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Are these new hodlers down for the cause?
Your Uncle Marty has been pretty gung-ho around this dirty part of the Internet over the last few weeks. Let's be frank, it's hard not to be with all the developments that have surfaced in regards to Bitcoin adoption by some of the world's most respected, prosperous, and followed companies and individuals. After years of being derided as a supporter of a digital currency that is solely leveraged by speculators, drug dealers and terrorists; it's good to be able to counter those dumb tropes by pointing to companies and individuals many around the world consider to be on the cutting edge of innovation and say, "Do these people look like drug dealers, terrorists, and/or speculators to you, Frank?" The recent stream of news has certainly been well received by bitcoiners, as it should be.
2/
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
...
iii. Price dumps, most of the new corporate investors panic sell.
iv. Repeat the usual halvening cycle, as hodlers of last resort hold the line at a higher low and the industry adapts, evolves, routes around the new regulations. Life, uh, finds a way. pic.twitter.com/P1QKnDmQWN
4/ It's easy to argue against the idea of governments crudely banning bitcoin. But this distracts from the other measures they are likely to attempt to contain or coopt the thing.
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
A full ban in some places is still possible, but the policies are probably going to be more crafty.
6/ NgU + corporate holders of bitcoin offer little protection for bitcoin against totalitatian regulation.
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
Most incumbent big businesses around the world are falling over themselves to do as they're told. They also hold their bitcoin in custody. Their nuts are in the vice.
8/ Assuming some high-profile announcements from global regulators, and bitcoin making moves down ~$10k a day, it's very easy to imagine a string of public announcements from corporates announcing the liquidation of their holdings.
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
Most were only in it for the pump anyway.
10/ Although existing big businesses have a lot to gain from bitcoin adoption, they have everything to lose from regulator interventions—which take place both in public...and behind closed doors.
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
Bitcoin upstarts, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
12/ So, once again, people need to make peace with seeing their bitcoin wealth to go up *a lot*, then down *a lot*, all in the near future.
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
But that's not so gloomy, it's exactly what we saw 2013-2014 and 2017-2018. And the bear markets are anything but boring.
15/ Bitcoiners will quickly get creative with the technology (more peer-to-peer, more private, more censorship resistant, less custodial) and with jurisdictional arbitrage.
— Neil Woodfine (@nwoodfine) February 9, 2021
Readying bitcoin's infrastructure for the next—possibly the last—bitcoin bull run of 2025.
However, as our friend Neil Woodfine points out, the rash of good news should not be reason for bitcoiners to let their guards down and throw adversarial thinking out the window. The possibility of these recent developments being a major setup for a big let down cannot be overlooked. Especially considering the types of players involved and their penchant to cater to regulators so they can keep their businesses operational. Are these new hodlers down for the cause? Will they step up to the plate and go to bat for Bitcoin, particularly the ability of individuals to self-custody their bitcoin, if the pressure from regulators gets intense? We shall see.
This issue isn't an endorsement of Neil's prediction. I believe there is a chance that this scenario plays out, but I think it is less likely than Neil seems to believe it is. My belief stems from something I've been harping on incessantly for the last couple of months; we have reached a cultural tipping point that I find is going to be very hard to reverse. Even for the State and their cronies. Confidence in, understanding of, and public support of the Bitcoin network is at all time highs. Uncle Marty only expects this trend to continue. This trend coupled with the fact that Bitcoin is an exponential technology leveraging another exponential technology that immediately preceded it in the Internet leads me to believe, again, that this is going to happen much faster than most people expect. Regardless of any moves by any government to perturb its growth and proliferation.
The State is not only powerless against the inevitable adoption of Bitcoin in the long-term, public trust in the institution of government is eroding quicker than a snowball in a hot tub. Any moves to stifle Bitcoin adoption will be met with fierce push back from an already enraged global populace. With that being said, it's important to think adversarially. Even though I think Neil's prediction is less likely to play out than Bitcoin adoption going exponential, it certainly cannot be ruled out of the realm of possibility.
Keep your head on a swivel, freak.
Final thought...
Back under 200. Bringing senior year of high school Marty to the $200k party.