Keep an eye on how bitcoin reacts to Trump tweets vs. crypto markets from here on out.
I imagine each desperate tweet to incite a market reaction so that the admin can hit one of it's stated KPIs (crypto markets) will have a diminishing marginal effect on bitcoin and an exacerbating effect on crypto.
— Marty Bent (@MartyBent) March 4, 2025
You can see it in these charts. Ethereum is in desperate need of… https://t.co/USAeQmqThb
Here's a quick observation on bitcoin compared to broader crypto that we can take away from the YUGE Pump of March 2nd 2025; it seems pretty clear that crypto markets are desperate for a government bailout while bitcoin is not.
This is made evident by the fact that the broader crypto market is down significantly today compared to bitcoin, which has settled around where it was trading right before Trump's post about the crypto strategic reserve. The crypto markets have proven to have no meaningful product-market-fit outside of pure gambling, they have squeezed the retail markets dry, and the only thing left to drive them higher is the government coming in and buying the bags of founders and the VCs who backed them.
This is in stark contrast to bitcoin, which has established itself as a truly decentralized neutral reserve asset that brings the market a commodity, money and currency in one closed-loop triple accounting system with a native currency unit. Every day more and more people are turning to bitcoin as a savings vehicle and a peer-to-peer currency to facilitate meaningful trade in the real economy.
Look out for the diminishing marginal effect on bitcoin compared to broader crypto if these "tweet from the hip" announcements become more commonplace. I imagine bitcoin will start to react less to these attempts to drive the price of "cryptos" higher while the rest will react immediately and evermore desperately as the specter of the nanny state providing a bailout is presented and rugged.
Bitcoin will eventually ignore these announcements and simply react accordingly when actual flows from any future government action or non-actions materialize or don't.
As we said yesterday, the true strategic bitcoin reserve lies in the wallets of individual Americans and American businesses. Every day a new wave of people have the light bulbs go off in their heads that bitcoin is different than fiat and it is different that crypto. It is the only asset worth storing your wealth in long-term and it is perfectly capable, in fact it is more capable than the incumbent system, of facilitating payments, which removes the need to go through the hassle of converting back and forth between bitcoin and fiat to complete payments
I have an episode of TFTC with Parker Lewis dropping tomorrow that dives into the paragraph above. Make sure you subscribe to the show on your preferred podcasting app (give us a rating and review too!) and/or YouTube + Rumble.
The recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs is working exactly as many Bitcoiners predicted. In my recent conversation with Matt McClintock of Bespoke, he confirmed what I've long suspected: ETFs are serving as a powerful onramp to proper Bitcoin ownership. McClintock highlighted a case study of clients who initially allocated $35 million to Bitcoin ETFs but are now seeking to own the underlying asset after becoming "orange-pilled" through their research journey.
"They enjoyed the economic run-up and then along the way they became orange-pilled. I said, yeah, this is not just a short-term opportunistic investment. This is a fundamentally different way to think about money." - Matt McClintock
This pattern validates a key thesis in the Bitcoin ecosystem that many critics missed. The convenience of ETFs allows traditional investors comfortable entry, but the philosophical awakening that follows often leads them to self-custody. iBit's recent filing to enable in-kind redemptions will accelerate this transition, allowing ETF holders to more easily convert their shares to actual Bitcoin. This natural progression from exposure to ownership represents a significant adoption pathway that's unfolding exactly as expected.
TLDR: ETFs serve as training wheels before investors graduate to real bitcoin
Check out the full podcast here for more on estate tax implications, multi-jurisdictional wealth planning, and the inheritance challenges unique to Bitcoin holders.
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Once accepted, your transaction spreads through the network until a miner adds it to the blockchain, permanently recording it.
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