There is no turning back.
Welcome to this Saturday's edition of the TFTC Newsletter, where we highlight the most interesting predictions from our recent podcast episodes. This week, we've extracted three forecasts from our conversations with Rod Roudi and James Lavish.
James Lavish predicted that following SAB 122 (which repeals SAB 121), major banks will begin offering Bitcoin services and create new financial products around Bitcoin. This regulatory change means banks no longer need to hold Bitcoin as a liability on their balance sheets, opening the door for major institutions like Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo to enter the space.
With regulatory barriers falling, banks will initially allow customers to buy and hold Bitcoin directly through their banking relationships. Over time, James predicts banks will introduce lending products, collateralized products, mortgage options, and lines of credit based on Bitcoin.
This represents a fundamental shift in how traditional finance interacts with Bitcoin. Charles Schwab's recent announcement about developing a platform to trade crypto provides early confirmation of this trend.
James believes the real game-changer will be when investors begin reallocating funds from the $330 trillion bond market into Bitcoin. When that happens, he predicts Bitcoin's market value could "double very rapidly" as institutional capital flows in at unprecedented levels.
Despite hash price being at basement levels (around 4.5 cents per terahash per day, roughly 60% below the previous cycle's mean), Bitcoin's network hash rate continues to hit all-time highs. Marty and James believe this unusual growth suggests nation states are secretly mining Bitcoin at scale.
Their thesis is that nations are employing a stealth strategy to acquire Bitcoin. Rather than purchasing through OTC desks where large buys would signal their intentions and drive up the price, countries are setting up mining operations in remote locations where energy costs are low or irrelevant. This allows them to accumulate Bitcoin without alerting the market.
The kingdom of Bhutan provides a real-world example - they were mining Bitcoin since 2020, but this only became public knowledge when they were caught up in the bankruptcy proceedings of Celsius and BlockFi.
The "unknown pool" of miners now represents approximately 13% of the network, providing strong evidence that significant mining power exists outside the public sphere. This suggests we may be witnessing a silent race among nation states to secure their position in the Bitcoin network before others catch up.
Rod Roudi and Marty predict that universities as they currently exist won't be around in the same form when their children reach college age in the next 10-12 years.
Universities are receiving blowback due to controversial admission policies and questionable endowment management. Meanwhile, alternative education models like University of Austin are gaining traction with approaches focused on practical skills and critical thinking. These new models are incorporating Bitcoin education and challenging traditional academia.
The explosive growth of AI tools is making self-directed education more effective. Rod mentioned how he's already training his daughter to craft AI prompts during car rides to school. They noted that the Montessori model is perfectly complemented by AI tools that can provide personalized education at scale.
Both hosts have young children (Rod's are 6, 4, 3, and 2; Marty's are 5 and almost 3 with another on the way), and they expect this transformation to force universities to either adapt radically or face obsolescence within a 12-year timeframe.
Bitcoin mining hardware (ASICs) will not receive the same tariff exemptions recently granted to computers and semiconductors by the Trump administration. While devices under HTSUS code 8471 are exempt, ASIC miners fall under code 8543.70.9960 for "electrical machines with individual functions."
U.S. miners currently face a 10% flat tax on equipment imported from Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs, replacing the originally planned higher reciprocal tariffs (24-36%) that were paused during ongoing trade negotiations. This 10% increase significantly impacts mining profitability in an already challenging market.
Industry responses vary:
Interestingly, Southeast Asian ASIC prices have slightly decreased while U.S.-based hardware prices have risen. Trading activity has slowed in late April, though this could be due to normal market fluctuations rather than tariff concerns.
The industry awaits potential trade deals that could eliminate these taxes completely.
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