Which way, Western Man?
Going to keep this short. Bitcoin's relative performance in the face of a broader market dump was rather impressive. As was predictable, everyone and their mother freaked out about the tariffs and markets followed suit, which is hilarious considering that Trump and Bessent have been signaling that their intention was to try to push yields lower while not really caring if equities markets dumped in the short to medium-term.
Bessent specifically has stated he wants "3% inflation, 3% 10Y yields, and 3% GDP growth" while also telling media pundits that "the American Dream is not 'Let them eat flatscreens!'" and "That's a MAG7 problem not a MAGA problem" when asked about the equities market's poor performance. This was all very choreographed, which we discussed in yesterday's letter.
Back to the original point I wanted to make, bitcoin stood very strong today while people were sounding the alarm bells, which reminded me of the most recent conversation I had with Mel Mattison on the TFTC podcast. Go follow Mel if you aren't already. He's made some of the most accurate predictions on the show since we started it almost 8 years ago. One prediction he made two weeks ago when he was last on was that he believes this is the year that bitcoin make a clean break from its correlation with the NASDAQ. This is something to keep an eye on throughout the rest of the year.
Beyond that, the 10Y just fell below 4% for the first time since September, when rates started climbing higher after the Fed started cutting rates. Trump and Bessent are getting exactly what they want at the moment. However, I would implore you to look at a zoomed out 10Y chart to get some perspective.
My caveman brain looks at this long-term chart and thinks that while the efforts to drive the 10Y down are impressive, there's a possibility they may ultimately be futile. Especially if the Fed holds the line on "no more QE".
If they begin lowering rates again and yields react similarly to how they did in September by moving up it could be off to the races toward 6-7%. The chances of a "grand economic reordering" will increase significantly if that happens. That or they capitulate and spin the money printers back on.
We've always said there are only two ways out of this crisis; debasement via a massive expansion of the monetary base or via default - now likely in the form of the grand economic reordering we wrote about yesterday. The odds of the default route beating out the debasement route are rising in my book.
In my recent conversation with economist Peter St. Onge, we explored how legacy media has painted itself into a corner. Peter pointed out that networks like CNN, MSNBC, and even Fox have created entirely separate realities for their viewers, with many Americans completely unaware of major developments depending on which channel they watch. He noted that despite half the country supporting Trump, major networks stubbornly refuse to cater to this audience—unlike Fox News, which successfully identified and served this massive underserved market.
"Yeah, they're getting out competed though individuals like yourself shows like this many others they're very obviously falling to the wayside of at least the younger generations." - Peter St Onge
As I observed during our conversation, younger generations have almost completely abandoned traditional news sources in favor of podcasts, independent content creators, and social media. Peter explained this using the concept of "local peaks"—media organizations are trapped in their current model, unable to evolve without losing their existing audience, even though they can see higher mountains in the distance. The demographic shifts are accelerating this transition, as Gen X replaces Boomers as the dominant voting bloc, bringing their media consumption habits with them.
Check out the full podcast here for more on the Austrian economics perspective, Elon Musk's government role, and how Bitcoin fits into Trump's strategic vision.
Fed Balance Sheet Decline Overlooked In Market Downturn Analysis - via X
Trump Predicts Economic Boom Following His Election Win - via X
Pelosi's 1996 Stance on China Tariffs Resurfaces - via X
Trump's Color Varies By Network Raises Media Bias Questions - via X
EU Considers $1 Billion Fine on X for Disinformation - via X
The first months of the new administration have sparked an unprecedented push for cost- cutting and efficiency within the federal government—but DOGE Can't Fix The Dollar. Join us on April 16th to hear PhD economist Peter St. Onge explain how bitcoin brings true efficiency to governments while protecting your generational wealth. With macro uncertainty driving a dip in bitcoin prices, now is the time to understand the fundamentals driving the global shift to sound money.
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Final thought...
I've been sleeping like shit. Big sleep guy. Need to fix this.
Enjoy your weekend, freaks.
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