel data based on conversations they had with lightning node operators and publicly shared data. The volume is likely much higher. Especially when you consider the fact that private channels exist and likely exist between large exchanges settling considerable volume through those channels.
One may look at the chart above and scoff at the reported volume numbers, but I look at that chart and see incredible growth that will likely grow exponentially over time as more people realize the benefits of settling transactions over lightning.
To give you a concrete example of the benefits I'll fill you in on some inside baseball on the business side of TFTC. Over the last six months we've seen an increasing amount of Zaprite invoices from our business counterparts that give us the option to pay in dollars over fiat rails or in bitcoin using the lightning network. Last month I received my first invoice to pay rent for our office space + studio at Bitcoin Park Austin and the fiat option has a 4% premium on it. I decided to pay in bitcoin via the lightning network because I didn't want to pay the premium. That transaction cost me ~$3.00 or ~0.1% of the total value of the payment and settled instantly. I immediately re-bought the bitcoin with the cash I would have paid with if the premium in the invoice didn't exist.
I asked Rod Roudi why he included the premium on fiat and he let me know that it was because it accounted for the fees that would be taken out via Stripe if I paid on that rail. This is a one-off data point of one transaction, but I feel comfortable enough to assume that many more business owners will become aware of the cost savings they can accrue by receiving bitcoin over lightning instead of getting paid via traditional fiat rails like wire transfers, credit card payments running on Visa and Mastercard, and Stripe.
On top of all of this, lightning enables transactions that are impossible over the rails that Stripe, Mastercard and Visa utilize. Particularly microtransactions. With the emergence of AI agents it is becoming clear that these agents are going to need to spend money to accomplish the tasks humans and other AI agents ask them to complete. Some of these tasks will require small payments and others will require larger payments. Over time I believe all of these payments will be flowing through the lightning network utilizing the L402 protocol.
While everyone and their mother is focused on Stripe's growing market share, stablecoins and other flashy payment themes, the lightning network is growing in volume, reliability and awareness at a steady pace. At some point in the next few years I will not be the least bit surprised when the lightning network accounts for a material share of the global payments market.
In my recent conversation with Mel Mattison, he presented a compelling thesis that Bitcoin's long-standing correlation with the Nasdaq is poised to break in 2025. This decoupling, according to Mel, would represent a significant maturation for Bitcoin as an asset class. The catalyst for this divorce comes from shifting global monetary dynamics, where countries like China are moving away from US assets but still maintaining exposure to neutral stores of value like Bitcoin. As sovereign entities begin adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset, market perception will fundamentally change.
"I think what we could be seeing is the beginning of a divorce between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin. And I think that's a very important thing to happen and for it to begin to break down that strong historical correlation with risk on." - Mel Mattison
What makes this thesis particularly promising is how it would validate Bitcoin's original purpose as a unique asset class rather than just another risk-on investment. Mel pointed out that while Bitcoin currently moves in tandem with tech stocks, geopolitical forces are creating conditions where Bitcoin can assert its independent value proposition. As the world moves toward a multipolar financial order, Bitcoin stands to benefit from its status as a neutral monetary asset. This evolution isn't happening overnight, but Mel believes we'll see clear signs of decoupling by summer or fall, potentially coinciding with institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
Check out the full podcast here for more on Trump's economic strategy, gold price predictions, and the future of central banking control.
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Projects Two Cuts in 2025 - via CNBC
Trump to Announce Crypto Policy at Blockworks Summit - Via X
Congressman Tom Emmer SBR to Buy 1 Million Bitcoin - Via X
Bitcoin Price at $5,400 Five Years Ago; 1/3 of Supply Unmoved - Via X
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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/funds.
Final thought...
All in on this new Great Pyramid discovery.
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