He did warn everyone that it was his favorite word.
"The scale of the movement of physical gold over the last few months will be recognized in retrospect as the most obvious leading indicator that a tectonic shift in the global monetary order was imminent." I tweeted this chart out with the above commentary late Tuesday night and then hit the pillow for some much needed sleep.
A risky take, considering the fact that I cannot be 100% positive that a tectonic shift in the global monetary order is imminent. However, it's hard not to at least consider the idea that something big is about to happen in regards to the global monetary system with everything going on right now coupled with things that Scott Bessent was saying before he was tapped as Secretary of the Treasury earlier this year.
We'll start with the gold. Look at that chart and please appease my left-side-of-the-bell-curve take on what may be happening. If you compare what's happening now, at a time when the US and global economy seem to be in a relatively good spot, with 2008 and the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis this chart seems a bit odd. Why is there a massive rush to get physical bullion delivered now when things are not all that bad when there was no such rush to physical at a time when Hank Paulson was running around DC screaming, "There will be no cash in the ATMs by next Wednesday if you don't do something!"?
Now look at the 2020 rush to physical. Certainly impressive compared to 2008, but markedly less impressive compared to what we've seen over the last few months. The Big 3 Comex vaults currently hold ~16% more gold than they did in 2021. A year and change into the grandest experiment in central planning the world has ever seen. We were in the middle of a "pandemic" at the time, the global economy had been ground to a halt for more than a year and the global markets had been flooded with TRILLIONS of dollars in a blitzkrieg of liquidity.
If you've been reading this newsletter over the course of the last eight years, you'll know that we're pretty convinced that the real economy has become completely detached from the economic data that is given to us by the government. It's likely that we've been in an unadvertised economic depression for many years despite the fact that equities markets have been on a tear since October 2022. One only has to open the "For You" tab on X to find an endless stream of videos from people (typically sitting in the front seat of their cars) complaining about their financial situations and expressing a feeling of hopelessness (which can lead to depression). Couple those anecdotal data points with deaths of despair, the amount of people working two or three jobs, and the explosion of degenerate professions like "OnlyFans model" and it isn't hard to come to the conclusion that the economy is broken for a large percentage of the population. You don't need to wait for NBER data to make it official.
There's something very different about this flight to physical gold compared to 2020 and 2021. Well, it's not that different. People are flooding to physical because they're betting that things are about to break behind the scenes. Potentially beyond repair. This time may only be different in the sense that the Trump administration has been choreographing their highly disruptive economic policies to the public for the better part of the year. People didn't need to wait for a surprise black swan event to react, they could make the calculated decision that Trump was going to follow through with his campaign promises and place their bets accordingly. And, as you may be able to tell, President Trump is following up with those promises in haste whether you agree with them or not.
Where things get interesting is if part of this flight to physical is being driven by the administration itself. Now, this is pure conjecture at this point but I think it's important to consider a scenario in which the US government is actually doing this.
Why would they do this? Well, you don't have to guess too much. Treasury Secretary Bessent already publicly stated what he believed would happen during this administration (whether it was Trump or Harris) in June of last year. Not only that, he expressed his desire to be in the War Room to help the President navigate through the chaos. That new landscape is a "grand global economic reordering. Something on the order of a Bretton Woods or Plaza Accord."
Scott Bessent before the Election:
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 3, 2025
“In the next few years, we are going to have some kind of grand economic reordering. Something equivalent to a new Bretton Woods. There’s a very good chance that happens in the next 4 years and I’d like to be a part of it.” pic.twitter.com/2LDgk4QAoN
Could the precipitous increase in physical gold being delivered to vaults in New York City be partly driven by the US government getting prepared for the grand economic reordering? I wouldn't be surprised. Not in the least bit.
As everyone throws mud at each other on X over the reciprocal tariffs that were announced today, it's probably best to take the position that they are a smaller part of a bigger play. If there is going to be a grand economic reordering it is probably best that the US be on a more even playing field before sitting down at the table to reorder things with the other significantly important economic players on the geopolitical stage. Tariffs can be viewed as an implicit "we're not fucking around, there's a new team in charge, and we will not get pushed over as this grand reordering takes place".
And if you are paying good enough attention, you should be getting the sense that other nations are at least beginning to come to the same conclusion as Scott Bessent did before making these comments last June. German politicians beginning to question whether or not they should audit their gold being stored in the US is... notable.
I have no certainty about whether or not a grand economic reordering is currently in motion, but I would be lying to you if I said I didn't believe there's a material possibility that's exactly what's going on. What does the economic order look like on the other side of a grand reordering if it is happening? I have no idea.
The only thing I'm certain of is that I have never been happier to have my wealth stored in a distributed peer-to-peer cash system with a hard capped supply native unit that can be controlled by no one.
Embrace the chaos and find safety in sats.
In our recent conversation with Peter St Onge, we explored how today's radical left activism is largely funded through government channels. Peter demonstrated that USAID and various NGOs effectively launder taxpayer dollars to create the illusion of grassroots movements. He cited compelling evidence from BLM riots where identified agitators were found on payrolls of government-funded organizations, and pointed to the recent Tesla protests being dominated by middle-aged government workers rather than passionate ideologues.
"These people are fascinating, right? They're in their 50s. They are pretty obviously government workers... They're not protesting because they care about the future of the country." - Peter St Onge
What makes this revelation so important is the stark contrast Peter drew between MAGA supporters who genuinely believe in their cause versus paid activists defending their funding streams. His research uncovered 24 organizations behind "Tesla takedown attacks" that stand to lose budget under Doge reforms. The exciting conclusion? Once this funding pipeline is cut off, we may discover there isn't actually a significant radical left movement in America at all—just an elaborate financial scheme masquerading as political activism.
Check out the full podcast here for more on Bitcoin's role in economic reform, the corruption in university endowments, and how the media manufactures consent through selective coverage.
Market Dip Stems From Tech Issues, Not Tariffs, Says Bessent - Via X
Trump's Global Tariff Plan Triggers $2 Trillion Market Plunge - via X
Fidelity Debuts No-Fee Bitcoin IRA With Tax Benefits- via X
President Trump Promises Largest Tax Cuts In American History - via X
The first months of the new administration have sparked an unprecedented push for cost- cutting and efficiency within the federal government—but DOGE Can't Fix The Dollar. Join us on April 16th to hear PhD economist Peter St. Onge explain how bitcoin brings true efficiency to governments while protecting your generational wealth. With macro uncertainty driving a dip in bitcoin prices, now is the time to understand the fundamentals driving the global shift to sound money.
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Final thought...
My biggest regret of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 was failing to be as consistent as I was during the first 6.5 years of this rag. Working to nurture that fire again.
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