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Hope you freaks had a great weekend and aren't succumbing to the existential dread that is the beginning of the "work week" we humans have designated for ourselves! Below are a couple of threads that should scare the shit out of you if the Sunday scaries weren't powerful enough this week. The first is from Paranoid Bull and it tackles the macro consequences of our reaction to the 2008 crisis. This is a great complement to last Wednesday's issue of the Ƀent in which we dove into the hyper-fragile situation China has found itself in. Paranoid Bull ties in some more themes that weren't touched on in last week's issue that help paint a broader picture.
The second thread is yet another edition of Brendan's 🔥threads, in which he dives into the looming pension crises in the US. It's not a particularly pretty picture. To retain the ability to pay back future obligations, many pension funds have to maintain an expected annual return of 7%+ in the markets. With a lack of yield in bond markets due to the prolonged suppression of interest rates coupled with negative expected returns for most stocks over the next 7-year period, these funds are being forced further and further along the risk curve to chase yield. Now everyone is swimming in shit, drying the tinder of a fragile, hyper-interconnected system that is dependent on increased risk - to the point of lunacy - to service obligations. Not an ideal situation.
I have a feeling none of this will be ending very gracefully.
Rather than facing the true consequences of the extreme Risk mispricing leading up to that collapse, Central Banks worldwide have worked together to paper over the losses, shifting them to governments.
— Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) November 12, 2018
The simplest way of thinking about what happened is debt that should have been ultimately wiped out completely was papered over and leverage was extended by governments worldwide at extreme levels, re-leveraging the entire System.
— Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) November 12, 2018
Your weekly dose of "I need to buy a bunker" Market Reflexivity:
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) November 11, 2018
Pensions account for their future liabilities by discounting them at an est. return.
Most are projecting +7%/yr, but if you drop to 4%, CA's liability, for instance, goes up by $200bnhttps://t.co/sGSttHWV1h
Potentially. At least I think so.
Final thought...
Passion Pit had a qual run there in 2009-2010.