Matthew Mežinskis discusses Bitcoin’s potential to hit $800,000 by 2025, its role in strategic reserves, and its transformative impact on global finance and geopolitics.
This episode of TFTC with Matthew Mežinskis explores Bitcoin's potential to reach $800,000 by 2025, its role in a U.S. strategic reserve proposal, and its transformative impact on global finance. The discussion covers Bitcoin's superiority over traditional stores of value, the feasibility of a Bitcoin-backed monetary system akin to Bretton Woods 2.0, and its geopolitical implications, including Putin’s recognition of its value as a hedge against sanctions. While optimistic about Bitcoin’s ascent, the episode also highlights challenges such as market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the complexities of balancing national debt with sound money principles.
This podcast offers a compelling exploration of Bitcoin's transformative role in global finance, from its potential to reach $800,000 to its emerging use in strategic reserves. By blending historical context, market insights, and geopolitical analysis, the episode highlights Bitcoin as more than a technological innovation—it's a fundamental shift in the way value is understood and utilized. As Bitcoin evolves into a global monetary anchor, the implications for governments, businesses, and individuals are profound, marking the beginning of a new era in financial systems.
0:00 - Intro
0:48 - ATH, 4 currencies left in the way
5:02 - The Trump wave
10:56 - chart - Getting gold/btc on Fed balance sheet
24:32 - Unchained
25:23 - Optimally acquiring strategic reserve
30:50 - Zaprite & SOTE
32:23 - Triffin Dilemma and spending cuts
39:07 - How hard money helps central banks
43:35 - Yield curve/Fed policy mismatch
49:34 - Russian bitcoin
54:38 - Trump's cabinet and Scott Bessent
58:28 - Supercycle?
1:06:03 - Power curve
1:09:07 - Saylor's convertible notes
1:15:57 - Base money
1:25:41 - Breton Woods 2.0?
1:42:42 - Fiat money exponential growth
1:46:56 - Job market
1:52:51 - Bitcoin Lindy effect
2:01:12 - Wrap up
(00:00) here's another interesting chart really quick I'll show you in December 2025 that would take you to $800,000 per Bitcoin we are on the ascendency here right I mean just look at this curve man imagine being Peter shiff and trying to bet against this rumors behind the scenes here whether it's an executive order or a bill the Trump Administration is very adamant about following up on the promise of a bigcoin strategic Reserve within the first 100 days my biggest worry for them is that they go too hard too fast and people just start dumping
(00:29) treasuries cuz they're like well the US is explicitly saying that they're worthless I hate the fact that someone like Putin is championing Bitcoin but he's going to know more than anybody else you can't do too much with gold that mad dictator is saying he recognizes the value of [Music] Bitcoin we meet again we sit down Tuesday December 7th it's 8:48 a.m.
(00:55) Central Time in the United States the current price of Bitcoin is $17,988 what a world what time to be alive congratulations Marty it's good to speak to you this quarterly update first time over 100k I know you've made the rounds with your accolades over the past couple weeks but uh it's good to speak to you congrats congrats to you congrats to you too sir it's been than it's been a long time coming it has indeed and as we all know we're just getting started so what could be more exciting than that as the world is burning all around us
(01:43) here in Eastern [Laughter] Europe we got the money thing working for us six figure Bitcoin how big is this it's big um I have one that I can show you here uh okay so um yeah it's big it's big so we have uh you know for a long time let shouldn't say a long time this this year from early part of this year we passed the the pound sterling as the uh as the uh fifth largest fiat currency uh it was about a trillion trillion one dollar worth and Bitcoin passed that so now there's only these four left the Yen the Euro the Yuan and the dollar as far
(02:29) as the the monetary base goes but I got one here just to show you a little comparison with gold and silver and Bitcoin and all the different buckets that we have uh you might have seen some people tweeting about it if you count up all the silver ever minded in the world that's about my calculation about 1.8 1.
(02:52) 85 trillion dollar SO2 trillion market cap takes us over that and uh and yeah so every conceivable metric now Bitcoin has been above the the the store of value functions of silver actually as I've been tracking it it's been about four years uh because I take off industrial usage because you can't really huddle that but silver you got this chart as well and this is at my website Porkopolis dotop money you can you can see all these metrics breaking out gold silver Bitcoin and where it fits in the in the loop so the next one up if you just look at gold and silver
(03:27) is the golden central banks and that's about three trillion ion dollar worth of gold it's about 1.2 billion ounces of gold bitcoin's only a trillion behind that Marty so we continue to grow we continue to uh accrete into the Legacy money supplies of the world and I think it's very interesting very exciting and um you know when I started to do this these updates um you know over six years ago gold was like if you looked at gold in central banks both based on the amount of gold that there was and the price at the time
(04:06) you were well under 2 trillion dollar worth of gold but as we moved on six years later inflation gold prices spiked a lot this year you know $2,700 or so at the moment takes us to three trillion and I think that's probably some indication of how things are going to continue to go as Bitcoin Bitcoin Hawks on these different uh money supp supplies and buckets of value uh they're just going to keep growing as well as Bitcoin uh but as we know Bitcoin has much better utility and grows much faster so it's a nice little
(04:43) I think illustration right there that uh it's all going to keep growing in dollar terms even if it's somewhat finite like gold or you know definitely finite like Bitcoin um as long as the the dollar is still around it's just number go up Tech yeah last time we met was right before the election or a couple months before the election a lot has changed what what do you what do you think uh what would you put the the weight of trump becoming president and all this talk of the Strategic Reserve behind the new recent price moves
(05:24) versus just us going through a typical Bitcoin cycle and the um manifestation of a trump Victory and the talk of a strategic Reserve just being coincidental and where we are in the cycle yeah it's interesting uh alignment for sure with the next phase of the cycle you know we're going into if if we are on a four-year cycle right we're going into a big one next year so the alignment is certainly interesting and I I think as most people probably have said on your show I mean Trump's going to be very good for Bitcoin for
(06:01) taxes um so not surprised that that those things happen that those things lined up the Strategic Reserve is a very interesting question and um you know if they do it I hope that they put it in the treasury I hope that the FED doesn't do it or somehow he doesn't Strongarm the FED to do it because then it's uh it's much of a wonky it doesn't you know it doesn't it's not going to help the national debt it's not going to help those things so if they put you know if if the treasury the United States Treasury actually holds Bitcoin then I think
(06:38) that's a really actual strategic reserve and it would be it would be very good be very good you know something to cut into the debt um that's you know flying quite high at the moment 20 cents out of every dollar is printed uh in debt in debt so if you think of the 35 trillion or so right 20% of that is roughly the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet how much treasuries they own that means basically one in five uh ratio 20 cents on the dollar is actually printed money uh that represents the United States debt so anything you can do to
(07:21) put actual hard money sound money against that would be very good but um we'll see how they do it you know I don't know it's Trump is is turning a lot of heads and uh doing a lot of fake outs with his picks uh so we'll see well let's jump into this because Cynthia lumus has put forth the Strategic Reserve Bill the Bitcoin Act and the mechanics of that are such that the treasury would hold the Bitcoin and one of the means in which they would originally acquire Bitcoin is take the gold notes that they hold at the FED which are currently
(08:01) priced at $42 an ounce I believe right right and appropriately repic those to the market price as it stands today and then use that Delta to buy a big slug of Bitcoin what what what is the what are the Dynamics at play there how how's this actually going to work and what does it mean that the treasury has gold notes marked at $42 an ounce at the FED yeah your guess is as good as mine I mean it's also a question of whether they even have the gold that's a that's a whole another conspiracy theory in the financial markets you know you got to go
(08:36) to the likes of uh Gata there these people have been hard at it for years saying that the Federal Reserve has been basically manipulating the price of gold lower since the end of the Breton Woods standard um I can show you a ratio of that actually uh let me let me pull it up here but just to talk around it I would say um I would say that yeah it's the United States is the only country in the world that does not value its gold at market right they Market at this this old statutory $42 an ounce which was the sort of last you know first it was $20
(09:24) then it was $35 under Roosevelt and then eventually went up to like $42 was the last uh the last gasp of air that they could uh could uh Market it at where did I have this how does how does that work how could you they're just it what it does is it leaves room for the United States Federal Reserve to be squirmy with the other assets that it holds on its balance sheet if it had to respond to the value of gold then gold would become a large larger part of the asset side of their balance sheet you follow and if it's a larger side of the asset
(10:09) part of their balance sheet first of all that would actually bode well for the dollar or you know it would it would uh it would increase the backing right if if the price was going up but it would also mean that the Federal Reserve in order to balance the monetary base which is the liability side of the balance sheet would have to not not buy as many us treasuries and not buying as many US treasuries is bad for the treasury it's bad for the government right they want that floor of the Federal Reserve purchasing uh gold so here here's a
(10:45) here's one this is not exactly the chart I wanted to show you but it's going to show you uh it's going to show you a little bit of a flavor of what I was speaking about here take a little bit to load this I've shown you this chart before right so this is the United States federal debt I think I have this going to September yeah let's all right United States federal debt all right 35 trillion September this is of September 2024 and then let's look at what the Central Bank what the Federal Reserve holds as an asset okay
(11:19) there's the Federal Reserve basically it's the balance sheet right as an asset Federal Reserve this is I'm counting the treasuries that the Federal Reserve owns as an asset and as a percentage peaked at 30% during covid right almost 30% 28% now it's down to about 19% so that's where I was saying before one in5 or 20 cents on the dollar is actually printed money of the federal reserve's debt if gold was marked to Market uh on the federal reserve's balance sheet gold would eat into this ratio and they would have less
(11:57) flexibility to buy more debt or sell more debt whichever they want to do and as we know they like to have these squirly terms like monetary elasticity and flexibility and uh elastic money supply and you know they like to have control so that is why uh the United States Federal Reserve has never um has never uh Mark to market the gold on this books let me find you uh another chart there you can go ahead and keep talking if you want but I I'll find you another one actually shows the gold percentage mark to Market I'm
(12:40) trying to do the math here in my calculator it just seems like Voodoo to me like how could you mark something at 98% below its market value and just not recognize the value that it's actually trading at it's King Dollar Baby King Dollar Alan span made a quote in the 9s that g harps on a lot he said the Federal Reserve some I'm paraphrasing he says the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world stand ready to sell gold should the price rise he said a statement as simple as that right and Allan Greenspan was
(13:21) famous for what was called fed speak right and you had to sort of decipher what he was saying he wasn't being uh very transparent he would always have these yeah Voodoo type terminology in any event uh people are always trying to interpret what was happening there and Gata if you're really interested in this good on the rabbit hole like g gold antitrust action committee they've like sued the government a thousand times and all these things they claim that the gold you know is not there again I have no idea it might be there might not be
(13:55) there I have no idea uh it's supposedly under the New York fed and in Fort um they claim that they've basically leased it out to different banks around the world which would lower the price it means they basically sold it off their books but they still keep it on their books so uh if if that is the case um obviously that would bring turmoil to the markets and probably yeah gold would go up way more in value uh and there would be just all sorts of craziness so um you I just don't know how what would actually happen if uh but but to me
(14:33) that's the more interesting story about this with gold is gold is going up in price uh central banks have been buying gold since 2008 and everybody knows that gold does have a traditional store value uh but we got Bitcoin on here as well and Bitcoin is much better you know so when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 one of the things that you know Mr smart uh War dictator Putin did was he had his Forex reserves now Forex reserves are like Russia the Russian Central Bank holds bonds of bundis bonds in Germany or treasuries in the United States and
(15:14) he left those Forex reserves in the Securities clearing markets like we have fedwire it's called fed wire Securities in the United States in Europe in Europe it's called Euro clear like the actual custody of those bonds was in those markets and they were trying to sell them the moment that they invaded in February 2022 but they were they they froze them and so so now Europe and the US have $300 billion do of Russian Central Bank Forex reserves but but Russia has as well on top of that about $200 billion wor gold
(15:49) reserves which I don't think a lot of people are talking about it is true that Russia is struggling we can talk about that later if you want but they have $200 billion dollar worth of gold reserves that are in Russia like the gold is presumably there so that that has protected them a little bit it's Protected Their currency but as everybody knows Bitcoin is much better and um if you want to have a sound money that's backing your currency uh you want to have something obviously that you can uh move around in a much more secure way
(16:25) be backed up in a much more secure way and as we know the Bitcoin Bitcoin can do that so that's where I think it's going to be very interesting when states start to actually figure this out you know just like Michael sailor figure this out and how they're going to actually put this stuff on the balance sheet um so yeah it's a long way of saying I do think that the gold is they're going to have to sort out how much how this gold is actually valued in the treasury's balance sheet and federal reserves balance sheet in
(16:54) the United States but then um once you have Bitcoin on there as well and it's it's Open Seas and everybody understands that the United States government can't control Bitcoin it's buying Bitcoin the price is going to rise much faster for that as well so it's a double whammy frankly uh if they can't control this this little scenario that you mentioned about pivoting out of gold and into Bitcoin uh they're going to certainly need to be careful yeah what I mean I'm just trying to think like would it immediately blow out the fed's
(17:31) balance sheet or completely restructure it if the treasury calls the notes reprices them up to 2700 from $42 it would immediately uh inflate the value of it um what that would do to the liability side of the balance sheet which is the printing press the monetary base um I presume they would just match it with with keystrokes uh on that side saying that okay now this this matches your Bank Reserves um as well and then with that like you said with that increase they can switch to Pivot into Bitcoin but even with that scenario that's still
(18:18) just on the federal reserve's balance sheet uh the gold is on the Federal Reserves balance sheet there is a little bit on the treasury uh some but not nearly as much it's on the Federal Reserves balance sheet so that's what I was saying before I don't know the you know the Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent it's supposed to be right for all weird legal reasons as we know and people like to talk about and study I mean the value of the currency the money supply all this stuff it's supposed to be independent it's supposed to not be able
(18:48) to be compelled by Congress to affect the value of currency or any president even though we know that it is we know that that is the case I mean Trump is going to be compel them more than probably to do things and get interest rates low when he wants them but uh yeah I don't I don't know how they're going to uh print money or do this gold revalue thing and then move it on to the treasury's balance sheet like that would be great to to do that to have it on the treasury's balance sheet but um I don't know the mechanics of it I
(19:26) haven't I haven't looked into it yeah CU that's the other part too they want to immediately repic call the gold and then sell it to buy Bitcoin so it's uh and this goes back to the same thing you got to ask yourself if it's actually there it's actually there that's like I I've been having a lot of discussions with people behind the scenes too and the number one question is that the most efficient way because when you think of United States explicitly going to acquire Bitcoin as strategic reserve the way in which they do that is going to be
(20:02) massively important because they have this massive debt problem this massive Treasury Market and my biggest worry for them is that they go too hard too fast and decrease the um the faith in in the treasury market and completely blow that out so that's if they get too hard too fast and people just start dumping treasuries cuz they're like well the US is essentially explicitly saying that they're worthless and they prefer this digital currency in Bitcoin to to their own debt um that could be that could cause a massive problem because
(20:43) the treasuries are underlying a lot of the financial system as collateral indeed and this is going to you know EV it's eventually going to force the hand of governments as you and I both know and hopefully for a good way right to temper unnecessary Wars and all the rest um but in the meantime you know you're going to want to make sure that you get a hold of it without completely exploding the markets and uh probably thinking about that a lot um you know they've been selling a lot right over the years that they've
(21:25) confiscated rightly wrongly talk about that but they've been selling a lot of that just on the market for tickets that they print anyway so that's a bit bizarre um I can show you this is like there's a lot on this chart let's let's just put like Switzerland France dollar okay so here's the gold price on the right Axis it's been going up as we see here this is only to March of this year this is actually way up more even but uh if you see here gold like in the 9s like look at Switzerland was always a huge part of
(22:05) its balance sheet um and they didn't actually even Mark to Market in the 90s that's another thing Switzerland didn't mark to Market until 2000 um but in the 90s it was actually over the main liability the the monetary base that they that they print the gold value um and this goes back again to like pegging things against gold and stuff you're going to get get weird uh metrics like that if you actually Market to Market but anyway uh the long and short of it is if you look at the United States compared to others it's they're
(22:38) all around the same levels now uh relative right I mean Britain stupidly sold all their gold the uh former Chancellor of the ex Checker Gordon Brown and former prime minister he like famously sold it at the bottom like the start of the 2000s sold like most of the UK's gold so that was pretty stupid but uh the the rest you can see Switzerland the US uh France 10 10 to 20% all right here it says as of March Mark to Market it was 10% so it's probably a little bit bit even more that's marked to Market so the actual gold if you Market to Market
(23:18) divided by the monetary base it's going to be a little little bit more even whereas if you don't Market to Market it's like zero it's like you know 0.1% so yeah it's a lot of money um you know that's 500 you know if we assume if the monetary base is 5 trillion right uh which it is roughly 5 trillion in change 10% of that is 500 billion so 500 billion dollars worth of bitcoin would be one of the biggest holders in the world right it's quarter of the market cap right now right so and it's only going to explode it obviously when you buy I mean the price
(24:09) is on the margin so if you buy you know obviously they're not they can't they got to be careful with that so um it's very interesting it's very interesting the gold yeah the gold uh rub makes it makes it a little bit more complicated because they could explode the gold market as well sup freaks this rip of tftc was brought to you by our good friends at bit key bit key makes Bitcoin easy to use and hard to lose it is a hardware wallet that natively embeds into a two3 multisig you have one key on the hardware wallet one key on your
(24:47) mobile device and block stores a key in the cloud for you this is an incredible Hardware device for your friends and family or maybe yourself who have Bitcoin on exchanges and have for a long time but haven't taken a step to self- custody cuz they're worried about the complications of setting up a private public heair securing that seed phrase setting up a pin setting up a passphrase again bit key makes it easy to use hard to lose it's the easiest 0o to one step your first step to self custody if you have friends and family on the exchanges
(25:17) who haven't moved it off tell them to pick up a big key go to bit keyworld use the key tftc 20 at checkout for 20% off your order that's bit keyworld code tc20 well that's the question question that has been flying around some of the people I've been talking with is like all right let's let's think about this strategically the Strategic Reserve strategically and how to acquire the Bitcoin without blowing up both the treasury and and the cold markets yeah in a way um which could create a lot of chaos and who knows maybe that's what
(25:50) the Trump Administration is looking for this chaos and we'll get the scop ascent and his history particularly around currency trades and the way he's been posturing this year but what would your ideal strategic Reserve accumulation mechanism be so there's been talks of maybe you issue treasuries you raise cash and obviously the yield curve is a bit wonky right now and you want to sort of smooth that out so uh and there's Demand on the long end of the curve is falling so how do you fix the curve um by driving
(26:29) demands to the long end of the curve maybe you issue 10 30-year treasuries and you take 10 to 20% of the cash proceeds that are collected from those auctions you put it in a Bitcoin hold it within the bond structure and then let the bond holder um benefit from the appreciation of the Bitcoin um when the when the uh Bond comes to term at the end of the life cycle sort of drive down the yields on the long end of the curve and then at the same time have a more calculated mechanical way of accumulating Bitcoin via these
(27:09) auctions would the bond holder benefit because of the yield compression at the end or with the bond holder benefit because of some sort of participation in the upside of the Bitcoin the ladder okay uh yeah man I mean there's many ways to do it many ways of skin a cat but uh like I said from the top the thing you have to do is keep it in the treasury because that benefits over the long run us taxpayers it it's a solution to the national debt problem and like you said you also have a way to sort of at the moment even though I know
(27:49) both you and I are kind of not from not so fond of this narrative but you you have a way to appease the uh the Bond vigilantes as they say the uh you have a way to appease people that still want the US dollar to be a strong currency in the world I mean uh well look if it's got to be it's got to be if you want a strong currency you got to you got to have it backed by Bitcoin there's really there's no other there's no other way not even appease the Bond vigilantes it's just a in my opinion a stark recognition of the fact
(28:21) that these treasuries are the go-to collateral for the whole financial system so if the entities using these treasuries as collateral Banks funds Financial uh institutions don't have Bitcoin exposure while this is going on and the US government sort of YOLO in it's like well we're going to let go of control of Treasury markets not control but we're going to let them price get priced appropriately as we go buy this Bitcoin like that could lead to some systemic fragility or it's probably already system ially fragile but it's
(29:01) already fragile yeah it's already fragile I if we go go back to this market right so one in five one and five uh 20 cents on the dollar is already printed money basically right so there's a floor on the price of treasuries and as we were saying if if 10% of the of the theoretical balance sheet revalued in Gold went into Bitcoin right so um that's 10% of 20% right so it's just another 2% so far to start uh that could be like Bitcoin Bitcoin on um actually that's not that's not the correct balance because this is the
(29:54) Federal Reserves uh forget that analogy but the um in any event the having Bitcoin as a as a back stop against uh further both monetary inflation that is increasing of the monetary base and then as a asset on the treasury side against further increases of the debt even if they say that they're going to decrease the debt and cut spending and all the rest it's only good it's certainly only good for the dollar um just you know it's just going to be a question of how you how you get there and I don't I don't know how how well uh
(30:44) this can be managed I mean it's been just a slow train wreck for 50 years and specifically after in the last 15 years since the global financial crisis 15 16 years this rip was also brought to you by our good friends at salt of the earth you got to be hydrating Freaks and while you're hydrating you got to be getting your electrolytes this is the best electrolytes mix that I've ever come into contact with uh Pink Himalayan salt with calcium magnesium potassium sodium no sugar it tastes incredible my favorite is the orange in the pink
(31:15) lemonade go to drink so.com that's drinks.com use the code tftc when you make your purchase and you'll get 15% off I'm telling you get on it freaks you're going to love this stuff yeah I think I think what we're getting at is they have to thread a needle and going back to Trump's Administration um his stated policy goals it seems like they're really trying to thread the needle so like a strong dollar you'd be okay with that um from the Executive Branch if you were reshoring manufacturing right the triffin Dilemma is a reason why we've
(31:56) been debasing the currency and fine with the relative purchasing power of the dollar falling as we flood International markets with dollars for their their cheap labor it seems like that is changing or Trump would like it to change um tiffin's dilemma is put us in a very precarious position in terms of um our ability to actually build stuff here and be somewhat robust from external factors um particularly those that we deem to be our our enemies so trying to reshore manufacturing and productivity to the United
(32:34) States probably want a strong dollar there so people operating within the local economy here have have better purchasing power as they're going out to to buy their goods and services um obviously talk of tariffs lower taxes um and Doge coming in to clean up um all the inefficiencies throughout the federal government those are and policy goals that that would point in the direction of where we'd be okay with a stronger dollar that sense am I wrong in saying that I mean theoretically you want a stronger dollar it's just uh if you get
(33:14) a stronger dollar uh it's probably because uh you're going to have more demand for it but then when you have a stronger dollar it's going to make as we know as you said talk about the triffin Dilemma it's going to make your exports more expensive and that's going to be harder on top of the fact if you're trying to build up the manufacturing base which is we're way behind on and need to um I not let alone I mean defense like uh the world is just completely REM militarizing right now completely different than anybody would
(33:50) have thought after the full scale Invasion with you know that Russia did and then obviously Trump wants to talk talk tough on China it's just some crazy stat I mean I don't even want to misquote it I mean it's something like 100 to one of if you talk about drones like what Chinese drone Parts can do compared to America like CH drone manufacturing and parts of drones it's just it's just insane I mean there are so many things that you'd have to re onshore and it's going to be painful when they do it and it would be even
(34:21) more painful when you have a strong dollar to do that so it's not going to be easy um people gotta be okay with you know higher prices they got be okay with paying a little bit more buying American Building American um it's like the complete opposite view that was going on from the 90s and it's also potentially going back to your interest rate discussion going to be more difficult if uh we're in a rising interest trade environment and in general we are in a rising interest trade environment right like one of the
(34:57) most absurd headlines I saw I don't know if you saw this but with all the Syria Mayhem they were comparing uh Syria to the fall of the Berlin wall and obviously I mean for I hope the people of Syria can stop fighting and have you know a great future they've been like decimated by the Russians uh for the last 10 years but um as we know there's a lot of factions there it's not exactly like everybody with a United View to move forward in the world with peace I hope they do but even the to to uh invoke the Berlin Wall right now in this time is
(35:40) like just completely different I mean when the Berlin Wall was falling like people were tired of totalitarianism they were tired of Communism interest rates were on their way down which is one thing I think a lot of people don't think about a lot right like interest rates we were going into summer right we were going out of winter we were going into spring uh as far as like the global cycle if you believe in that like the 60 or 80e cycle like we were going into a low interest rate environment High uh higher productivity high growth and of course
(36:10) the US exported a lot of that inflation even more to make it easier which was probably a mistake looking back in hindsight but now with all of that inflation uh that's out here right we we've seen for the past couple years uh both in Europe and the US like Western central banks have had to raise rates to not only the co inflation but before that right I mean it happened before CO as well they were trying to raise rates and going back to your discussion about the yield curve like that's going to make it very very difficult to do
(36:46) these types of things that we want to do if it's about like you know strong manufacturing bra base bring if things back on Shore yada yada yada I mean it's just like it's a headwind Upon a headwind right it's not it's not it's well easier said than done uh for sure you have to cut spending for sure you have to cut spending that's 100% I hope they can do it I hope they can do it that's I'm all for Doge and Elon and Vic and now looks like Thomas Massie coming in to cut spending but I think it's been frankly a bit of a
(37:23) lar because it the the whole we're going to come in and and cut Su spending conversation has completely neglected the fact that most suspending is defense and entitlements which are third rails set can never be touched yep I mean expense uh defense is going to increase more no question I mean with everything that's happening in Russia Iran um it's going to increase and like you said the third rails of entitlements it's just a massive massive component of that so yeah you're you're left with you know environment education
(38:05) couple things and you know we'll see see what they can do uh but it's you know I do see on the asset side Bitcoin can help alleviate some of this right H so and uh no again just just having a a solid asset that everyone wants and is unconfiscatable um that is absolutely a boon if you as a government hold that just like if you held gold it's going to protect your uh the purchasing power of your currency on the liability side which is how it looks like from a central bank perspective right when they print the money it's
(38:46) going to protect the value of that in the uh marketplace right uh not even talking about what percentage of it or what the backing needs to be and like we said before if if right now the Federal Reserves if it's 10% of the Federal Reserves balance sheet could be in Gold if you mark the market obviously that's a huge amount of Bitcoin so whatever the percentage is we'll see it's going to be very disruptive to markets and probably only good for Bitcoin holders uh so I like all those arguments but um yeah I mean it it it will be good it
(39:20) will be good for Bitcoin holders and it could be good for the massive debt here that you see on the screen as a September 35.4 trillion in federal debt um you know they they they just you're going to have to have something to offset that I've shown you the the actual treasuries balance sheet have I shown you that before yeah I believe so yeah so like we don't have to go through it but I mean the treasury's liabilities are even higher than this like this is just liquid Securities these are treasuries it's something like 45
(40:01) trillion is like total liabilities of the of the federal government most the assets are like land right yeah it's like some property some land some gold a little bit of gold as well on the treasury's balance sheet as we said so if you have Bitcoin there and as we know Bitcoin is scarce and will go up in value as people demand to hold it that's a great offset I mean that's something that will actually it will give more faith in the treasury in the marketplace uh than it might have now um you know one of the things I don't
(40:38) want to get into deep into it because I don't quite understand all the things he's doing he's doing crazy things but what Javier Malay is doing is he's trying to transfer a lot of the junk that is in the Argentinian Argentinian Central Bank to the treasury of Argentina and that doesn't sound good when say the junk but like you know making sure uh the treasury holds a lot of the Forex reserves gold all these things so it is on the The People's balance sheet and it balances the debt of the government I mean remember he
(41:14) said he wanted to close the central bank that would have been amazing right for us free market people but obviously once you're uh the mechanics of that I understand get pretty political and pretty hot pretty quickly um be quite difficult to do but but he's trying to do something like that basically is is what we're talking about right is just make you know he hasn't talked about Bitcoin so much but you know he's talked about dollarization and he's talked about holding foreign currency assets from the treasuries
(41:43) perspective so um it's the same thing with the United States it's just like on another level right instead of um just issuing all these treasuries and paying for these services that we seem seem to be on a very slippery slope to do at least have a hard asset that can uh give some confidence in holding that treasury that if something goes wrong well at least you have you have some Bitcoin that can back it up right of course they're never going to default as we know that they're never going to default it's always a self- default it's
(42:14) always print or borrow more to cover the shortfall and as we know this is now the tune of like trillions of dollars a year the deficit so uh but you know look I mean Trump trump uh Trump's got a big ego he's got smart people around him let's see let's see what they can do I I hope that they can sort sort something out here um well there's two things I want to talk about I'm trying to think of which one first but we we'll come back to Trump's administration because I think this is something that's not being talked about
(42:50) enough which is the fact that the FED has lowered rates by 75 bips from um the the high that they drove rates to um yep post post inflation breakout and the long end of the yield curve of us treasuries has not played ball we've seen the 10-year Spike up to about 4 and a half% since September when they started cutting rates and that that is again something I don't think people are talking about enough is because you would expect if the fed's going to lower rates that the the long end of yield curve rates would be to come down now
(43:28) but they have not been playing ball what what signal does that send to you just uh I'm just looking at it right now they had a big drop today like 40 bips oh really yeah I mean whatever it's intraday yeah it's still hard to tell but um yeah I mean the uh it's on the margin right it's on the margin uh let me look at the balance sheet really quick I I could pull this up here uh on chart for you guys but just quickly cuz I haven't looked at it in a bit but the balance sheet yeah it's like still in total still going
(44:05) down um so usually when you uh decrease the balance sheet right you're increasing the interest rate um it's still it's still like on a somewhat downward trajectory the total balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and it's just showing that on the margin uh that's enough for the market they can still drop rates uh a little bit and keep decreasing the debt I I don't know how much longer that's going to last uh they're talking about doing two more Cuts now um in the next two meetings so you know at some point it's going to seem like
(44:56) they're going to have to start start buying assets again which means buying treasuries which means uh pushing down those yields more uh but at the moment they they don't have to do that so I'm not really sure exactly what uh the market is saying but it's not reacting as normal as it does yeah that's right that's one of my biggest wor worries is that um you have all this hope change Maga coming into uh coming back into the White House and Red Wave here we've got the the house the Senate as well any would argue the Supreme Court
(45:46) and like are they just going to get Blitz cged by some wonky economic crisis that like that that that's what that that says to me the fact that rates aren't playing ball with the FED policy is that something's wrong in the background well I mean we have a a new asset that like I said is 2third now of the value of all Central Bank gold uh there could be a lot of things happening in the background that we don't quite understand um governments aren't so good at keeping secrets but I mean if uh this comes out that some big players
(46:29) are uh buying other harder assets as opposed to the typical treasuries I mean just who knows man it could be a it could be a major major event for Bitcoin I I don't know I mean I I certainly feel very good that we have Bitcoin and we have this escape hatch and you know don't have to worry about these things uh theoretically um but you know look I I think you you have a similar view of of mine like we have big players Alex sailor obviously just making huge huge moves in the Bitcoin market and in the Financial stock markets
(47:15) right but he's still talking the game of sort of the old Trad five world right just the dollar still going to be king dollar going to have Bitcoin it's an asset this and that uh that may happen but it also may be the case that uh you know due to people rushing toward the exits and that could be foreign investors as well that you do have some sort of a treasury crisis or a dollar crisis as Bitcoin is sort of rushed in as a new as a new Safe Haven uh I haven't I haven't seen any like signs of that I don't even know I
(47:57) mean other than obviously if we saw treasury markets go way more Haywire than what you're describing right uh not play ball in a big way like obviously just shoot up you know in a big way but um this this is why we're we're in Bitcoin right I mean this is why we're in Bitcoin we talk a lot about a lot of other things a lot of other politics surrounding money and debt and economics but at the end of the day um being able to have that escape hatch is very is very important and you know like I saw even I don't know if you saw
(48:41) this even Putin mentioned at a speech recently Bitcoin yeah can't control Bitcoin can't ban Bitcoin yeah and this is like you know for for listeners who don't know me or you know as I come back is probably one of the only in the small V diag of people that support Ukraine and also like Bitcoin I think it's like me and Peter Todd only but I saw Peter last week it was great to see him shout out to Peter shout out to Peter um there's a there there's a very small intersection there but uh everybody's got to know that I mean look the Ukraine
(49:20) war was a perfect example of like that I have nothing nothing but hatred towards Putin and what the Russian army is doing to the people of Ukraine and uh look and they are fighting heroically we had like Ukraine now is fighting North Koreans Putin's Army uh North Koreans are like you know raping their translators they're addicted to porn it's just it's a crazy thing and this is all happening in like it's like World War II style this is happening on the the front in Eastern Europe and ukrainians are fighting them
(49:57) with pretty much minimal help uh I've been very strong that we could have stopped we could have kicked them the [ __ ] out of Ukraine you know two years ago uh but we didn't do that they rattle the nuclear saber all the rest and what the ukrainians have done is they have basically allowed for another genocidal dictator Assad to be overthrown in Syria uh so they're doing like just a Herculean job okay but at the same time uh you know we're also in like a weird not a debt crisis but we're in a weird where you know everybody's counting their last
(50:36) s team their last scent everybody you know even though for America all you're doing is sending old kit if you're going to send stuff to Ukraine uh and it would be new jobs and new weapons for new stuff that's a very political issue to give more money in America uh Europe you know is doing more should do more but you you have this neutral asset that even this genocidal dictator like Putin knows uh it might help him preserve his own War chest better than the international Forex reserves like I said the German bonss guilts UK guilts uh US
(51:18) Treasury bonds that they have the Russian Central Bank has on their books that they foolishly left on their books before they invaded uh like that whole world is it's it's crumbling right now so they're like look I mean I I'm I sort of hate the fact that someone like Putin is championing Bitcoin but he's going to know more than anybody else I mean you can't do too much with gold they have all their gold I'm sure they're doing some things I've looked a little bit on their balance sheet uh you know they still have
(51:48) their uh the the Russian rule was not looking good right now the Russian econom is not looking good they don't have people to fight the war they got North Koreans coming in it's not good but you still have this genocidal dictator tting the benefits of Bitcoin and so I would say that's a lesson for the West in that look I mean the United States again we could have just forget NATO and it should be a NATO Coalition which what we had in in Kuwait in 1991 when Saddam invaded not talking about the second Iraq war the first one
(52:23) and you know it was done swiftly and the US acted with a coalition and restored International borders could have done that here in Ukraine but they chose not to nuclear saber R nuclear saber rattling all the rest uh happened here with uh the ukrainians are suffering but the us is going to have to understand that at some point like you're going to have to have some sound money to back up your War chest and and you know from that side uh there's a signal from other leaders I think that you know something like Bitcoin is going to be the one
(53:07) because Putin has a lot of gold and you know I don't know maybe the Chinese are Levering it somehow with him and seems like gold markets are moving a little bit more towards Asia but still no one wants to hold you on like do you want to hold you on do you want to hold rubles when you're trading and hedging in and out of gold uh I don't think so but he would much people would much rather hold uh Bitcoin if you're trading in and out of your own currency whatever it is and so that seems like a more logical next step
(53:36) in the sort of I don't know game of Risk that we're seeing on the world stage right now so well this gets back to Trump's Administration particularly uh Secretary of the Treasury Scott bent um and the the game of RIS that you just described because I think that if I'm reading the tea Leafs or trying to pull out a potential scenario of what's actually happening behind the scenes obviously the Strategic Reserve has been announced that the intent to acquire one at least and you want to reshore all your manufacturing and there's obviously been
(54:17) this big bricks Coalition building up over the years which is publicly singled a number of things one of which is that they want to acquire a bunch of gold and potentially launch a goldbat currency um used by the bricks Nations and one of the theories that's been floating around which I could see some um validity behind is the fact that the Trump Administration is identified this bricks Coalition in their intent to acquire a bunch of gold and back a currency with it as a Potential Threat to Dollar hegemony and the Dollar's
(54:55) status is reserve currency of the world and so they're deciding hey we recognize you're acquiring all this gold uh we're going to go after the Bitcoin this new asset which is better than gold um and try to sort of torpedo your your intent to go build this bricks currency back by gold um and and the bringing in of Scot perent uh specifically is very interesting considering his history working at Sora fund I believe he helped him with um the pound trade um very famously um made a lot of money on on a big Yen trade uh
(55:36) and has explicitly said particularly this year that um he would like and believes that there needs to be a brenon Woods 2.0 a monetary reset um and so game theoretically United States recognizing that the bricks country is going after this gold reserve and are going to try and replace a dollar with that saying huh we see that you're doing that we're going to go acquire a bunch of this other scarce asset and sort of torpedo your goals um in that direction but then as you mentioned that's that's I said this on rabbit ho recap a couple weeks ago in
(56:14) many other podcasts since then like I think Putin's overt recognition of Bitcoin is something that cannot be banned was a counter signal like Hey we're aware of Bitcoin too like we can play in this game sure sure sure I mean us cannot ignore it no matter what anybody tells you and obviously listeners and viewers of your show know it more than anybody else is you just you cannot ignore that so um as much as I despise someone like Putin uh he is exactly like you said sending a signal that you cannot ignore and you have to
(56:49) pay attention to and that's just no question that it's going to keep building up uh it would I mean we are at we're at 2third of the Central Bank gold Marty it's unbelievable right I mean we you know you just you don't even have to double in price from here and Bitcoin would be valued more than all of the gold that Russia has China has the us wherever it is all that gold put together in Gold vaults you only have to get to three trillion to get to that value so we're like the future is pretty much here I think as far as like as far as uh I'm
(57:30) concerned um how do you think it would portend to the next cycle do you think we're going to have a as much of a downd draw as we have had in the past Cycles you know we had like blowoff tops and then we usually have a big draw down s I'm insulted you obviously have not been listening to the show sorry for our listeners that have to have you don't have to repeat it then just say for the last show k no it's more Rabbit Hole recap but uh no I mean it's been a bit tongue and cheek but I've been putting the super cycle meme
(58:07) back out there suzu was was a cycle too early um I don't like if it all depends on how things materialize particularly here in the United States I think in the next year like if rumors behind the scenes here is that the Trump Administration is very adamant about following up on the promise of a bin strategic reserve and some people are confident that um whether it's an executive order or a bill making its way to the house and the Senate and two Trump's desk is in the realm of possibility of happening within the first 100
(58:46) days um and if that happens I mean it's funny because we've been talking about this for 16 years now is that the the game theory of Bitcoin the only winning move is to play mhm and we've I think bitcoiners have done an incredible job of choreographing exactly how this is going to play out it's going to start in this Niche dark corner of the internet um nerd funny money that that nobody really takes seriously and then eventually they'll reach a price where early adopters that are Tech forward and uh receptive to a new way of of
(59:24) operating a global monetary system adopting it um and and they begin acquiring Bitcoin and using it as their savings vehicle and benefiting from that through the years and then eventually businesses um are going to recognize that and ultimately States Federal governments nation states are going to come to the same conclusion um and you're going to have hyperbitcoinization um maybe hyperbitcoinization has been happening for the last 16 years uh um it's just not uh people just can't feel it as as much as we may moving
(1:00:04) forward so yeah like if I mean I think a lot I think it's contrarian my point of view in the space people are dead set on fouryear Cycles continuing will'll go up blow up top blow off top and 60 to 80% draw down I just I find it hard to believe that the Cycles are going to play out the way they have um throughout the first 16 years it's um so this is one of the ones I look at um we have this analysis where you look at the uh market cap divided by the trailing 12month Network revenue and it's still Bitcoin you know
(1:00:50) Bitcoin needs to be huge for this number to get huge and no one knows what this multiple should be but so trailing 12 months we're still only at about a $15 billion Bitcoin minor market so minor Revenue that's the fees plus the block reward and I just rolled this over the prior 12 months so you just have this this simple metric right it maxed out in 2022 at 16 billion all right then we went down into the bear back up again now to 14.
(1:01:21) 8 billion um it's an academic number obviously I mean people merge mine and they do all sorts of other things right so this is just the Bitcoin blockchain but uh if you put the market cap on that and then you do a multiple right and we're not you know as we know this cycle we're now over 2 trillion here you get what I call the price to sales ratio all right and uh for our listeners basically it's just a multiple it's how many times the minor Revenue on an annual basis goes into the market cap and if it's overextended it'll be
(1:02:01) quite high if it's you know if we're in a bear it'll be a quite low number so in the last cycle the peak was like 170 times the market cap was 170 times the revenue and now we're already up to 140 uh it's just uh you know it's just sort of an academic thing that I'm doing it's it's uh you know if we get up to the 98th percentile it could be 300 times if we stay on the same Trend right that we've been on basically but um yeah right now we're at about 120 128 times and um you know it's just it's it's still a volatile asset it's still
(1:02:42) gaining adoption it's hard to tell but uh using this sort of metric it kind of puts things in perspective still um like the gold market for example is still going to run at something like 100 billion a year okay so I just said the Bitcoin Market is like 16 billion in revenue revenue not not market cap oil markets are like a trillion dollar industry a year right so we're still so small when you look at those sort of Base comparisons um but it's it's getting up there it's getting up there so anyway this is another metric that I that I track you
(1:03:28) want to look at the power ratio yeah power power curve but before you describe it like what does your intuition say about the question of the bear the question of the bear and the Cycles yeah my intuition says that we will have more craziness I'm not sure if it's going to be in the same form as shitcoin blowups and people trying to Mega yield or whatever they do to uh to blow up the margins of the market uh but I do I I'm very sympathetic to what you are saying but I do think that uh it's possible that we overextend and we just kind of come down
(1:04:11) again you whether it's 80% draw down I'm not sure but that is the way the Bitcoin has been growing um yeah it's totally plausible that you have all these big entrance and they go completely Degen over lever themselves and blow up I mean it might happen in the trafi markets might happen in micro Strat it might happen uh it could happen in many different places now obviously with all the financial instruments that we have uh with Bitcoin not just on you know a few random wacko exchanges or madeup crypto projects um so yeah it can it can
(1:04:52) definitely there's no reason that it wouldn't or not necessarily a reason that it couldn't happen again this time so I do think we'll probably find some some Mania a year from now um well let's get to the power lines and see how high yeah yeah we could potentially go so zoom in a little bit here I put the multiples now on so you can get a little bit more understandable before I was describing things in terms of sigas this the same chart but I always told you that it was a it's based on percentiles which is not a bell
(1:05:37) curve sigmas are typically a bell curve but regardless uh you know I'm measuring how many how often the price is above or below this this power trend line right which is 90 96% R squar and we got above the one Sigma or uh 83r and a half% the blue line on the top here in 20 2021 2022 now as of just the last couple weeks right from mid November month we've gotten over the trend line so that was we were dogging it for a long time on Trend something happened to your mic can you hear me that's better so only now in the last month you
(1:06:22) know we got uh back above that trend line that black line uh you know cuz we were just dogging it for a long time little bit with the ETF approval boom in uh the start of the year but you know we were from 2022 June to you know toal two and a half years we've basically been below Trend so we're finally above it 100K looks like there's no stopping it bitcoin's in the news strategic Reserve what all whatever the rest you want to say we're we're finally above it so if you go back to those possible upside trend lines and
(1:07:00) let's say the end of next year uh again no Financial advice but the one Sigma up or the 83rd and a half percentile 270,000 and then if you get up to the 97th and a half percentile means 97% of the observations 97.5% of the observations are below the red line could be 800,000 and uh if you want to know what the multip what I'm basing those on it's just it's just a seeing the percent of time that the pricer is above or below this black line so to get to a 6.
(1:07:42) 4x multiple over the trend in December 2025 that would take you to $800,000 per Bitcoin and again you know people run different there are different people people that run different sorts of metrics I've just had this one always but we see that it happened in 2017 13 and 11 did not happen in 2021 but uh you know it's an interesting look any questions we've been looking at this for a while I know I find it hard to believe that we don't we don't top tick that that red line cuz that's the other let's talk about sailor too what could prevent prevent the price from running
(1:08:34) outrageously and prevent the super cycle like blowing up like what what are your thoughts on the convertible note strategy specifically I mean I think it's smart he uh he's got free money um basically given to him to buy Bitcoin and his you know liquidation values still are extremely low I haven't paid attention as much as uh perhaps you but I don't know what it's like it the price probably have to dip below like 20K for a long time right to default yeah 16k it would have to get to 16k yeah so I mean he's using the market to his
(1:09:18) advantage and as he should well that's that's another factor that factors into my Maybe this time is different and I know it's going to blow up in my face and we we'll likely have a blowoff top in a in a correction but when you think about the demand factors whether it's United States strategic Reserve I mean explicitly in the bill buy go go out to the market buy Bitcoin every day um and then hold it for 20 years so you're taking what the US government hopes to be around 5% of the overall Bitcoin Market off of the market over the next five
(1:09:58) years and holding it for 20 um you look at micro strategy the way they've structured their convertible notes very smartly making sure that they capture a full four-year cycle um so most of them are four to eighty year convertible notes I believe um so you're able to take that buy the Bitcoin and then not have to worry about the debt ultimately if it doesn't convert to equity till 4 to 8 years down the line um so sort of drisking that strategy and taking Bitcoin and likely holding it off the market for that period of time I mean
(1:10:37) we've got battery Finance in our portfolio they just did their first dually collateralized commercial real estate deal where they're refinancing um in this particular case a multi-use property in Philadelphia and um collateralizing the loan with the property and Bitcoin that was bought with the proceeds of the loan that's a 10year loan and I I think that's going to be a big Trend this cycle is Bitcoin beginning to fit into credit markets because all these credit investors are looking for better return and you're I saw that and you're you're
(1:11:12) pulling Bitcoin off the market and holding in these long duration credit products yep which just creates like a higher a higher floor I imagine or or sturdier base yeah I mean it's it's it's literally the exact same principle that we were talking about when we were talking about what the treasury could do right right I mean uh whether there's upside appreciation for Bond holders or not that's that's a whole different thing whole different question I guess but for treasury bond holders but yeah if you're talking about for private
(1:11:41) credit and you're talking about financing some what might be some sort of sketchier or kind of risky deal not sure where rents are going to go you're not sure where unemployment is going to go you're not sure where interest rates are going to go and you're able to secure that with a very sound asset that regardless the fund the investment vehicles need going to need to keep on their balance sheet and the loan that is drawn on that property you know a portion of that must go into Bitcoin uh I think it's a wonderful
(1:12:18) strategy and it's it's a PO you know it's it's a virtuous cycle right there's no there's no from the side of of uh there certain it certainly could be abused it certainly could C you know cause a blowoff top like during the next phase of the cycle or whatever and it certainly could harm people on the downside as well but the key is if you're treating it not as a sole investment but as sort of a diversification of your investment of your whatever whe whether you're a bond holder or even the investor like or you
(1:12:59) know real estate developer having another asset besides just the collateral of the property is only for the good right I mean you just created instant diversification with the most liquid asset in the world that is not otherwise doable right to do that with the gold with a gold bar is very difficult um you could do it with like a treasury market thing but why would you do that right typically so yeah you're just you're creating value and you're creating sort of a diversification in your collateral stack I think it's extremely important
(1:13:39) extremely important for the market uh so I think that's nothing but good in in general it's probably going to have some blowups probably have people that are too risky with it or don't have their Covenant strong enough or the underlying investment is not good enough and they get called out or they get C margin called because the price starts to tank and they didn't think about that you're certainly going to have that this is finance this is what this is what Leverage is all about um but as as you and I know and your listeners well know
(1:14:07) Marty like we are on the ascendancy here right I mean just look at this curve man imagine being Peter shiff and trying to bet against this he's been doing like slight he's been doing like slight About Faces a slight About Faces I've been enjoying it some of his debates it's so funny saying like he never thought gold would go to 100K like he never he never said explicitly that it couldn't happen which is absolutely false but he definitely said it many times in tweets but to say like you know I always hedge my bats and said it could happen
(1:14:40) but people are stupid this and that looking at his his squiring is just always it's it's quite funny now it's exhausting it's like all right Peter no I you have to you have have to take a view that he just uh this one we already talked about you want me to show you the uh this is the latest on the the monetary base so they're still printing by the way uh so uh other currencies are still falling in value relative to the dollar relatively we're still at this sort of relatively flat 27 trillion dollar worth of Base money
(1:15:28) which we have been since the last two and a half years okay so this is just the total monetary base this is the money supply it's analogous to bitcoin if you want to see more on that go to this page on my website p.p money uh but if we look at the weighted trailing 12-month changes we see that Fiat currency's like been nothing but getting more volatile right and then again just to show you this remember this is the black lines are a little bit different than measure measuring the change in the dollar right the black line is saying like they're
(1:16:09) printing a lot more but the dollar value that you see is still kind of flat you know what I mean so they they were really trying to cut down the deflation you know this Jackson whole speeches of uh 2022 2023 like everybody knew that they'd have to cut down this uh cut down the inflation that happened from covid right and they did and we saw svb um and all sorts of other banking failures some coerced as well uh silver grade signature right but um now they're printing again on net they they are printing even though if it looks flat this is one of
(1:16:49) these weird Illusions right it looks flat in dollar terms but if you measure the growth rates you isolate them each month you can still get to number that shows you uh uh a little bit better uh a native change they're they're printing again about 3% per year and we're still at this about 12.7% is the all-time figure and so again 12% 12.
(1:17:13) 7% per year growth rate for the monetary base since 1969 that's a doubling uh less than every six years so that's still the case even if they say they need elasticity in the money supply and they need flexibility in the money supply and they need to increase it or decrease it whatever it might be still at the end of the day mostly all they can do is is print and if you compare 12.
(1:17:41) 7% to like population growth less than 2% if you to compared it to GDP growth worldwide it's like whatever 3 4% maybe 5% I'm not sure actually exactly worldwide GDP but United States certainly isn't that high uh money prints faster so that's what you guys got to think about and again this is why why we do Bitcoin right uh here's another interesting chart really quick I'll show you Marty um actually saw this Natalie Brunell did a tweet she wanted someone to sort of graph it out I'm not sure if she used it or not I I tweeted it at her but uh let's just take
(1:18:20) off like if you use just Federal this is United States right Federal Reserve data and if you just look at a few different things and look at how they grew since the 70s it's pretty wild so um like media and family income real wages they haven't even grown since the 70s most people you might have heard that right like inflation generally is is uh faster than real wages so median family income is since 1969 is 10x higher median sales price and some commenters on my YouTube Channel said that you can probably this
(1:18:56) should probably even be less because houses are bigger now and uh they were smaller in the 70s so actually this probably should be even less High than it is but 17x is the median sales price uh of homes compared to what it was in 1969 the S&P now way higher 60 times so this is this in itself tells you something about where asset where where inflation goes does it go into your income or does it go into assets that tells you something 60 times uh the monetary base 80 times 90 times so this is the printing press
(1:19:42) right this United States monetary base printing press we talked about it at the beginning of the show also uh the update that I do and then if you look at CPI it's the tomato red line here I'm going to put it on where do you think is going to fall below below all of them yeah yes sir it's another reason this is like the only this maybe the first this is maybe the first time I've put CPI on a chart Marty and uh it's it's fitting I never use it I never recommend using it don't think about it for your family or anything the CPI index is only eight
(1:20:21) times they say that it only costs $8 now in 20204 $85 do compared to $1 in 1969 that's what they say that's what the Federal Reserve says this is even includes the food and energy item this is for all Urban this is Criminal is that unbelievable it is Criminal this chart is insane everybody listening on the podcast like you should know by now if you're new to the show um Matthew and I meet quarterly to do the monetary base update and he comes packed with charts and so this these episodes are best viewed um on YouTube or Spotify
(1:21:01) if you if you have Spotify yep it's uh it's criminal they're lit like how how could they honestly say that the CPI has any validity or any reasonable um predictive power or not even predictive power that it's representative or descriptive of what's actually happening yeah in the economy this is% 100% this is why you need to own assets if you want to keep up in life and uh even house prices uh are not even close to stocks or the actual printing of money um and you can go let's go before the GFC I I thought there was something
(1:21:46) interesting here if I can remember so it's interesting even the monetary base is still growing faster than CPI but stocks actually uh did keep up with it and you see here was the NASDAQ boom and then getting on into the 2008 Boom the GFC uh an argument to be made here like I I this was also when I started get in the stock market like right around 2000 2001 um 2002 and right after the NASDAQ boom and I just remember like okay this is what I need to think about in life is diversification and socks and everything
(1:22:20) else and it was already at that time that the monetary base the printing press was like basically going to overtake it it was it was it was it was already more money printing fashion in the growth of the stock market and uh and then that just exploded from the global financial crisis I mean it's just it's not even a it's not even a competition anymore uh the monetary base is 88 times higher than it was in 1969 compared to the stock market which is 65 Times Higher do you think we have another big print around the
(1:22:57) corner uh that's what they're saying they're saying two more rate cuts um so again I like we talked about earlier I it's very interesting that they have had this rate cut and and uh this this easing right and the there they've still been able to decrease the balance sheet usually it works the opposite um again everything's on the margin you just have to see and um you know it's not it's not it's not uh it's not so normal right and again never Financial advice right but we're we're bitcoiners and uh I'm just glad
(1:23:39) that we have an asset that's sort of like a an escape hatch and if you if you're in the United States just listening to this in the midwest or whatever like and you're in the real estate business sure I mean there's always going to be a place for that but if you're over here in Eastern Europe if you're if you might need to literally run without doing anything and pack up because the Russians are invading uh Bitcoin is absolutely the best thing to hold and I never thought I would actually be saying that Marty in
(1:24:07) my own sort of neighborhood but this is the kind of stuff that we're thinking about and uh it's like I'm very glad that I'm holding Bitcoin because you might actually in certain situations you might actually have to back up and and move and you know just so happens that that's a better asset anyway in the United States even if you do have strong markets and strong defense and a stable well relatively stable currency uh bitcoin's still outperforming as we know so uh yeah don't listen to Peter Schiff Sound Advice well let's get let's
(1:24:47) I really want to dig into Scott bent like can you illuminate the freaks of about the Soros pound trade and your thoughts on what a Breton Woods 2.0 monetary reset would look like if they actually tried to go execute on that yeah I mean I I don't have uh any sort of inside information on how he uh was working with Soros there and was uh Jim Rogers involved with them as well I I think so yeah he was time I believe so um but yeah obviously they broke the bank of England which was pretty Wild betting against the pound but
(1:25:38) uh look it goes back at the end of the day if you're going to have uh at the end of the day governments have always pegged their currency to a Sounder it's only in the last 55 years uh that they have not okay do I have the gold chart still on here I do I actually have here so if you're still watching Dear viewer like they don't have such great data here but if you go back to like the 1800s they got the pound sterling got the French Frank at various times for whatever the currency that they printed if you looked
(1:26:22) at so that's a liability on their balance sheet if you look at the asset side of the balance sheet you would have something like gold and it is not actually contrary to what some people might tell you it's not always 100% uh it's usually a smaller percentage right so 20 10 15 it stayed here something like 13 14% with the pound sterling for a long time that went up after World War II uh they tried to revalue after spending a lot and that caused the pound to decrease in value and all sorts of other stuff but anyway it does constrain
(1:26:56) governments they always go off of it during war um I don't want to let's not Logan you don't need to show this chart it's just too much while we're talking about it but the point is um look governments it's it's very simple right I mean everybody talks about the backing of a currency um it's never been the case that there's ever been a 100% gold-backed dollar or gold backed currency usually it's a smaller percentage uh in times of War it could be that gold flows into a safer place for example the United States
(1:27:35) United States went over 100% actually if you looked at the gold and its vaults over the currency that they had printed and you marked it to Market even during World War II okay um but gold is and by the way before so so the reason Bretton Wood started was um which was this conference right after World War II or as World War II was ending across the world it was in 1944 World War II of course ENT 1945 uh depending on where you were in the world but um the Bretton Woods conference uh recognized the fact and there was all
(1:28:13) these great economists like Milton Friedman and Hayek and me's were there and John morer KES was there they all recognized that because of the madness that happened in Europe uh all the gold like 80% of the world's gold we talked about you know Bitcoin is now two thirds of the world's monetary gold that is Central Bank gold 80% of that gold was in the United States um after World War II so you had the situation where you had a democratic safe country that just destroyed everybody else was the dominant hedgemon
(1:28:52) except for of course the Soviet Union which is this piece of [ __ ] entity that occupied Eastern Europe for 50 years but anyway they tried to be Communists they tried to do their thing uh you still had this dominant entity that was the United States that had uh most of the world's gold in its coffers was relatively safe Democratic protected by two oceans so people just said well let's just leave the gold in the United States and let's start trading around dollars and that was basically the start of the brenon
(1:29:19) woods system so again but but you still have to keep it you the thing with these monetary systems is you still have to keep a peg you have to keep the government honest so the government will say you know what even if people don't know the backing and I I've it's so funny I've come across this like even with Swiss you know I talked to Swiss who Switzerland has always been recognized as sort of like currency that holds a lot of value um they're saying like it's for every Swiss frank that's printed that's always you know an ounce
(1:29:50) of gold that's behind it and like that's definitely not the case like as I show you here you can see that it is very good uh even in 2010 it was 50% backing but it was not 100 okay and now it's even like well lower it's like below 10% um but in any event it's just a side note everybody people like might tell you that it needs to be 100% definitely doesn't need to be 100% and first of all governments would never want it to be that way because there's literally no flexibility for them to do anything else which again I'm not saying it's good
(1:30:22) that they have it but they're just no government is ever going to uh go on to 100% gold standard 100% Bitcoin standard um so that's the thing that's the thing basically is we're talking now about going on to something that would be a New Breton Woods it's basically saying well we know that there's 21 million Bitcoin around the world are we going to have like you said Marty uh 5% of the Bitcoin inside of the United States or 10 or whatever I mean obviously 10 would be a huge number but the challenge as we talked about at the beginning of the
(1:30:54) show the challenge for governments who have simply waited too long in this very brief monetization of new base money which is Bitcoin over the last 15 years the challenge is buying it without absolutely exploding the markets and uh you know your guess is as good as mine Marty now that's going to work because I I just like again even if it has to do with this gold revaluation scheme in the Central Bank of the United States one way or another you're going to you're going to explode the price if it's announced that you know the central
(1:31:28) bank is buying Bitcoin so uh what are your thoughts yeah it's it's again you have to thread the needle and it's hard but as you're describing like Bretton Woods the what happened after 80% of the gold in the US everybody got together said all right we're going to base it off this use the dollar um and anchor that to Gold fractionally um and fix a the Global Currency system it's hilarious is ultimately the problem that led to a purely un untethered Fiat monetary system that we've existed under for the last 55 years was the fact that France
(1:32:08) um came to the US in the late 60s early 70s and said hey uh the world's pretty safe now we'd like to take our gold in kind and put it in our own bolts in the US was like uh we may not have it and so you had this [ __ ] you obviously [ __ ] over the course of 25 years um where you the whole world coal list on the United States said hey you guys are democratic you've got secure borders you're pretty stable economy and political system we trust you and that trust was completely obliterated in in relatively short order
(1:32:43) I mean 25 years is is not a long time um and uh yeah and the French the French always they always screw us man they just don't care uh it's it's it's good it's good it's a good thing I'm saying they uh the French are always keeping the Americans honest and uh that was like literally one of the last thing that charl deal the former uh the president of France at the time before he died was he started to call the gold back and uh it was basically that you know that was one of a couple other reasons right we had Vietnam was raging
(1:33:14) in the United States and that percentage as I told you that is printed money versus the national debt that was really stretching at that time as well it was going up to 15% at the time which was huge like when the Federal Reserve started it was Zero literally there was Zero Federal Reserve notes and Federal Reserve Bank Reserves as a proportion of the national debt Federal Reserve was mostly like a banking entity they were lending to Banks so on and so again I'm not defending the fed I'm not saying just talking about the history a
(1:33:42) little bit here uh now the Federal Reserve is 20% of the national debt 20% of all treasuries outstanding are owned that is printed by the Federal Reserve that means printed to buy them which again is an artificial floor on the treasury which is not good cuz it distorts markets anyway things were being stretched like that during the 70s right so things were being stretched you had 15% the Federal Reserve was owning of treasuries the G was like enough of this let's uh get some gold back and that's when Nick Nixon temporarily
(1:34:14) temporarily closed the gold Redemption window in August of 1971 and and here we are today so the long and short yeah I mean as far as the history goes this the first time like this 55e period is the first time that we have been like as a world like from recorded history like there's been no sound money officially backing yes like I said there still is $3 trillion worth it's about 1.
(1:34:40) 2 billion ounces if you want to do the math it's $3 trillion worth of gold in central banks today and that's not all the bullion by the way there's even more in private uh vaults if we go here so the bullion itself is about 7 trillion this another thing with gold bugs like that it's like gold is also in like jewelry it's all over so you never know uh where gold could fall but I try to break it down in these buckets for you you can see alltime gold mind then gold that's uh not in Industry right which is a smaller per percentage than in silver silver is
(1:35:18) like 50% in Industry then like the gold that's in jewelry gold that's you can huddle in bullion form they're about 50/50 it's a little bit less in bullion then a subset of that is Central Bank Golds it's right here so that's the next one on the list for Bitcoin so look again I I I I think it's inevitable it's 100% normal that governments are talking about it I think it's interesting it's a little bit wild that it's the Trump Administration that might be the one to do it I mean why not right I mean it's uh if there's going to be an
(1:35:46) Administration to do this why not have it be the Trump Administration makes sense um I just hope I hope they put it in the treasury uh I really do because if it if they keep it if somehow he strong arms the Federal Reserve to just print and buy uh that's not going to be a good sign I mean I think signs are pointing towards it'll be in the treasury but going back to brettonwoods 2.
(1:36:15) 0 and comparing it to what happened in 1944 um in the aftermath I think we're both in agreement that they is not clear to us how you actually execute this um in a somewhat uh smooth manner a smooth transition to a new monetary system however let's just run with the assumption that you figure it out and will price in some volatility and chaos and Market blowups as we transition to a new monetary system comparing it to Brenton Woods 1.
(1:36:47) 0 um with the us being The Trusted third party to to custody the world's gold um and then if somehow successfully if Scott pen is is um is truly trying to manufacture and bring forth the brentwoods 2.0 monetary reset um type agreement and Bitcoin is at the core of that like that would be massively beneficial compared to Brett Woods 1.
(1:37:16) 0 because instead of this trusted third party in the US where you're just saying all right we're going to put all the goal in the US we trust that the US isn't going to spend it they're going to keep it in the vaults and when we get to call it we'll be able to get it in a timely manner turned out not to be the case um you have Bitcoin as this strategic Reserve asset um for the global monetary system and everybody can validate and verify themselves because it's this open source protocol this this transparent Ledger and this is where the white pill
(1:37:47) comes in it's like again who knows how that transition happens if it materializes um in this Administration or even In Our Lifetime but if you were to put forth the case of why it should happen it's like all right let's take the the harsh medicine now stomach the volatility and the the market chaos that is likely to ensue from this type of tectonic shift and how the global monetary system works and is viewed but on the other side of that if Bitcoin is at the core you have a much Sounder base because France doesn't have to trust
(1:38:23) that us has the gold they can put the Bitcoin in particular wallets and be able to verify that they're they're there yeah and I don't think we're at the place yet although again it's ironic that we're at 2third of the gold value in market cap right now um that's in central banks that is as I said many times the three trillion that's in central banks uh since gold has been so demonetized and so degraded over the last 50 years 55 years that's not enough to change the whole monetary system right so again this comes back to the
(1:39:04) question of the pegging that I mentioned earlier um if you really wanted to hold government's feet to the fire right like you establish a Peg and you hold them to the peg again it's something they always break anyway during Wars so it's like kind of a it's kind of like a it's just kind of a dumb game right for those of us that follow enough it's like why would we even bother about what the government does with their currency when we can just hold the Bitcoin outright so you and I Marty are you know and I'm sure most of your listeners are
(1:39:33) like we're purists in that way we just you know I don't have to worry even though it is open source and it's great and I'm glad that it's much better than the French have having to worry about where their gold is or the US unnecessary Wars of Vietnam which I think again is great uh just the asset value itself is so uh uh liquid and so pristine that you're going to have to hold it no matter who you are I think that's fine I think that's great um but I don't see at least at the moment I don't you tell me if you're if you're
(1:40:05) hearing things differently but I don't see at the moment how you would convert the dollar as far as like you know some convertibility or a peg or something like that uh that would seem maybe too rigid at the moment certainly too rigid for someone like Trump too rigid I don't think the market the market cap needs to be orders of magnitude harder to try to Peg it and we have I believe Bitcoin will be able1 trillion dollar asset um I I agree I think that uh that is and that's probably where we're going frankly because again um you look at the
(1:40:45) three trillion like I said couple years ago a decade ago like you're at 1 to two trillion gold has gone up in dollar terms bitcoin's gone up in dollar terms it's going to be the same as long as we have this currency that everybody has to use you have to pay your taxes in it they're going to devalue it yeah they can try to do good things on the edges and Doge and all the rest but they're still going to devalue it um so again your your your escape hatch just remains Bitcoin it's uh all roads lead back to bitcoin um I
(1:41:17) can show you one thing here regarding uh go ahead and keep talking if you want while I find it but it's similar ux upgrade for your site you need a search bar so that you can just yeah this is all local stuff it's just uh don't show the slogan it's too uh too much Alpha making making demands now no you can I mean it's it's fine I just can't uh it I do need a search bar you're right it is perplexing um just trying to Grapple with everything and it it's it's literally unchartered Uncharted Territory like y an asset like Bitcoin has never existed
(1:42:00) we could sit here and um try to predict what's going to happen but I think that's one thing if you've been in Bitcoin a while uh you get to your Bitcoin and States like you don't know what's going to happen like you said the thought of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve being seriously considered the United States and the year of Our Lord 2024 would have been objectively insane 18 months ago and yet here we are here we are yeah so here's here's what I wanted to show you is uh so this is again I like to just draw trend lines longtime viewers listeners
(1:42:36) of your show probably know that and just measure the growth rate of those trend lines right forget what CPI says just look at corporeal things real things like the money supply and measure now here's monetary base this is what you won't find anywhere else in the world they kind of like there's no apis for this stuff you got to manually go and calculate it uh we are actually at the lower end of the band right closer to the 2 and a half percentile than we were during Co which we were at the top end of the band but look at that R squar 99%
(1:43:04) r squared okay now as I said uh this is like Witkin Stein's ruler I always have to remind so like there's 50 different currencies behind here this is a very simple I'm not saying this is scientific but it's because like back here in the 60s and the 70s I don't have all the 50 currencies that I'm using here now so uh the growth rate the the slope of this curve is not exactly 12.
(1:43:28) 7% which is my scientific calculation that's my headline monetary inflation number is 12.7% it's actually a little bit lower which is surprising you would think it would be higher because there's less data in the bottom in the back and there's more data in the top you follow me so I'm adding more currencies but actually with going back to this wikin scenes ruler thing they sort of lose value against the dollar it's actually a little bit less it's like a little bit less than 11% even regardless you can you can schedule it out you can run a
(1:43:53) trend line it's exponential the the monetary world the the the finance world because of compound growth it grows exponentially right so we put on log scale right here's it off log scale here's log scale becomes a straight line and we can project out and though we're at 27 trillion now and again as we said gold used to be like one to two trillion in dollar value even just like a decade ago we project this out now uh even only to the end of I think it was like two Habs from now or something around that why I put this I
(1:44:25) can't even remember why I put this December 2023 if you that regression look at the black line the middle black line what it says in the tool tip $83 trillion in 9 years or so from now8 n years so after the next two [Music] and again I don't know if this is going to be orderly I don't know if this is just how it's going to if it's going to you know just continue to inflate on this roughly 11 to 12% per year growth curve that I'm finding here but uh we might indeed be to this mythical 100 trillion doll uh valuation of Bitcoin by the time that
(1:45:16) Bitcoin sort of absorbs the rest of Fiat money and it's just so huge that people realize well Fiat money needs to be tied to coin in a stronger way than just uh you know than it is now at least if the state wants to still be around and collect taxes and uh you know pay services maybe things become more decentralized you know like sovereign individual style it's hard to tell but I'm not holding my breath for that because right now where we are in Eastern Europe things are [ __ ] crazy and you got mad dictators
(1:45:44) running around trying to genocide ukrainians so um you know but that mad dictator is saying he recognizes the value of Bitcoin I just I just spit a lot out out of you there Marty so yeah well it's weird too cuz you had this I think one of the variables that hasn't been like is the big print going to come like from the need toly subsidize people's wages because is this AI Trend real is it actually going to bring massive productivity I've talked to a number of people we've seen it within our portfolio at least on the software
(1:46:30) development side like it is pretty clear that AI has reduced the need to expand your headcount um at the company level because very good Engineers can operate as if they're they're 10 engineer so it's like a 10 to1 productivity Improvement 10x productivity Improvement and um obviously there's a massive amount of debt but you also have these deflationary pressures that are entering the market um at at a very interesting time and again you mentioned mentioned it early 80-year cycle is obviously the fourth turning it's a popular book in the
(1:47:08) Bitcoin space sovereign individual and both of those books predicted or describe that we're living through this inflection point and uh things are going to get weird you have you have insane deflation in the Digital World um that driving insane productivity um like companies that used to take 10 to 15 um member engineer teams to to build a a scalable product now arguably many people would say need three to five um what effect does that have and actually was reading a thread um earlier today too is that you have this problem
(1:47:53) where these efficiencies are being recognized at the company level and during covid when we print a bunch of money a lot of these big Tech firms hired people at the managerial level director level and it's becoming abundantly clear that they are not necessary and a lot of them are getting fired they're going out to the job market um they've they've built up this insane lifestyle um which dictates that they need to make a lot of money um to to keep it up and um they're going they're being recognized as somewhat
(1:48:26) useless within their companies then going out to the job market trying to find another job and and hitting a brick wall um yeah yeah there's a lot of crosscurrents there it goes back to as well the how's that going of jive with the onshore and stuff manufacturing retooling that needs to happen anyway and just getting massively outcompeted by China and just something as simple as the Drone market so uh you know that's going to play into it um the cycle thing is is just one comment on that cycle thing is interesting it's it's uh there's a small
(1:49:04) rub at least if you look at the World War I and World War II they don't really fit there you have to pick one wherever you want to you want to match with the cycle but you know if if if you are on this sort of 80-year winter spring uh summer fall cycle right World War II I think it is doesn't really fit on that cycle at all but so I'm not I'm not at all married to that idea but what I would say you know looking at something like this and we looked at variation of these charts over the year Marty over the years but uh let me put the tool tip
(1:49:44) back so this is when I started to do the monetary base sort of research that I do and you see there in the tool tip it was a little over 20 almost $21 trillion equivalent monetary base okay now we're 27 we got up to 30 trillion with co uh and we're below Trend even now with this sort of you know just massive deleveraging that they've been forced to do from the from the massive Co inflation so we're below the trend that is 33 33 trillion is the trend so if you just kind of back out and look at it this way again it's not perfect Cycles
(1:50:26) or whatever I'm just starting it from this end of the Breton Woods period that we've talked about when the dollar started to freely float in the or excuse me gold started to freely float in the market dollar as well um you see it sort of takes away the noise right you going have long like you know here 95 like you have just sort of long lows where it's a little bit lower than you know know a lot of hot money printing after the global financial crisis it's on the top end of the curve but I think it's a good it's a good just
(1:51:00) quick quick and dirty look at uh sort of whatever we talk about week in and week out on the podcast and I do the same like I'm doing you know these videos just trying to look at one's part of the market or look at the rubble Market or look at what gold is doing right now versus some other asset class uh one thing we know for sure is that in the last 55 years they've just continued print worldwide as a sort of Central Banking polity and it is pretty wild that you know here we are 100K and uh and and and Rising very quickly from
(1:51:36) there so uh nobody nobody really can make the excuse now that like it's just sort of a m except for Peter shiff of course that this is some mystery asset that doesn't work and no one understands how the collateral value like the utility that actually has in the marketplace um nobody can make that excuse anymore so yeah and going back to like Cycles the Bitcoin price cycles that we were talking about earlier mhm like uh like the Kami just made like I think it's becoming abundantly clear to everybody like right this thing is not
(1:52:10) dying maybe I was ly effect right like Lindy's kicking in obviously we've talked about the not us specifically but it's been talked about in the industry like it's tracking this internet adoption um cycle that happened in in broadband internet hit right hit the uh hit the tape in the 990s and that was an s-curve adoption and when it comes to like bitcoin price Cycles like could be wrong but it it just feels like I don't know I just have this intuition that we are approaching we had the original monetization and the L I would argue
(1:52:48) between 2013 and um 20 uh 22 and now 16 years in Bitcoin hasn't died we've had four of these Cycles it is becoming abundantly clear like and and then you had just have the the social psychological aspect of it stamp approval from Black Rock and the Institutional Investor class and now looks like stamp of approval from the US government like we could be at the beginning of the the exponential part of S curve adoption um yeah well that's a that's a whole another interesting um theory if that actually happen so I I
(1:53:28) was one of the first people and I guess not the first person but one of the first people even before Plan B did his his s2f model uh I had posted that Bitcoin follows a power curve somewhere here I think it was the end of 2018 right the end so it's right here Bitcoin was at 3500 and the curve itself it was below the curve right it just yeah we just had this puke from zoom in from the after the 2017 top and we puked out like down below 3,000 right and that that's like right here is when I when I posted the curve for the first
(1:54:10) time and it was it was just it was very close to what it is now if you go to my website and you go to instead of toptop money but slthe chart por pores. itheart you'll see this chart as well so you can play around with it and use the slider it's not as detailed as this just because of bandwidth and stuff it's uh you know for data purposes but um it's a very close it's it's a very close thing and basically from 2016 2017 this curve has not moved much okay so it it does I can't show you because this I don't have
(1:54:51) the software good enough if I showed this on log log so if I made the if I uh compressed the right side of the x-axis and uh expanded the left side of the x-axis you would actually see this turn into a straight line so unlike exponential curves right which we just showed here which are straight lines on log linear a power curve exhibits a straight line on log log and unfortunately with this my current setup with this uh uh with the software I can't really give you a log log I just can't I can't convert it right now but
(1:55:28) if I did you would see this line turn into a straight line I do have that on my website by the way actually I can show it on my website uh let's go here it's only in monthly but here's the it's it's kind of janked up it's it's you know it's not great but this is this is log log and you can roll your you know my goal is to make it easier for you dear listener feel free to donate if you want but uh you can roll your your mouse over this and see the different values but this is the same chart it's just on log log so if we expand the left
(1:56:05) side of the x-axis and compress the right side right it it will show into a straight line that's what a power curve does this looks like a pretty [ __ ] powerful Trend uh this is what what power curves exhibit basically which is different than exponential is they exhibit proportional growth okay so it's something it's called scale invariance it's proportional growth so when Bitcoin was really small it was growing a little bit faster right than it grows now but it's bigger now so it grows a little bit slower that's why you get this sort of
(1:56:39) decaying if you look at it on log linear it looks like kind of a decaying line it's not that slowly excuse me it's not that quickly decaying might look worse to you if you want to get to million dollar Bitcoin tomorrow whatever but look I mean we take this out to on this chart we take it to 2033 remember that number by the way from when I showed you the monetary base chart we can get to million dollar Bitcoin in 2033 so after the next two the best Bitcoin data group on Twitter you can find a lot of physicists and
(1:57:27) scientists I've kind of teamed up with to do this stuff uh I mean that everybody just does it independently but we like each other's work and stuff so I would encourage you to read some of that stuff I mean it's what what what it shows is it's a different it's a different relationship than most of the financial markets most of the financial markets exhibit this which is a straight line on log linear which is exponential growth which is constant growth so unlike proportional growth which I said before it's constant growth so constant growth
(1:57:58) is just straight up you get to a percent a compound annual growth rate a year and what what is that with base money it's like 11 12% constantly every year 11% this is a it's it's 12.7 is the it's my it's my number that I've derived but every year 12.7% 12.7% the Curve will grow 12.
(1:58:21) 7% okay with Bitcoin at least according to the statistical sort of analysis it's pretty 96 r s is damn it's damn strong and so far it has just exhibited that uh could it you know so what you suggested Marty is something that um a power curve does not do actually it just Moves In what this like straight line on a log log curve it just moves here but it's still a fast like right now if you looked at the slope of this curve of this power curve is 45% per year 45% per year it's massive that's a huge number I mean we just talked about treasuries
(1:59:00) right like forget of which way of the Direction Up Up and Down of the yield carve it's 4% 4% a year and that's stressing the markets right 4% is stressing the markets Bitcoin is growing at 45% per year and you'd have to go out like another I don't know 30 40 50 years or something to get something that would get down to the S&P 500 level so it's a massive even though it doesn't look like a massive growth rate with this little log linear chart that most people look at it actually is I mean it's just it's it's huge um so I'm I'm still you know I
(1:59:39) don't I don't like write about it a lot like I talk about it on my channel and stuff but I'm I'm pretty I've been talking about this power this power regression stuff since even before Plan B was doing his his little stock to flow analysis which is which is more it's more has a relationship to an exponential curve but I I I I don't think that Bitcoin exhibits that relationship but we're we're all going to see how it works out in the next like I said two havingsex two happs for sure yeah all right man my daughter's calling
(2:00:20) me all right I'm yeah not [ __ ] my brain in a pretzel this is always fun I hope uh it more or less made sense I was it's we we we like to jump to different topics which I always enjoy with you Marty but uh I hope I hope it was clear enough yeah I think you're good um next time we'll talk we'll be above 150,000 Bitcoin will be larger than all the gold held by central banks and who's next on the uh the Fiat based money list to Japan Japan Japan uh uh next up is Japan I should put the Target price for Bitcoin I don't have that on this chart
(2:00:58) but you can see it here por gas. uh top money Japan is at 4.39 trillion so a double a double basically with take us there and that's the those are the majors man we passed all the mid- majors the only four currencies left are the Yen the Euro the Yan and the dollar and then gold of of course as we talked about all available gold in the world non-industrial gold that's about $16 trillion easily attainable humble 16x from here or 8X 8X yeah easily attainable easily attainable yeah all right you go attain some quality time
(2:01:41) with your daughter you enjoy your Christmas Merry Christmas my friend uh congratulations on everything and just being a strong bitcoiner and a a good friend and I wish you all the best and your family this Christmas season well Merry Christmas to you too and the feeling is mutual thank you for being who you are and coming back and doing this we'll we'll catch up in the beginning of next year look forward to it all right peace and love freaks
