The future won’t wait for you.

@TFTC21

"For the first time since 1971, what is considered liquidity will have fundamentally changed. People are going to run towards gold and towards Bitcoin. They're not going to run to Treasury bonds." - @porterstansb

@TFTC21

Read more signal, less noise: tftc.io/bitcoin-brief

@TFTC21

A court can't move your bitcoin. But it can cloud the title. New York is trying to classify 39,069 dormant bitcoin addresses as "abandoned property." The first real holder just stepped up to fight it and his motion forces the court to confront a fundamental question: is a bitcoin address a legal person that can be served papers and accused of abandoning property? No. But that's not the point. The real threat was never on-chain. No judge can spend a UTXO without a private key. The danger is at the edges. A court can wrap your coins in a legal cloud that makes every regulated off-ramp, exchanges, banks, custodians, compliance departments, treat them as encumbered property. Freeze, question, delay, block. This is why self-custody can't be reduced to a hardware wallet slogan. It's technical possession + legal posture + privacy discipline + liquidity strategy. If you hold your keys but dox yourself into every legal venue on earth, you've traded one risk for another. And lawmakers need to wake up. We've watched multiple waves of decade-plus dormant coins move over the last nine months. Dormancy on-chain is not abandonment. For many bitcoiners, not moving coins for ten years is the point. The law should make that explicit. Bitcoin was built to make final settlement possible without permission from courts, custodians, or banks. That doesn't mean those institutions disappear. It means they move their attacks to the edges. This lawsuit is one of those edge attacks.

@TFTC21

TFTC 766 w/ @porterstansb: "In 1930, the federal government was 3% of GDP. Today, government is about 60%. Nobody is that rich." We discuss: ⚡ Social Security is a Ponzi ⚡ 2029 is the deadline ⚡ Civil war is coming

@TFTC21

Data center memory demand: $60B in 2024 → $1.4T by 2030. Three companies make it. No one else is coming. Every AI rack ships with thousands of gigabytes of HBM physically bonded to the GPU. Hyperscalers are pre-paying billions just to secure supply. This is the bottleneck no one's talking about.

@TFTC21

Outset CEO Aaron Cannon on why people are more honest with AI: "When you're talking to someone, they want to impress you. They want to look a certain way." "Before you know it, people are talking about how they want to live long enough to see their grandkids graduate high school."

@TFTC21

CNBC interviewer questions Trump on family crypto profits. Trump: "I could know about it. There's nothing illegal, there's nothing wrong with it. I could know."

@TFTC21

Miller Value Partners on CNBC: "The fundamental case for Bitcoin has never been stronger. The marginal obligations being created that are unfunded by our country is 50% bigger than the entire market cap of Bitcoin."

@TFTC21

Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 is back online after the US government lifted export controls. But the model that came back isn't the same model that left. BridgeMind re-ran Fable 5 on their BridgeBench suite and the numbers are brutal. Debugging dropped from 86.2 to 25.9. Refactoring fell from 73.6 to 38.4. Hallucination resistance went from 75.9 to 61.7. New guardrails are flagging too many legitimate tasks and falling back to the older, weaker Opus 4.8 model. Fable 5 launched June 9. Three days later the US government imposed export controls after Amazon researchers found a way to bypass its safety guardrails. Anthropic couldn't verify user nationality in real time so it shut the model off for everyone globally. Commerce lifted restrictions June 30 after Anthropic added a new safety classifier that blocks the reported bypass in 99%+ of cases. When it flags a request, the query gets rerouted to Opus 4.8. That fallback mechanism is the problem. It's catching routine coding work, not just exploits. Anthropic acknowledged this would happen, saying the update "comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks." The guardrails that satisfied the government are degrading the product for developers. And it raises the same question we keep coming back to with closed-source AI. Anthropic turned off their most capable model for every user on the planet overnight because a government told them to. Now it's back in a nerfed state. Users have no control and no recourse. This is why open-weight AI models matter. If the weights are open, no company or government can flip a switch and degrade your tools overnight.

@TFTC21

SpaceX bought Cursor for $60 billion. Now the biggest question in AI is whether Cursor can remain an open platform. Cursor's value proposition has always been model agnosticism. Users pick from Anthropic, OpenAI, or whatever model is best at the moment. Both labs count Cursor among their largest customers. But once the acquisition closes, they'll effectively be doing business with Elon Musk, a direct competitor in frontier AI. There's precedent for this going sideways. When OpenAI tried to acquire Windsurf last year, Anthropic immediately cut off access to Claude. Anthropic has also already moved to limit both OpenAI and SpaceX from using its models. But the picture is more nuanced. Anthropic recently struck a multi-billion dollar compute deal with SpaceX, suggesting Amodei and Musk may put differences aside to compete against OpenAI. And OpenAI's startup fund was one of Cursor's earliest investors, set to receive a significant return in SpaceX stock from this deal. Meanwhile, Cursor is already training its next model using 10-20x more compute than it previously had access to, powered by SpaceX infrastructure. It's also expanding beyond coding into design and enterprise. It could effectively become SpaceX's enterprise AI arm. Palantir CEO Alex Karp highlighted the underlying tension this week. Businesses are tired of being locked into frontier AI labs. Model independence is becoming a priority. The parallel to Bitcoin is clear. Closed platforms create dependency. Open platforms create freedom. When someone can turn off your access at any moment, you're not really in control.

@TFTC21

Saylor on Channel 4 News: "Bitcoin is the world's most secure digital property network. It's 21 million blocks. It's a cyber Manhattan. Right now it's touching 500 million people. There's no reason why it shouldn't touch 5 billion people."

@TFTC21

Kevin Hassett on latest jobs report: "I think that if you smooth through the ups and downs over the last three or four months, we're on a really steep upward trajectory."

@TFTC21

"For the first time since 1971, what is considered liquidity will have fundamentally changed. People are going to run towards gold and towards Bitcoin. They're not going to run to Treasury bonds." - @porterstansb

@TFTC21

Read more signal, less noise: tftc.io/bitcoin-brief

@TFTC21

A court can't move your bitcoin. But it can cloud the title. New York is trying to classify 39,069 dormant bitcoin addresses as "abandoned property." The first real holder just stepped up to fight it and his motion forces the court to confront a fundamental question: is a bitcoin address a legal person that can be served papers and accused of abandoning property? No. But that's not the point. The real threat was never on-chain. No judge can spend a UTXO without a private key. The danger is at the edges. A court can wrap your coins in a legal cloud that makes every regulated off-ramp, exchanges, banks, custodians, compliance departments, treat them as encumbered property. Freeze, question, delay, block. This is why self-custody can't be reduced to a hardware wallet slogan. It's technical possession + legal posture + privacy discipline + liquidity strategy. If you hold your keys but dox yourself into every legal venue on earth, you've traded one risk for another. And lawmakers need to wake up. We've watched multiple waves of decade-plus dormant coins move over the last nine months. Dormancy on-chain is not abandonment. For many bitcoiners, not moving coins for ten years is the point. The law should make that explicit. Bitcoin was built to make final settlement possible without permission from courts, custodians, or banks. That doesn't mean those institutions disappear. It means they move their attacks to the edges. This lawsuit is one of those edge attacks.

@TFTC21

TFTC 766 w/ @porterstansb: "In 1930, the federal government was 3% of GDP. Today, government is about 60%. Nobody is that rich." We discuss: ⚡ Social Security is a Ponzi ⚡ 2029 is the deadline ⚡ Civil war is coming

@TFTC21

Data center memory demand: $60B in 2024 → $1.4T by 2030. Three companies make it. No one else is coming. Every AI rack ships with thousands of gigabytes of HBM physically bonded to the GPU. Hyperscalers are pre-paying billions just to secure supply. This is the bottleneck no one's talking about.

@TFTC21

Outset CEO Aaron Cannon on why people are more honest with AI: "When you're talking to someone, they want to impress you. They want to look a certain way." "Before you know it, people are talking about how they want to live long enough to see their grandkids graduate high school."

@TFTC21

CNBC interviewer questions Trump on family crypto profits. Trump: "I could know about it. There's nothing illegal, there's nothing wrong with it. I could know."

@TFTC21

Miller Value Partners on CNBC: "The fundamental case for Bitcoin has never been stronger. The marginal obligations being created that are unfunded by our country is 50% bigger than the entire market cap of Bitcoin."

@TFTC21

Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 is back online after the US government lifted export controls. But the model that came back isn't the same model that left. BridgeMind re-ran Fable 5 on their BridgeBench suite and the numbers are brutal. Debugging dropped from 86.2 to 25.9. Refactoring fell from 73.6 to 38.4. Hallucination resistance went from 75.9 to 61.7. New guardrails are flagging too many legitimate tasks and falling back to the older, weaker Opus 4.8 model. Fable 5 launched June 9. Three days later the US government imposed export controls after Amazon researchers found a way to bypass its safety guardrails. Anthropic couldn't verify user nationality in real time so it shut the model off for everyone globally. Commerce lifted restrictions June 30 after Anthropic added a new safety classifier that blocks the reported bypass in 99%+ of cases. When it flags a request, the query gets rerouted to Opus 4.8. That fallback mechanism is the problem. It's catching routine coding work, not just exploits. Anthropic acknowledged this would happen, saying the update "comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks." The guardrails that satisfied the government are degrading the product for developers. And it raises the same question we keep coming back to with closed-source AI. Anthropic turned off their most capable model for every user on the planet overnight because a government told them to. Now it's back in a nerfed state. Users have no control and no recourse. This is why open-weight AI models matter. If the weights are open, no company or government can flip a switch and degrade your tools overnight.

@TFTC21

SpaceX bought Cursor for $60 billion. Now the biggest question in AI is whether Cursor can remain an open platform. Cursor's value proposition has always been model agnosticism. Users pick from Anthropic, OpenAI, or whatever model is best at the moment. Both labs count Cursor among their largest customers. But once the acquisition closes, they'll effectively be doing business with Elon Musk, a direct competitor in frontier AI. There's precedent for this going sideways. When OpenAI tried to acquire Windsurf last year, Anthropic immediately cut off access to Claude. Anthropic has also already moved to limit both OpenAI and SpaceX from using its models. But the picture is more nuanced. Anthropic recently struck a multi-billion dollar compute deal with SpaceX, suggesting Amodei and Musk may put differences aside to compete against OpenAI. And OpenAI's startup fund was one of Cursor's earliest investors, set to receive a significant return in SpaceX stock from this deal. Meanwhile, Cursor is already training its next model using 10-20x more compute than it previously had access to, powered by SpaceX infrastructure. It's also expanding beyond coding into design and enterprise. It could effectively become SpaceX's enterprise AI arm. Palantir CEO Alex Karp highlighted the underlying tension this week. Businesses are tired of being locked into frontier AI labs. Model independence is becoming a priority. The parallel to Bitcoin is clear. Closed platforms create dependency. Open platforms create freedom. When someone can turn off your access at any moment, you're not really in control.

@TFTC21

Saylor on Channel 4 News: "Bitcoin is the world's most secure digital property network. It's 21 million blocks. It's a cyber Manhattan. Right now it's touching 500 million people. There's no reason why it shouldn't touch 5 billion people."

@TFTC21

Kevin Hassett on latest jobs report: "I think that if you smooth through the ups and downs over the last three or four months, we're on a really steep upward trajectory."