Matt Pines examines how UAPs, AI, and Bitcoin are converging into a pivotal moment that may test humanity’s technological and spiritual readiness.
In this expansive conversation, Matt Pines explores the convergence of UAPs, AI, and Bitcoin as accelerating forces reshaping our civilization by 2030. He highlights a new era of “as-if” disclosure, where governments subtly acknowledge UAPs without full transparency, leveraging ambiguity for strategic advantage. As part of Skywatcher, Pines supports scientific efforts to study UAPs via electromechanical signals and meditative consciousness states, proposing a possible link between mind and matter. He also draws philosophical parallels between consciousness and physics, suggesting both are fundamental to reality. Pines connects the cultural dynamics of Bitcoin, AI, and UAPs—each with its own mythology and inflection point—arguing they reflect humanity’s collective shift toward a higher plane of awareness. Ultimately, he suggests that successfully navigating these frontiers could determine our entry into a “cosmic club,” with Bitcoin and AI serving as proofs of our technological and moral readiness.
This episode offers a sweeping exploration of the converging forces shaping our future—UAPs, AI, and Bitcoin—framing them not just as technological revolutions but as catalysts for a deeper philosophical and spiritual awakening. Matt Pines argues that humanity stands at a civilizational crossroads, where our tools and technologies will only serve us if we evolve the wisdom to use them. Ultimately, the question isn’t just what we create, but who we must become to steward this transformation.
0:00 - Intro
0:33 - US disclosure posture
9:06 - Skywatcher
17:10 - Fold & Bitkey
18:46 - How the data is collected
23:35 - Unchained
24:03 - What attracts UAPs
35:40 - Consciousness
54:27 - Govt psychics
57:54 - Geopolitical implications & triple hockey stick
1:10:41 - AI
1:17:41 - Will Trump build China Lite?
1:30:32 - Exopolitics
1:37:09 - Is bitcoin the great filter?
1:42:45 - Matt’s having fun
1:48:45 - Quantum breakthrough implications
2:09:59 - Bitcoin Policy Summit
(00:00) are there anomalous objects in the sky you can rely on the government to declassify information but the sky isn't classified with the right people the right skills you can just go out and actually demonstrate that this is a real phenomenon if there are anomalous objects out there of non-human origin well that is a highly valuable hint at new physics and if it turns out that there's a deep connection between human consciousness and those objects well that also is highly suggestive direction uh to explore to understand the nature
(00:24) of consciousness so these are the two most fun questions about reality that humans have at the moment so the government's admitting that we have the ability to manipulate space and time and sky watchers out there trying to summon UAPs what What the hell is going on you just fell to the wrong timeline my friend or the right one depending on your perspective was that admission by the Trump administration this week part of disclosure light disclosure what are we what are we classifying that as i mean my thesis for some time has been
(01:04) the government will adopt an attitude I think more out of necessity and constraint of what I would call as if disclosure meaning they will increasingly be acting as if this subject is true without ever really or at least not immediately you know confirming or affirming it's true so you have episodes like that speech which uh you know Katzios is the head of office of science and technology policy he was formerly basically the head of the all advanced research inside the defense department including DARPA um as
(01:45) well as other you know our most highly classified highly sensitive research projects in the Pentagon um you know there's metaphorical interpretation uh of that language some folks thought it was alluding to technologies that close the gap for human civilization across space and time technologies that accelerate transportation communications etc which is a fair interpretation I think of his first phrase but the second use of that term was at the very end where he basically said um give themselves you know encouraging people to give
(02:18) themselves into scientific discoveries that uh manipulate space and time the internet is not a scientific discovery um again the the nature of set statements is they're um plausibly ambiguous right they don't really tell you and you just kind of have a rot test and folks that see the message there get a little bit of a wink out of it other folks see it as just a bunch of noise and we're kind of left talking like we're talking the Malaysian Airlines people are all over this yeah i mean the whole thing is is mostly
(02:57) I think a a grift that's been spun up around a cultlike leader so I tend not to engage with that the the orbs did not uh teleport the plane into another dimension or somewhere else on Earth i mean there were likely orbs those are real things um but I think that particular uh event has been spun up by bad faith actors looking to basically manipulate community of people and collect their Patreon donations so there's lots of other crazy conspiracies and very interesting topics that I think have uh I mean as Skywatcher I can talk about
(03:35) lots of crazy stuff and so it's it's interesting where where I draw the line um I just see uh I just see that as uh I don't know a bit of um a bit of noise you're saying I shouldn't have that guy on the podcast i've had a bunch of people reach out to me this week like you got to get Moy i I mean you do you do what you want to do with your podcast um but uh I have I have my opinion yeah it is crazy do you think if it was the uh nonchalant disclosure I forget how you worded it specifically but this as if as if matter of
(04:16) fact could it be light signaling toward China while while we're having this geopolitical boxing match with tariffs sort of like a light message hey China yes we're in this trade war but we also have some technology that you may not be aware of that we could leverage if you get too far into this trade war yeah i mean that's you can take that as a speculative hypothesis and one data point you know in that direction is what Trump said in the Oval Office when he was interviewed by a bunch of folks shortly after the tariff war kicked off
(04:50) talking about essentially you know he's riffing on lots of stuff but he basically mentioned his his sense of confidence in our in our in our defense and our weapons capabilities and uh made statements to the effect that we have weapons that are so much stronger nobody nobody has any idea how they work right they're stronger than any than anyone uh has on uh you know on earth and uh they're so strong they're so powerful you know nobody even understands how they work and he's I think you know pointing that to China is like we got
(05:20) some stuff up our sleeve don't think about it um and then I think in the context of this larger geoeconomic reordering and geopolitical kind of uh confrontation you could say is underway that's across all these different dimensions of the global system the trade system the financial system uh and then these more deep deepseated structures of of power right like telecommunication systems space and ultimately you know uh deterrence uh on you know military basis and so this is a a lot of posturing a lot of rhetoric a
(05:54) lot of subtle signaling um and there's a you know a larger strategic objective by at least the more I'd say long rangeoriented elements of the Trump administration to try to reanchor a uh system with the US at the center uh to kind of hold the line against a ambitious cinosphere across all these different domains and uh but you know the hedgeimon has has some weaknesses has some strategic vulnerabilities treasury markets um a sense that uh we are uh decaying global power uh in in some parts of the world so they want to kind of again make
(06:31) America great again right they want to res restore a sense of uh America as the industrial and technological leader uh of the civilization and to extend and define a much more uh explicit uh zone for other countries uh to sort of submit to you know basic American uh leadership so essentially a tech tariff and security zone so you need to have kind of carrots and six uh if you want to do that right and so you want to look at all the different you know uh cupboards and drawers of where you might have uh some uh carrots and sticks to try to
(07:08) wield in this you know high stakes negotiation or try to pull countries into your orbit and so it probably you know is a delicate balancing act to sort of subtly hint at not just to China but to other countries around the world do we have some aces up our sleeve right that maybe the world isn't isn't counting into the overall balance of of leverage right ultimately everyone's looking around and saying okay if I had to boil it down it's a lot more complicated it's essentially the US is trying to force countries to pick a side
(07:34) right to more to get off the fence to not kind of try to be balancing powers but to more overtly uh you know commit to US uh alignment and away from you know entanglements trade cooperation etc with China and so you have to kind of make it look like you're you still got it right you got to kind of hint that you still have the juice uh to run the global system or at least provide a credible um protection as well as you know uh enticement uh that there's some goodies uh down the line if you align with the US and if you don't align with
(08:10) the US maybe you will get um you know less privileged access to those goodies that could be coming down the line so I think this is part of this this larger game that's why I think this topic isn't um isn't irrelevant in fact it's very I think very critically relevant to these larger geopolitical and geoeconomic shakeoffs because ultimately if you assume that this is true you know don't folks don't have to assume that is true but if you if you do um you know some something like this this plot that you know we've talked about before
(08:38) um then it's it's going to be top of mind or at least in the back of everyone's mind especially at these uh at the high table of of geopolitical bargaining right like Russia knows that we know that they know china knows that we know that they know etc and so when you're thinking about how people are positioning and bluffing or not when they allude to who's got the most strategic resilience or aces up their sleeve this has got to be you know very very much relevant um and so let's dive into the potential of an ace actually being up our sleeve
(09:14) for the people who may be skeptical out there who witnessed that matter of fact admission and just thought it was it was noise like I mentioned earlier you've been doing work at Skywatcher and I I just want to pull up I'm going to read from my notes here about what your team is working on I'm was with somebody last week who was describing it to me I was like what the heck is Matt and his team up to what what are you doing what are you doing so your team is testing two main hypotheses for UAP interaction electromechanical signaling using
(09:48) tailored electronic signals to attract UAPs and neuro meditative interaction the role of human consciousness what is it and what have been the most surprising findings that you guys have uh discovered using these methods yeah so so my career has take an interesting turn right so after doing uh years of more government national security consulting and geopolitical risk cyber consulting and then um taking on the executive director uh position at at Bitcoin Policy Institute where obviously our our our mission is uh is
(10:24) uh extremely high tempo to try to uh decisively shift uh Marota Pro Bitcoin direction and and and translate that into concrete uh policy action uh I I also kind of dip my foot more professionally in the UAP water i become a strategic adviser to uh this firm called uh Skywatcher uh which is uh you know essentially a uh organization dedicated to collecting uh highly you know rigorous information related to anomalous phenomenon uh in the sky to perform rigorous data uh analysis and scientific uh assessment of of that information and then to
(11:05) communicate results publicly to try to resolve this fundamental question right are there anomalous objects in the sky and it's essentially there's two paths to coming up to an answer to that question you can rely on the government to declassify information or to make uh statements you know official statements or issue reports uh on that subject in which case you're you're still essentially trusting the government you know in what it says uh but the sky isn't classified right and so if there is a reality to this
(11:31) phenomenon right with the right people the right skills the right capabilities you can just go out and do things right and actually demonstrate uh to to a higher degree of of of satisfaction by you know peers in the scientific community uh and more broadly that this is a real phenomena and that seemed like a a more fanciful possibility until folks uh you know started to ask that question uh to themselves folks that had relevant backgrounds and skills and resources and decided to basically assemble uh you know this team uh which
(12:02) is what SkyWatcher is folks that have highly relevant information um and knowledge about these these sorts of topics uh have come from uh you know related government associated activities and bring their technical skills to bear to actually you know go out and try to collect this this data and share that uh you know in a deliberate fashion you know with the public and the broader scientific community and so there's kind of two two core questions right that we released this document called the Skywatcher discovery framework again
(12:34) kind of this um anchor point this isn't about a fanciful you know uh kind of a skinwalker ranch type of of a sort of media operation it's like okay how do we seriously collect data on this question uh and uh put you know put resources to that task and basically it's you know principal objective is to validate this idea that there are um anomalous objects in the sky uh anomalous meaning you know in terms of their performance characteristics in terms of their apparent morphologies now answering that question doesn't doesn't answer the
(13:10) origin question right it just says there are some things in the sky that are doing things that normal objects don't do and so you need to have multiple sensors you know different types of sensors you need to do this repeatably um you need to do it in a rigorous fashion continue to have consistent data collection you know we're talking radar electrooptical multiple bands of infrared um you know direction finding you know with lasers to get to get distance multiple human observation um and this effort is obviously you know
(13:38) maturing and expanding so there might be more more types of sensors coming down the line um and additional capabilities uh you know brought to bear to help um you know tighten up the the type of analysis that can be done that's basically the core question uh and so there are certain techniques uh that are that are being applied in the field um because if you just took these sensors out into any random location you know maybe you'll see some stuff right there's other efforts out there to try to just have a good and consistent data
(14:08) collection to sort of point sensors at the sky and try to see what you can see um the folks at Skywatcher have a uh you know well motivated hypothesis that there's a a way essentially improving the odds that you see something uh and there's two methods that we have have have hypothesized are uh ways of improving the odds that anomalous phenomena will will appear near your sensors the first is you know colloally called this dog whistle uh a certain way of essentially sending out signals uh electronic mechanical related signals uh
(14:39) that will attract UAPs to to your location um they have a reason to believe that that's uh effective but of course we want to prove it we want to demonstrate to a certain degree of statistical reliability that it is in fact doing what we think it's doing and then the second is uh neuromditative techniques right certain individuals engaging in a certain state of consciousness uh result in similar uh phenomenon appearing in your location and we assess kind of at our preliminary stage right now uh and we've you know
(15:10) written that into that that report that's you know different levels of confidence right different levels of kind of discovery uh kind of sort of where we would sort of set the marker for where we think these um these uh these hypothesis stand uh is moving from anecdata right anecdotes blurry cell phone videos people with claims and first-person experiences that's a that's where you most of the conversation is right it's it's somewhat um uh incoit sometimes very compelling but fundamentally uh ad hoc uh inconsistent
(15:43) uh not sort of to a scientific level of of rigor and so we want to move from that to uh standardized data collection and that's kind of the core of this whole operation is just being consistent being standardized being rigorous being professional um using high-end uh equipment and practices to actually try to um collect good data and then generate hypothesis that you can that you can test that you can look look through and try to demonstrate with a certain degree of confidence resolves to um uh you know ruling out uh confounding
(16:14) uh potential explanations birds balloons etc uh but uh you know ultimately isolates down to a high degree of confidence that there's a truly anomalous phenomena and then you can share that publicly and hopefully move the conversation forward so I wouldn't say we have we claim that these two techniques are uh proven but we have reason to believe that they could they could be uh effective and we want to know you know if you can't prove those two things those would be kind of a big deal uh and so uh yeah it's an
(16:43) exceptionally ambitious project I would say right maybe absurdly ambitious um but the folks involved you know I wouldn't have associated myself with it if I didn't think that uh if there was a group out there that you know could could credibly take a good crack at it um this would be the group right uh and uh you know I've sort of taken a bunch of swings at these low probability uh high impact uh you know activities in the past and um I don't know i have a hunch on this one listen freaks I know you're tired of me talking about Fold
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(18:39) world use the key TFTC20 at checkout for 20% off your order that's bit.world code TFTC20 all right let's let's dive further into this like how like the two the neuritetative and the signaling what technology behind the signaling and the I guess the theory or the practice behind the neuritative part of it and then the data collection is it simply observational data like we do something and something appears or is there something else you're measuring in the electromagnetic field or some other sort of measurement that you're taking
(19:17) yes so the the data collection piece is continuing to refine and expand right there's always uh lots of different things you can try to measure right um and uh they've only really done three operations so far right so the basic um SOP is essentially doing these events you know uh multi-day events out out in the desert essentially an isolated location and you have you know large numbers of people with equipment um out in different you know uh locations you know executing these sort of test events essentially um and
(19:50) so you want to place the sensors and you want to basically observe what what happens over over over multiple days and try to demonstrate or build up at least a uh uh you know an evidence base uh over time um of what you can detect on on multiple sensors and so yeah the principal sensors are you know radar uh electrooptical so you know fancy cameras um multiple bands of infrared uh multiple human obser you sort of human observers both in ground as well as aerial platforms so helicopters um and laser range fighters right so you can
(20:27) see if the object has a you know is in a certain distance away from you so the objective with just that core sensor package is to try to um get multiple correlations on an object to understand okay like how far is it away how high is it how fast is it moving what are its uh what's its radar cross-section what are its sort of signatures when it bounces back from the radar you can tell some things about the about the object just based off of kind of the the return profile um kind of the heartbeat of of the object uh from the radar uh but
(20:56) there's other things you could put out there right in terms of um uh magnetometers uh sort of uh other sort of detections along parts of the electromagnetic spectrum you know radio frequency detection um so there's a there's there's lots of things you could try to put out there i mean the more sensors you add the more data you've got to analyze and crosscorrelate so it just becomes you know a larger operation and so I think the objective is to be deliberate about bringing more sensors in uh I'm not you know I'm just an
(21:22) adviser i'm not running these operations but uh yeah I mean that's basically what what you what you what what you have to do here if you want to try to rule out okay you see something on a on a on a video and you're like "Okay that looks weird right?" But okay weird is weird is weird right weird could be a plane at an odd angle or a balloon floating across the screen right but if it's moving against the wind at a at a at a consistent velocity okay it's probably not a balloon right well what could be it could be a weird drone okay well you
(21:49) you you have a reference class of of video of what a drone looks like at a certain distance and you can get you know a laser rangefinder on this object and you know that's not it's at the same approximate distance and you know that it's not a drone right so it's about eliminating possible explanations to ultimately get down to something this is not something prosaic um and then you have to uh try to determine what what it is and so in the most recent release uh uh Skywatcher put out uh basically you know described at a very high level kind
(22:18) of nine categories of of UAP that had been uh observed again not like a final classification of you know what their origin is or exactly what they are just essentially purely like phenomenological like there's a certain thing that we've seen that we'll just come up with a name for that thing uh and I think we're going to come up with more information about each of those uh in in the in the coming few weeks and months um but uh but yeah so you can you know watch those videos and see how this is all described
(22:49) um but yeah so this is you know ultimately it's like okay how can you do real science with this and real science is hard you have to be patient um you know and one of the things that attracted me to this whole thing was that you the UAP thing is either you're you're actually behind the circle in which case you're not talking about it or you're on podcasts and it's just pretty people's stories right or that's you know somebody's random video on YouTube or or Twitter and that's basically you know like sort of round
(23:15) and round we go right uh and uh I feel like somebody has to kind of try to move the ball down the field and you know it takes takes effort it takes time and money and it's uh you know so I'm like hey I really want someone to try to try to answer this question uh in a way that's uh uh transparent to the public so just go do it our good friends Parker Lewis and Drew Bonsol are two of the deepest thinkers in Bitcoin and while they come from very different backgrounds they've landed on the exact same conclusion it's Bitcoin that
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(24:07) com/tc in terms of inciting UAPs to appear is that dependent on the technology and I don't even know how to describe the neuritetative part of it so I would like to dive in there or is it the location cuz you read stuff you watch documentaries and they talk about particular places on the planet where certain things happen the pyramids may be where they are because of this tesla was in Colorado because uh it was um optimal to do what he was trying to do with his Tesla coils is there something about these specific locations or is it more dependent on the technology
(24:51) you're using to signal to incite a an appearance or combination of the two well separate from Skywatcher and I've I've observed just in the in kind of like the semiofficial historical record right coming from from ERA for example they've put out um maps that show hotspots obviously there's kind of a lot of confounding biases there because they're sort of detecting where their sensors are so there's a you know I think a a lot of noise in that um there also have been you know semicreditredible repeatable ally kind
(25:25) of reports of consistent observations in certain parts uh of the world certain you know sort of maritime lural areas uh certain certain areas of the US uh and there's a plausibility of that right but it's very hard to you know that that I don't think there's much of a systematic analysis right um maybe the US government with a lot of global sensor collection has identified and pinpointed certain hotspots and maybe people you know in the no kind of subtly act on that knowledge when they do things um or they go to look for certain
(25:57) locations um for Skywatcher I don't know if that's motivated any particular locations i think it's a lot of it's just you know operational flexibility right like you need to have a large space uh that you can uh you can operate in that's uh secure that's uh that's um uh that's relatively you know remote and doesn't have as you know uh has has as little clutter in the in the air as possible cuz you know Skywatch is not the military we can't just like roll up and you know just sort of do stuff um we're going to have like a military base
(26:30) where we have you know hundreds of square miles to sort of freely operate in um and uh yeah so I think given those constraints I we're trying to pick a location but um I guess it's my understanding is that you know it again we're dealing with a lot of uncontrolled variables here but the uh dog whistle right is is apparently effective you know wherever you put it right um but maybe you only can get a good high high fidelity observation if you turn it on in a relatively uncluttered area right um if you turn it on in the middle of
(27:05) New York City right like not sure like what would happen if it would people Yeah discern what what's happening with all the other stuff going on um so yeah I think that's that's that uh now like the specifics of the of the electronic kind of methods the specific frequencies or or modulations or or whatever I don't I don't know it um I kind of don't want to know it right i think that's information that's uh should be should be closely held until you have a better understanding of of the phenomenon that you could be
(27:35) triggering um so I think it's a matter of discretion to to to assess that um and then the neur the neuritative stuff is obviously the most like evocative and challenging to I think baseline worldviews about the nature of human consciousness or consciousness in general um but uh yeah it's uh it's becoming increasingly uh relevant to to this larger issue and I think more socially acceptable particularly with something like the telepathy tapes becoming popular very big right now mhm says "This is what is happening
(28:11) skywatcher Skywatcher is taking a bunch of autistic people to the desert and they're Oh well they're not autistic as well i mean I don't know i'm not I haven't diagnosed them i'm being a bit facicious here." Uh but uh and I think there'll be more information about the psionics piece or the neurommenitative operators piece in the next release so I don't want to like pre you know jump ahead of that um but uh yeah I mean at least I mean I was out there and I talked to some of these folks and they're like they're normal people or
(28:39) they're not they're not the sort of autistic children in the telepathy tapes thing they're just individuals that have claimed to had certain experiences and and also have developed certain um practices that allow them to uh to engage consciously with with craft or at least to um have the perception that they are uh and then have craft appear um that in our assessment right now is like very very very preliminary right um we have reason to believe by other other sources that this could be relevant but like as far as we've been able to
(29:10) demonstrate out in the field we haven't you know conclusively demonstrated that that's a thing um but we have enough you know uh of a basis to try to demonstrate it right and and and try to collect scientific data along the way right um which is a hard hard thing to do uh you know with a with a like a dog whistle right it's a electronic signal you can turn it on turn it off and if you have a large large enough sample set you you you know essentially try to just get the correlations and and the t tests down to a point where you can say "Yep
(29:41) yep we have highly dispositive confirmation of an anomalous object and it happens to correlate with a certain degree of statistical confidence when the when the dog whistles on." It's harder to do that you know in a field setting with with the neuromitative operators right but um it's not impossible uh so ultimately it's like taking these questions from the from the realm of metaphysical speculation and kind of wooy uh you know implication to just like okay the world could be such a way how can we do something to try to
(30:14) indicate whether it is that way and uh and and and sort of shake off whatever prior like you have right a lot of people have like a folk metaphysics or a folk physics uh in their heads and they just assume the world is a certain way um I mean I did physics and philosophy i I I had to you know I wanted to understand like what is the way the world is right and the way the world is from the perspective of Isaac Newton developed a certain set of models a certain set of uh ontologies that were quite successful uh for for his time at
(30:42) trying to understand the world and then develop technologies to exploit that knowledge and the history of scientific revolutions has always been a one of of uh changing the fundamental paradigm of science over over over long periods of time that that ultimately end up shifting the core kind of metaphysical assumptions um that uh that that humanity has about the nature of reality and so we happen to be in the you know first quarter of the 21st century with a certain set of metaphysical models and physical models uh of the world and uh
(31:12) you know the lesson of history is that uh those are likely to change um and the other lesson of history is that physics is not just this sort of uh ivory tower practiced by a bunch of eggheheads at you know universities it's a core function of governments to secure national strategic advantage like the lesson you know even World War I there was a lesson of the application of chemistry right for uh gas uh weapons and high explosives and then there was the dramatic uh exploitation of physics in the in the 30s um to develop nuclear
(31:48) weapons and I don't think that lesson was lost on national governments that uh physics research is the foundation of national power um and that it is the key that unlocks uh the next strategic breakthrough in both energy weapons and propulsion technology so my basic thesis is I don't think open physics was really allowed to happen after 1945 um and uh so part of this is okay there's a certain part of uh the world uh a certain knowledge about the world that has maybe been intentionally kept uh secret maybe for good reason
(32:25) maybe there's some some knowledge that's inherently dangerous knowledge but you know I think that's a reasonable proposition but uh it's a it's a difficult question um and yeah so I think I think generally speaking folks think they know what the world is and how it works and I think people's level of confidence in their in those assumptions is is uh way too high and so that's why I think these questions are ultimately you know scientific questions they're not questions of you know will we speculation or podcast or like go out
(32:56) get the data show me that there's an anomaly there that my present models can't account for um and usually scientific paradigms uh shift when you have a uh an accretion of anomalies right there are there's a certain consensus that's baked in about a certain set of frameworks or scientific explanations and then interesting experiments happen or observations happen that are you know not easily explained by that central you know consensus paradigm but the paradigm doesn't just automatically you know take that in usually it rejects it usually
(33:30) says no no no it's not possible it rules it out primmaaci you know telepathy is not possible remote viewing is not possible you know uh consciousness is just a um emergent phenomenon of neurobiological and chemical processes like we already have a full explanation of all this there's no anomalies there so because they don't fit they kind of bounce off right but if they keep accumulating uh you get to this um moment of dissonance right where you know there's a a recognition that there are true anomalies that the present uh conceptual
(34:00) paradigm can't explain and ultimately you know it's like science science progresses through you know like one funeral at a time right this is kind of the lesson you know you had kind of the certain models of science like Thomas [ __ ] or uh who had the sort of coin the term paradigm shifts but other you know philosophers of science um fra uh popper kind of understood this general process is a somewhat nonlinear um and that maybe we're at a moment of kind of a nonlinear uh shift in both our scientific models of reality as well as
(34:32) maybe a more you know like our taking taking metaphysics seriously right like the phil you know essentially what what attracted me uh to to uh physics and philosophy is like these core questions uh is really kind of two which is uh what's the nature of reality from a from a description that we can write down in math which is physics and what's the nature of reality that that we experience uh as as a subjective conscious being right and those are basically like what's what's physics and what's consciousness questions and
(35:01) ultimately like I see the sort of you know Skywatcher initiative essentially is taking at least a bite at at a certain part of that apple which is okay if there are anomalous objects out there um truly not anomalous that are non of non-human origin well that is a very suggestive and highly valuable hint at new physics and if it turns out that there's a deep connection at least phenomenologically between human consciousness and those objects well that you know also is highly suggestive direction uh to explore to understand
(35:30) the nature of consciousness so these are the two most funable questions about reality that humans have at the moment i don't know i want to try to get at least closer to the answer i do as well i love this stuff it's extremely hubistic and naive to think that there's that we've figured it all out i I think time history has shown that whenever society thinks they figured it all out somebody like Newton comes comes along it's like well actually the world may work this way and when it comes to the neuritative side
(36:05) telepathy remote viewing manifestation like there there's definitely something that we were actually talking about it yesterday is uh was Matt was like ah stop talking about this Matt Odell but uh I truly believe like it's funny like the amount of Bitcoin blocks that have been mined via Bitaxes in the last year is somewhat uh somewhat anom anomalous when you factor in the amount of hash rate they produce versus the amount of blocks that that that they produce then somebody mentions the other day was like it may be like some form of quantum
(36:42) bending via manifestation the fact that we can see the chips and we're thinking about is this going to mine a block uh does that sort of bend reality and and shift the probability in the favor of owners of Bitaxes just because they have this somewhat uh ability to manifest block production because they're looking at the chip produced in the hashes i don't know if that's that's true or not but I think it's just interesting to explore those type of ideas i don't know if I've ever talked about the experiment with you but I definitely talked about
(37:12) with Jesse Michaels um you know well when he was on the podcast but the experiment of the um the light in the box with the four quadrants the plant in one quadrant and had a probabilistic random generator where it should hit each quadrant equally over a certain period of time but when the plant's in the box it hits the quadrant with the plant in it um at a at a higher rate than than should happen so there is this like sort of quantum bending of life towards um of life being able to sort of bend reality in its favor and it
(37:45) definitely gets into the quantum realm which fascinates me and I'm not going to pretend like I can fully understand it but I think my caveman brain is attuned enough to be like there's there there's a there there I think yeah yeah I mean this is again I it's it's funny because if you had talked to me I'd say even two three years ago about this stuff I would have been kind of this look down my nose at you kind of sneering hottie oh you're just you're just mixing quantum gibberish you know woo woo nonsense with
(38:13) some halfbaked studies that people want to be true right and uh you know I was a hard-nosed physics guy okay give me the equation give me the studies give me the give me the math right don't give me this woo woo quantum [ __ ] um and I still have this sort I'd say a visceral reaction to kind of woo quantum [ __ ] where you have a mystery that seems non-local and you just go oh quantum is this sort of non-local mystery and so that explains this other non-local mystery this kind of connection between quantum mechanics and consciousness is
(38:42) kind of at the surface level the thing people kind of reach for when it's just oh bunch of weird sort of wooy newagy things it's quantum healing etc um I find I have a sort of a visceral visceral aversion to it but on the other hand I know there's something really weird going on in reality right that we don't have a coherent framework for it and there are uh I think deep structures to to existence that are heavily related to what it means to be an observer um I won't go too far down that particular you know category theoretic and
(39:15) hyperraph model rabbit hole but uh I think ultimately this kind of newagy kind of surface level intuition isn't at the end of the day doesn't end up being wrong it's kind of it's kind of the bell curve thing right or like whatever that the meme right where it's like the left of the bell curve is just yeah like consciousness is not local quantum mechanics is non-local like you can manifest reality and the midcurve is like no physicalism is real you know consciousness is just an emergent phenomenon right daniel Dennit
(39:45) Churchinder right like none of this newagy [ __ ] is real and then the right curve is like basically some you know extremely obstruuse category theoric you know model of the computational branch pairs of existence and you know new spendex completion and foliation of the hyperraph yada yada yada right and it's like ultimately it just turns into yeah observers are essentially slicing reality in a certain preferred reference frame similar observers slice it in a similar way so they observe a similar reality that
(40:13) exists sort of we exist essentially in a um a common say epistemic and reference frame But uh you know so there's a deep kind of metaphysical and physical relationship between the nature of observers and how they they kind of slice through what is a much more kind of I think highly variegated complex almost infinite dimensional object and that ultimately just you know you just describe that as yeah yeah yeah essentially you know something like manifestation could be considered true although probably not in the way it's
(40:41) kind of typically packaged up in like the secret right it just happens to turn out that human consciousness and consciousness in general is is an irreducible and fundamental feature of reality and so once you have to bite that bullet you have to kind of you know kind of invert the way you normally think about um the the relationship between uh objective independent observables right the things that we normally take to be sort of the concrete stuff of existence that we are are observing or interacting with the kind
(41:06) of the phenomenon that we measure as part of our our experience um and there's a you know a very kind of fraught you know age-old question in his in in philosophy of science and uh ontology sort of the nature of the external world and you know realism versus objectivism um and I think like all these sorts of classic philosophical dichotoies it's always kind of a mix of both is the answer right that they're kind of false dichotoies um but you know you can go from there you ultimately this is the way prop science sort of
(41:39) works is you need to kind of go out and do the frontier experiments to kind of try to collect anomalies and then on the other end you need to have like serious scientists philosophers essentially trying to come up with candidate explanations that are trying to reach to that data and try to like interplay and do a dance with those anomalies and to try to come up with a new conceptual framework right right i think ultimately we're going to the we're going to have to be we're going to have to come up with new frameworks like new
(42:04) vocabularies new models new math essentially that's kind of been the history i expect that that that to continue um and uh and then you know we're going to wake up in 20 30 years and it's just going to be kind of accepted that that that the world is a different way than we thought you know 20 30 years before um and uh but yeah I mean the the neuritative stuff is the one that I was the the toughest for me to kind of bite the bullet on or at least thus far i'm I'm you know I'm suspending disbelief um certainly
(42:32) um and I've also had very interesting interactions with people you know very very powerful individuals that like hold to some some some similar sorts of beliefs um and you know it's you know human beings are fallible at all scales right there's a a fractal dis you know disposition to uh heterodox beliefs and you know uh things that also tend to give you a sense of your own power right if you uh if you believe that you can if your will you know is is essentially metaphysical in the world it's a sense of oh I can I
(43:10) can now uh I can manifest existence Um yeah that that's a difficult question for me because it's always a it dances between the metaphor and the ontological implication right and uh but the the story of the Bitax is like okay well the good thing about Bitcoin is it's a you know it's a probabistic process right so you should be able to tell over time if that's a statistically relevant anomaly I haven't done the math it'll be interesting to see like how far how many standard deviations is it from you know just a pure p whether it's a poison
(43:45) process or something like that um is uh is uh is that uh is that block reward um coming in and there was a a major lab set up at Princeton called the Princeton parasychology lab which was doing these experiments for many years it was shut down maybe 10 years ago but uh but they were they took a basically a serious effort i think maybe you know Jesse Michaels has talked about some of those things um you know different studies that they had done to try to like you know pin down like these like anomalous fringe sigh related phenomenon um and uh
(44:16) some people are convinced that they're legit um there's some interesting things you can do now with like uh random random number generators or quantum uh random number generators uh which I mean I've seen some results of I haven't seen like you know the the scientific um papers but um interesting you know sort of initial data you know quantum random quantum random number gener is a pretty simple thing it's like you have a photon source a beam splitter and then kind of two detectors A and B and so and this is
(44:47) like a pretty standard setup in any physical uh any sort of uh any optical physics lab which I worked in uh at Hopkins setting up these beam splitters so they're really really precise in the sense you can pretty much get exactly 50% kind of split right between detector A to detector B um and they're used a lot in quantum computing all sorts of stuff and so it's but you can package up a pretty small device and so it's a photon source beam splitter two detectors and you can just have a read on the screen which is like you know
(45:13) this line of like you know uh A and B right and so like say there's a million photons a second and it's doing a measurement say 10 times a second you're basically getting a plot of at any given point in time you know was it was it was it A or B and it's like a smooth average right um so you would expect right that line to just be 50% right kind of tiny little fluctuations right just sort of random noise above 50/50 um but what if you put people around it that are engaging in these uh uh you know apparent neuritative practices um do you
(45:46) see deflection characteristically from the 50% uh do you see that deflection above a certain cyclical threshold say one in 100 or one in 200 does that does that deflection take on a characteristic curve is that characteristic curve a degree of deflection consistent over many repeated trials if you did that experiment I think that's like highly suggestive data there's something anomalous happening how and why or what uh remains to be explained but I don't think you could just rule out that observation if you were able to demonstrate that there's a
(46:16) statistically significant anomaly there that's a pretty simple experiment that can be done right now um and uh yeah I think that's kind of what you just need to do right uh so maybe we'll be doing that so you just have somebody engaging in neurommeditative activity basically standing there and being like I'm rooting for a and just like thinking a a a I mean this is beyond my expertise but I don't know if it's literally you root for a or you just engage in a certain you know lots of people engage in these practices right they're not like super
(46:49) anomalous right like transcendental meditation holotropic breathing uh you know do like hemisync boral beats like it's not truly exotic but um you know it just you know shifts people into different states of consciousness they're just you know they they they you know people that meditate kind of know that right kind of qualitative it's a different experience right and different traditions have different names for it but it's very clear that there are different states of consciousness human beings can engage in I mean the most
(47:15) exogenous ones are induced by psychedelics right where it's very clear that when you're on different psychedelics the world you you perceive is radically different the degrees of freedom the structures the patterns the phenomenological presentation of information is like radically different um so you know whether you ascribe ontological reality to that presentation is a whole separate like loaded question but it's very clear that like the normal waking sort of conscious mode where we're navigating reality or having
(47:42) conversations or assessing you know you know the like the workday the emails is like a certain narrow slice of the of the the space of possible conscious states that humans can engage in um and then there's a question if there are certain sets of those states that have a non-local effect on random processes for example that's a that's a scientifically formulatable and testable question yeah and then and then and the telepathy tapes is the same thing which is like I I same thing i was I was very much um uh intrigued uh had my curiosity peaked uh
(48:20) uh certainly by by those episodes um and I think it's uh it's about time we have the you know the science done right let's have you know again it's a difficult more fraud thing you got to get IRB approval you have to put you know these are these are children right these are these are families um that are claiming to have these abilities uh uh in these conditions and so you have to kind of set up the right controlled experimental conditions to try to see okay can they actually read the minds of their parents from an isolated room
(48:49) right can you show that that that uh that uh that knowledge that they have could not be gained in any other way than through some sort of non-local consciousness right and it's typically with the mothers right again when you say typically it's like I have seen no data so I've seen no like tea tests of like but you know people can construct all sorts of plausible explanations you know pair bonding evolutionary selection you know early infants can't communicate so they have to bond with the mother and if there's
(49:18) this um natural ability that's in all sort of biological creatures above a certain level of evolution the evolution would select for it um at a certain phase of development and that would maybe lead to a bias in terms of the the gendered presentation of that effect yeah no I've I mean this is weird it's going to sound weird i've I've had experience like this in my life where my brother and I were Irish twins we're only 11 months apart we shared a room for 18 years and we have I'd like to think we have a deep connection there was an instance
(49:52) uh my sister-in-law my brother-in-law the night of their wedding or the morning after the night of their wedding i woke up and my cousin my wife my then girlfriend uh and I slept in the same room and my cousin had actually shared a room my brother and I down the shore in summers over over like a 10-year period my cousin and I woke up and the first thing we thought is like there's something wrong with Connor and lo and behold like he was in the hospital and there was just something we both like woke up and just
(50:24) like I had a weird feel feeling we're like there's something wrong with Connor specifically like we both singled in on my brother and he was in the hospital and um that was like a weird an example of something like this that um that I truly believe this isn't the only example I've heard of but like there there is some sort of weird you see hear with twins all the time like there is this sort of telepathic connection yeah no I I've heard similar similar stories right and this is this is why it's so elusive and
(50:58) it's hard to pin down because often often the stories when you experience them they're extremely compelling and you kind of know that that what happened happened right and it's I think a very similar um epistemics to like the UFO phenomenon right well like people that observe these things that have a first person encounter uh with these objects or with the beings it's like they know this is real right but it's it's hard but it it's a personal story it's like it creates this um this kind of cleavage between their
(51:31) sense of the reality of what they experienced and then anyone who hasn't and it's like how to communicate the veriticality of that experience to a a third person that that hasn't seen it so it's just kind of this accretion of people having these anomalous experiences building up over time i think we've seen this kind of take place and then also the social taboos against discussing it as a thing right there's always lots of pre preference falsification in society certain sets of taboos where topics are considered um
(51:58) you know offlimits to discuss and I think both of these taboos and obviously Bitcoiners know know how to observe when taboos are shifting right in society um where where you just you're like yeah this is a thing that's an in-group kind of um discussion topic but I know the out group sees it as fringe or taboo or not serious those are not objective facts those are just how human beings choose to relate to certain issues And I think the UAP phenomenon and SCI phenomenon are are two very important subjects that are undergoing this this
(52:29) uh socialization process um and we're in the middle of it right now um but that that idea of synchronicity that idea of non-local connection between human beings or even animals um is is something I take very seriously right as like data right I have you know lots of potential will be like physical and metaphysical explanations for it but um it's also something I think the government has paid close attention to for a long period of time right so uh just like it kind of served the government's interest to have kind of
(52:57) UAPs be a fringe taboo subject that was scorned by uh popular discuss ussion uh as part of a psychological operation to to you know dissuade serious attention on it i think the same thing uh has has has been uh has been underway on the on the SCI side right i think for very similar reasons um and so the supposition then that I've drawn is uh okay I believe with a high likelihood that there are legacy programs so to speak that have been under high degrees of compartmentalization associated with uh UAP retrieval and reverse engineering um
(53:34) of non-human objects craft with highly anomalous material construction and you know performance characteristics I think also the study of anomalous forms of human consciousness um or capacities associated with human human consciousness have also been the subjects of deep and very serious long-running study by US government or related entities and I think those two research activities were intimately related um and uh and so yeah I think this is the the rest of the world sort of slowly and very haltingly and um uncomfortably
(54:08) kind of adjusting itself to certain facts and and knowledge that uh certain elements of of our society uh have known for for some time um and this is the process of integrating that knowledge in a in a deliberative fashion across society that's the process we're under we're undergoing right now yeah i you know me they call me Marty Jones i'm very uh very much open to all these theories and all that but I think the the smoking gun for me this was years ago Menister Steric goats like I I truly believe that the government does try to
(54:43) normalize some ideas via Hollywood and I think that movie specifically was like the government's working on remote viewing and telepathic sort of endeavors and it's been laid bare in declassified documents that they have been testing this stuff yeah and it's it's not like a historical thing like those are active programs um pretty sure of that uh I mean you just read uh Luzando's book um and and going back to your uh your point about okay the the there seems to be some biological connection here uh some evolutionary selection pressure here uh
(55:24) and it doesn't take a whole lot to kind of engineer a kind of plausible scientific explanation which is if if consciousness is fundamental if there are degrees of freedom that are accessible to to conscious beings um there's a root structure of reality that isn't just you know essentially billy balls you know particle fields etc um then uh evolution would would would explore it right like it would just it's a degree of freedom that evolution has a selection advantage to figure out how to how to use um and if there were ways of
(55:52) essentially getting small hints of danger right um through uh through exploiting that degree of freedom well that would be a selection advantage and and maybe in modern society right or or in modern ever since we became agrarian settled civilization like that latent ability which has became attenuated um over time sort of socialized out of us especially as we grew but in certain parts of the population maybe through just genetic uh lottery as well as professional self- selection right especially individuals say involved in special operations or
(56:25) high-risisk intelligence uh activities um those those abilities that were latent or genetically um you know gifted uh uh are uh are extremely relevant and if that were the case you would expect the government to be uh very active in identifying such individuals and steering them into such programs um because they would have a selection advantage they would be less likely to get killed in an ambush right when they're conducting a high-risisk operation behind enemy lines um and maybe some some of those individuals
(56:53) might even have an exceptionally strong ability uh to engage with these other types of these anomalous programs relating to UAPs and you would want to put those individuals to work in those programs so this is kind of a basian branch uh sort of inference process where if you present someone with a proposition at the further end of the branch like the government has psychic spies that are summoning UAP objects trying to even fly them with psychic uh human beings it sounds kooky and crazy right but if you actually start from a
(57:23) you know more you know just one branch up right that's just a slight deviation from your current priors and worldviews and you just add on these plausible assumptions and uh inferences from uh government and associated first-person experiences you can kind of get yourself out to that part of the tree with only like a few hops um but most people don't do that most people just like just sort of look at the outer proposition and it it's so far from their current priors that it seems impossible um I think that's uh not likely to be true yeah I'm
(57:55) pulling this back into the context of what's going on geopolitically right now the matter of fact statement earlier this week because considering everything that's going on there does within the administration there does seem to be like a calm cool and collected um sort of stature or some sort of perspective that they're putting forward it does from my observation it does feel like they think they have an ace up their sleeve whether it's something economically um we were talking about it yesterday on the Bitcoin magazine or Bitcoin
(58:33) conference spaces like this idea of um pricing the gold up uh repricing the gold to its current price and maybe dumping it buying Bitcoin as a geopolitical move to do to China what what happened when they went on a silver standard or when the world was adopting the gold standard um you talk about the the technology that we may have that we haven't disclosed yet that that is sort of a trump card that's what that's I don't know just getting back to the metaphysical the Spidey sense that you were just describing it like observing
(59:13) all this it's just like what is being portrayed publicly in the mainstream media and even um via some press conferences by administration officials like it just seems like that's all a facade a sort of sideeshow that's being presented to the world while things are happening behind the scenes yeah I think it's actually kind of a mix of both to be honest i think you have both a kind of oy rules mentality right which is like like there's a bunch of like extremely self-confident blowhards just driving themselves off a cliff and I won't name
(59:50) certain individuals in the administration who I think have that have that type right and then I think there are kind of like the master planners who think they have ace up their sleeve right but like the Trump administration isn't this sort of um you know entirely coherent right it's like a court with lots of different factions some I think that feel like they have more far-sightedness others that are you know much more able to kind of win the president's ear for a particular purpose in a particular day so I think it's both
(1:00:17) at once right um but uh yeah I mean you're you're I had almost the same sort of sort of vibe right of of what's really going on here it's like there's a certain sense of confidence right that's undergirling this administration and it could be unfounded confidence could be this irrational odo rules um blowh hardness um but it also could be based off of what they believe is to be pretty solid advantages and there are two two categories of that uh type of advantage that they might be leaning on right one is like this very exotic type of thing
(1:00:51) like the true you know whatever breakthrough propulsion or energy that they've got you know locked up for decades that now they've got their hands on as they've taken the reigns of power and done some Doge purges and tried to like corner the legacy programs and do all the behind the scenes yada yada yada you know that's a scenario um but then there's just the more prosaic quote unquote um you know in the in the in the public domain uh technology curves that they might just be looking at as uh as giving them kind of a get out of jail
(1:01:21) free card in the next two to three years potentially sooner when it comes to AI and energy in particular right and so I mean it's no surprise that like you know folks are very much obsessed with these exponential curves on AI scaling and uh they seem to be holding uh and uh it's becoming increasingly uh the opinion inside relevant tech circles and filtering into the political circles that we're not that far away from having like you know essentially uh frontier models that are generated principally by other frontier models to
(1:01:55) the point where humans are no longer the primary factors of production for new AI systems and that is then leading people to speculate if you hit to that point in the next you know 16 24 36 months do you get to a point of uh bootstrapping self-improvement and uh that then kicks in you know a new phase of the exponential curve uh and that we could be hitting a few of these phase transitions um where most AI researches or AI research is you know accelerated dramatically um and then becomes uh less and less relevant uh with humans in the
(1:02:33) loop and then gets this sort of takeoff whether it's a slow or a fast takeoff but essentially where we become less relevant to its future improvement uh there's that sort of set of trend lines which folks are now you know pulling forward to something like 2027 2028 maybe 2029 um which is in the political time horizon of of DC now right that's like you know when JD wants to run for president right uh and uh and so that's that's one major I think exogenous variable that's coming in that's saying that's you know could be uh DSX machinet
(1:03:07) right for okay there's a bunch of tariff induced mess there's supply chain snarls there's maybe even a recession but don't worry like AGI is going to come to the rescue in 2026 2027 and everyone will forget it because we've got this productivity miracle that combined with you know the certain strong hints again it's hard to tell how much of this is people talking their book but and it's always been around the corner this idea of uh economically relevant fusion uh so Helion is you know Altman and Tealbacked firm they took soft bank money their
(1:03:40) evaluation about 4 and a.5 billion early this year um they I mean whispers are that they're they're planning to sort of inve unveil their their system which is being built on in Washington next year um I think there's a lot being lined up for like America's birthday to be honest as like uh you know okay let's let's do this big like massive flex basically on the world on your domestic politics like yeah yeah 25 25 was messy but we had to clean up the Biden regime's messes we had to deal with all the China stuff we
(1:04:12) had to like you know you know basically new like you know we had to kind of we had to crack some skulls it was messy it was it was confusing it was chaotic don't worry you know that's all behind us now and then they roll out you know the stuff they roll out oh look AI's coming it's going to it's going to it's going to it's going to be awesome we've got we've got Fusion coming it's going to be awesome we made all these trade deals we're making so much money like we're probably going to do yield curve control on the back end and we're going
(1:04:37) to be printing money to boost asset prices we're going to lie about inflation don't worry right so it's like they're going to do it's going to be a massive scop trick right but they need to have a few like you know a few things that kind of goose the popular imagination um uh so that might be part of this uh overall sense of confidence um uh but I do think like this idea of a techno-industrial revolution is top of mind for the sort of core policy engine inside the Trump administration like they're laser focused on AI robotics
(1:05:10) breakthrough energy and space and you know in principle it has nothing to do with UAPs i think in practice it it I think it's uh you're you're sort of stepping stones uh in that in that direction um and uh and yeah and I think it's no coincidence that um China sort of subtly released a news report about their own you know fusion research reactor they have a few different versions of it but this one in particular happened essentially be a clone of the particular technique that Helon uses um and so this is now like
(1:05:42) the high high stakes technology competition for these breakthrough industries now the deepseek stuff has been poured over by every think boy on Twitter but it's a real it's a real sense of concern i think ultimately we're going to head towards a recognition that um no one can really win this race to be honest um cuz if we if we get too far ahead I mean the folks behind this kind of AI 2027 kind of new report they they're worried that if the US actually gets this uh this this takeoff lead that China will literally
(1:06:17) just invade Taiwan or just like nuke the supply chains or bomb our data centers or do something like which now seems fancible but but in the in the sort of realist logic of if someone is about to have a runaway strategic overmatch you just have to eliminate it and be willing to risk war in order in order to do that and these are sorts of the propositions that sound like okay this was like a less wrong blog but now they're I think they're going to be the subject of you know high level discussions inside DC um
(1:06:47) so we're in this bizarre era of I would say accelerating disruptions the kind of hockey sticks that are overlapping and I see these three hockey sticks that I just happen to you know be paying close attention to like there's the Bitcoin hockey stick all your listeners are very focused on a bunch of you know autist saw that hockey stick coming a long time ago and you know when a bunch of autists see a certain hockey stick coming I pay attention when they start you know shaking the sh there's a hockey stick coming and this is the this is gradually
(1:07:14) and then there's going to be a suddenly here you know and most of the world goes oh you're you're crazy like that's not going to happen and you know I don't know okay I think certain subsets of of of of this uh community are are uh a little bit hyperbolic but I think the general vibe is yeah they're seeing something coming so there's that hockey stick there's the AI hockey stick and then there's the the UAP hockey stick maybe less in terms of the actual phenomenon accelerating but more like uh the preference cascade and the official
(1:07:43) um uh official stance towards the topic going going through a kind of a hockey stick which will have you actual hockey stick uh effects on our society and economy and I'm just looking at these three things and I see each community kind of in their own autistic little bubble right it's like the Bitcoiners just obsessed about Bitcoin that's the only thing hyper Bitcoinization is this astrological event it's coming you know the I I will be redeemed for having been proven right you know the naysayers the no coiners they'll get their comeuppants
(1:08:13) you know the great the great I told you so moment will will be upon us and there'll be a characteristic before and after right where Bitcoin is and Bitcoiners essentially get to run the show in the AI community it's the same idea you had kind of fringe blogs obsessed with AGI and uh now it's like okay it's now the thing inside DC just like Bitcoin is like you know it's the topic of national policy it's no secret that or it's no surprise that David Sax is the AI and cryptos are uh these are two conjoined kind of accelerating
(1:08:41) digital disruptions the UAP thing is a bit different has different underlying processes but has its own sociological characteristics like Bitcoin kind of inroup community podcasters influencers you know factions right canonical lore uh that you have to be like you have to go down the rabbit hole to understand uh and uh and then there's a there's a redemptive event that's just around the corner right instead of hypercoitinization it's it's disclosure right or instead of uh you know the singularity or the AGI takeoff it's it's
(1:09:12) this disclosure um or consciousness uh awakening and I'm just looking at these three different topics that are all like objectively accelerating in various ways depending on uh how you measure it but I'm very close to all three of them and I just discern this this acceleration um and uh they have the same sort of sociological uh patterns uh you know manifested in each um they're all happening at this roughly the same time with like a speculative you know convergence in terms of maybe a you know like kink in the curve happening towards
(1:09:47) the end of this decade which is not that far away um and uh that's just like an observation i don't know if there's an underlying explanation uh if it's just a coincidence maybe it's evidence we're in a simulation maybe I'm living in a Truman show and you know it just happens to be these like niche interests are like uh now the things driving human civilization uh potentially um but uh yeah I just have to like I'm either completely schizophrenic in a Truman show or it's actually happening um and I can't do much about being a
(1:10:16) schizophrenic uh uh or being in a treatment show so I have to operate on the assumption that it's actually happening uh in which case okay there's a high amount of leverage in making the right decisions and you know trying to interpret events in the right way you know quickly um so yeah I'm I'm could say I'm a little bit stressed out you don't look stressed you're wearing a Great Friday shirt you know i'm holding it together man i'm holding it together you know no but I complet like I I don't I still haven't figured out in my mind
(1:10:52) cuz uh I haven't gone down the rabbit hole enough how UAP sort of fits into this convergence i can definitely see the convergence of AI and Bitcoin very clearly like if this AI does become autonomous to agree a degree and it gets to the point where it's competent at completing very complex multi-stage task and interacting with with other models and other agents like it's going to need money and I think that money will be Bitcoin and it was funny not sure if you saw it the um I think it was old but the clip resurfaced yesterday the um the
(1:11:29) experiment that this company did with AI agents in Minecraft and they independently sort of converged on the gems in Minecraft and as money and essentially create like a sound money um system sound monetary system within within their Minecraft server um sort of naturally the AI agents are like "Oh no this is the best money.
(1:11:51) " So I I think something similarly will play out there with the emergence of competent agents and autonomous agents and their recognition of Bitcoin is good money and that will lead to a weird form of Bitcoin adoption where these agents actually wanted to complete task i don't know how the um UAP fits into that but I mean I could explain okay i think these things are going to converge uh so you know it requires certain more speculative assumptions but um you know like the most direct one that I can imagine is kind of uh technology change right in particular
(1:12:27) two types of technology technology that increases the efficiency of of of um refining gold from the earth's crust andor bringing asteroids into becoming uh economically viable sources of gold um if you change the stock to if you change like a onetime supply shock of gold and or you change the supply uh the stock to flow ratio of gold gold no longer ceases to to be viable as a monetary metal um and markets will discount that uh pretty quickly into the future so right now most people I say common I say baseline uh time frame for
(1:13:01) asteroid mining is 2040 on the earliest side probably if you just look at you know more likely scenarios 2050 uh to60 which is beyond most of the duration of you know most bonds um most uh most derivatives markets uh most commodity futures markets and so that's like a thing that's not priced in literally um there's no instrument really to trade that but if you had technology start diffuse in the next 5 to 10 years that uh dramatically accelerated uh or expanded the uh capabilities for uh either yeah like high efficiency uh
(1:13:37) say um laserbased uh or refining and or um novel conventional novel uh propulsion systems that made asteroid mining um much more feasible uh on a on a shorter time horizon right that would then pull forward people's expectations from say 2050 2060 to like 2030 2040 and then that starts getting priced into derivatives markets for and and commodities futures pricing around around gold um and that that's like a one-time thing right like that's human civilization was digging things out of the dirt for 5,000 years and that became
(1:14:13) monetary metal for all of our civilization and I think people just assume that like oh the technological growth curve that's accelerating in all these other ways will not have any implication on the stock to flow ratio of gold which seems like I don't know like people are making all sorts of assumptions around a a GI changing synthetic biology and breakthroughs in fusion research and all these other crazy world civilizational uh shifts on our technological capacity but no one assumes that like this one little number
(1:14:40) right from you know that's core to the to the function of gold in the monetary system goes from say 2 to 3% a year to five or 10 or 15 to 20% a year and gold then effectively becomes demonetized becomes more like a copper right um doesn't get you know I don't have to put too many assumptions into about real like aliens and [ __ ] uh to to to to make it seem that like actual gold will become demonetized in the next 10 to 20 years um uh by by by pricing in these these technological disruptions which could manifest in 20 30 years um and
(1:15:11) then there's lots of other stuff right that could compound on top of that uh and that's so in a world of like accelerating technology change and uh where the factors of production and um automation and and and and agentic uh artificial intelligence that start to produce um new processes uh that are radically more efficient and more effective than current industrial processes then I look around at anything that is currently scarce right like the like one sort of benile way of summarizing is like uh you know if we
(1:15:43) don't if the if if the ASI doesn't kill kill us or we don't use it to develop pathogens that wipe ourselves out or cyber attacks to take down the global grid if we actually get say a good you know ASI transition path you know we're going to be in a world of like decreasing scarcity for most industrial products most goods that satisfy human needs and we'll just be expanding factors of production and at an extremely high rate um and so the world system will need uh something that is that is scarce that is not going to be
(1:16:19) um uh you know uh devalued by some you know technological breakthrough right it's like the risk of the 20th century was governments will devalue your your currency right I think the risk of the 21st century is that technology will devalue your your scarce assets right um and so you're going to need digital scarcity that uh you know is is uh has difficulty adjustment so regardless of your factors of production uh breakthroughs your uh Moors law or your energy uh growth rate you know Bitcoin will still keep producing to its uh
(1:16:53) supply schedule yeah I think that's just like too much skitso to pack into one scenario i think it's likely to be true the problem is I look around DC and I see the kind of typical think tanks doing the typical think tank thing and everyone's like in a tizzy about tariffs in the geoeconomic US China jiba jaba and I'm like okay that's a six-month issue like what's what's a six-year issue a six-year issue is this stuff um and six years is like I've got young kids like okay this I'm not trading the next six months I I I
(1:17:26) want a life I want to trade in my life over the next six years to ensure that like I am prepared for these disruptions and I would the government to have a time horizon that matches mine um and I don't see that i see everyone just obsessed with the noise of the day and having a hot take and yeah well going back to um this confidence this I don't know if it's O Doyle rules confidence or um measured confidence due to information that the Trump administration has that has not been disclosed i think there were two things in recent
(1:18:02) weeks that really piqued my interest in the sense that like oh there's there's some recognition here and it plays into the geopolitical sort of brush up we have with China right now specifically is Oaklo had the red tape ripped off like Oklahoma can go begin planting your SMRs down um I think they have an official contract with the government to do something on military bases which is good to see i've been following Oaklo for years um they were um they were very active within the Bitcoin mining community like trying to just game plan
(1:18:35) with Bitcoin miners about how Bitcoin mining could help them sort of bootstrap their economic viability nice in the places they wanted to go so it's like cool to see red tape there and then the other thing I mentioned it yesterday on the spaces that we were both on the again matterof fact disclosure that in I believe 2016 or 2017 uh we were made aware that there were transformers being imported from China that were being integrated into substations that had back doors that would enable China to remote shut them
(1:19:06) down and disrupt our grid um so saying like planting this flag in the sand for anybody paying attention like no we are going to do some reshoring or shifting of our manufacturing supply chains because there is this Achilles seal that that could potentially exist within our grid system that uh in the form of this back door that China's integrated into some of these these transformers so those two things it's like recognizing that's happening and then at the same time letting the nuclear proliferation nuclear energy proliferation really
(1:19:41) begin to take off yeah what's kind of interesting our our next door neighbors uh at BPI um uh the office downtown right now which is in an industrious is is a like literally next to us and then uh just just down the hall like to one office over is a quantum computing uh uh you know company it's like okay you know they're all right there right throw them all together um but uh no I think you're you're you're right and I think my expectation I think this administration is putting together a Yeah they want to change the narrative ultimately right
(1:20:16) they kind of [ __ ] up the last two weeks and I think the the wiser hands are now taking control of the wheel and the odo rules chant is now you know saying like shut up guys like let's get let's get our [ __ ] together um and now they're you know they're trying to put together packages of big ideas i think one of those could be a multi-t trillion dollar like technoindustrial investment project um you know a big big bazooka essentially designed to hit all of these things right domestic reshoring semiconductors but also nuclear um
(1:20:50) energy supply chain as well as nuclear energy production space technologies automated manufacturing you know the idea to kind of get robotics back I mean it's basically they're panic that like China basically has the Silicon Valley ecosystem driving a flywheel but for uh advanced manufacturing and robotics and drones and EVs and they have a whole massive you know giga clusters of these sorts of integrated ecosystems that they've built up over 20 30 years and we're like oh [ __ ] we need to kind of like catch up to them on those
(1:21:25) industries and like look ourselves in the mirror and be like okay yeah we've got all the software and the whisbang gizmos and we've got but we do do we actually have the hard manufacturing capacity the industrial ecosystems to match that it's going to require trillions of dollars of crash investment which you know where's that money coming from right you're going to have to borrow right and so this idea of fiscal probity fiscal you know consolidation I think is all just a big scop um I think it's just it's just basically to
(1:21:53) engineer uh you know a certain agreement with the with the Republicans for the reconciliation process now before they find other tools um to to to to basically goose fiscal spending um but but done in a essentially their version of industrial policy and it's going to be quite controversial I think in some of the Republican coalition because there's a lot of folks that are very much you know against industrial policy but I say like the ascendant wing you know inside the US is that uh this is a techno-industrial competition uh
(1:22:26) that is for all the marbles basically and it's going to be taking place in the next you know between now and 2030 essentially and so you know Katy bar the or screw the bond market like I'm sorry guys we got to win right we're we've now like we've now declared a trade war which is effectively now total economic war with China like supply chains are effed right now like there's like no freight coming in we basically have like you know we basically mutually embargoed each other it's like we are we're like we're people are going to the mattresses
(1:22:56) right and there's you know it's a high stakes um and in that environment you know people are like "Oh you threatening the Fed independence." I'm like bro like like of course of course they are right like what why I was talking about this like 6 months ago like of course they are um now of course there's a how they do it right whether it's they literally fire him or they just basically put him in a corner or they put some sort of Doge minion by his computer that just types in instructions from from Besset or something right it's like no sorry
(1:23:23) like yeah you're not fired but like you know we've cut off all your access to your to your computer systems and uh you know uh US Marshalss are now preventing you from speaking at the podium right it's like I don't know like you could be there's lots of ways of of of you know enforcing uh physical dominance those are those are more hyperbolic but um I think that's just just is going to happen right and then we're going to use all sorts of measures to do like backdoor QE um like that's just going to happen uh we're going to
(1:23:50) use Japanese central bank to do uh you know swaps century bonds maybe even that could be funded with dollar swap lines as like a what I call like geopolitical reach around QE um it's not the Fed explicitly buying up these bonds it's just using you know providing dollar liquidity to other central banks to buy up our bonds i think that's just what what's going to happen and they're going to um they like as a sign of like the over to window shifting i was listening to um the OddLots podcast uh and they just had a guy on there a lawyer who was
(1:24:21) you know talking to them about you know this kind of Maraago core this idea of could they just um decide unilaterally to like extend the duration of existing treasury securities and you know uh um interesting you know Tracy and uh and what's his name Joe are like incredulous that the lawyer who's like teaches like this is like his niche expertise is like sovereign bond market law He's like "Yeah like the government could just decide to like extend the duration of their existing issuance there's like no contractual it wouldn't be considered a
(1:24:52) contractual default if they were just like "Yeah that 10-year bond we're going to take we're now going to pay it out over 30 years." And uh they're amortize the payments over extend the amortization schedule so they don't have to roll over debt interesting just unilaterally decide yeah like we're just going to we're going to manage our duration you know now I think that would be like the extreme end of the end of the uh policy option set right i think the more more reasonable is basically trying to find these ways of monetizing
(1:25:20) assets um to uh plus up the TGA uh that can be used to fund buybacks um an even more clever idea might be to use the sovereign wealth fund as an offbalance sheet entity that can essentially leverage up and buy debt right as like a syncing fund i noticed that uh Scott Pacent took a picture with uh Seb Gorka uh in front of a portrait of of Alexander Hamilton the other day and these guys are not these guys like signaling they like doing these little hints and Hamilton's like famous innovation in American financial history
(1:25:52) was uh this idea of a syncing fund essentially how do you officially create an offbalance sheet entity that kind of helps relieve the government of of debt right and it came from Bank of England kind of related innovations in the 17th century but it's like okay we got too much debt we got essentially this you know got someone's got to eat these losses how do we kind of cleverly structure essentially essentially deep like printing money but using a series of financial engineering tricks where um it's not obvious how the money is
(1:26:19) printed right and where the effects are in the in on the government's balance sheet and mobile phone is a very useful vehicle for that right that you could uh that you could use um so I I just think people underestimate when push comes to shove when the government's when a when a when a powerful government is backed into a corner like they'll come up with they'll come up with [ __ ] man like everyone's like "Oh no no.
(1:26:41) " I think of during a 2008 financial crisis it was like this is the moment the system's going to collapse right like the dollar's dead because no one thought the Fed could just expand its balance sheet to like $9 trillion or whatever and you go "Oh well you know I didn't think that they could expand the balance sheet to $9 trillion.
(1:27:00) " Well they did it's like what makes you think the Fed the Fed's collective balance sheet or so wealth funds couldn't expand the balance sheet to 20 $30 trillion you go "Oh no they can't do that i don't know they can't." Or like in the 30s where we basically defaulted on the debt and everyone thought "Oh this is going to be like a run on the US dollar.
(1:27:17) " Ya it's like stock market didn't collapse like you know it was just there you go we're just flipping the script or 1971 like went off the gold standard yeah there was some there was stagflation like people like I think people underestimate the like she sheer inertia of power in the global system um and that there are lots of tricks up up the government sleeve do all sorts of accounting you know maneuvers there's like armies of lawyers inside the Fed and the Treasury whose like sole job is to like come up with this like like
(1:27:46) obscure [ __ ] and and then in a crisis it's like boom there you go and you're like oh I that that's not allowed like there are rules it's like there's no rules bro what the hell they want um uh and yeah so I just think you know when push comes to shove and Trump is of course this you know now is commander-in-chief that's willing to wield executive authority you know in a in a self uh confident way without you know self- constraint right um and there's an irony here i'm I'm in a hot take ramble but there's an irony
(1:28:20) also like you know I have mixed opinions of of of the policy approach and the implementation here um and and and one of the you know negative uh opinions is it's essentially central planning it's effectively you know Trump just deciding okay here's what the tariffs should be here's how I'm going to rewire the global trade system and I think they're doing it out of a strategic you know ambition and a way to challenge Chinese mercantalism and rewrite the global balance of of competitive advantage and so you kind of have to have executives
(1:28:51) do do you know national policy and in the national interest but I think that that quick quickly goes into this you know domain where a few smart people at the top can decide where credit should be allocated right like you know we need more robot factories so here's 10 $10 billion to build the robot factories and it in in the end right those just become grift machines where people close to the circles of power get preferred access to the money printer right this is the classic Bitcoin argument about QE and every other sort of distortions in the
(1:29:22) financial system is there's a you know there's an inherent pathology that that generates and just because it's your guys doing it doesn't mean it's like good right uh and so I think just there's this is the great tension I think between um national security strategic competition you know this tendency that to beat China we have to kind of emulate China is very dangerous cuz like we don't want to just emulate China like it's like we don't want to just become the America version of China light right with central planning credit you know
(1:29:56) capital controls financial repression you know uh preferred allocation of credit to like strategic industrial sectors effectively stateown enterprises that are arms length from the you know elite factions that run the country that seems like not a recipe for free markets innovation competition the thing that actually American you know at least uh at least rhetorically has positioned itself as the leader of so there's there is a danger here that like we just sort of go full we go full China but in like our our own way i hope we don't do that and
(1:30:30) I think Bitcoin is a natural counterbalance to that right ultimately right yeah no I'm pulling up the tweet because there's something that's confirming this these is already a headline yesterday breaking SpaceX Andrew and Palanteer teaming up to lead bid to build Trump's Golden Dome US missile defense system it's like those three companies are very uh tightly aligned with and that also is like okay you know if I have my um if I put on a certain a certain lens here of uh UAP informed speculation um you know I I it's it's my strong
(1:31:05) belief that uh the Star Wars program in the in the 80s was effectively a cover for you know ramping up these these UAP programs which were kind of in stasis in the 70s a bit after Carter came in and kind of purged the CIA and there was the stagflation [ __ ] a lot of financial insecurity and so I think whatever research programs were kind of you know put on some bit of stasis a bit and I think Reagan came in he's like "All right we're we're going to Annie up on this stuff.
(1:31:34) " And it by that point they had sort of semi-privatized so there was a lot of incentive to kind of turn the turn the machine back on i think the Star Wars uh initiative SDI was basically just a massive front to like ramp up these secret R&D programs um uh and of course that was to the great benefit of the dominant sort of technoindustrial defense system at the time which was dominated by you know Lheed um all these defense primes right north of Groman etc which have now kind of been on the Wayne uh as these ascendant defense primes AI uh infused sort of
(1:32:10) Silicon Valley originated uh Palanteer uh Anderil SpaceX kind of Elon Teal orbit companies are now in the driver's seat in in the kind of the political economy of the defense intelligence and industrial system uh and so the Golden Dome is kind of like to me essentially Star Wars 2.0 right but so if my assumption was that Star Wars 1.
(1:32:39) 0 was essentially a a front for you know rejiggering and uh you know catalyzing acceleration of the these more exotic programs i think Golden Done stuff would be the natural um similar modern counterpart and of course it's all framed as this uh US China competition um but yeah I mean but then you get to these you want to go real uh real rabbit hole here is like okay the thing that about the the NHI conversation that people don't want to take seriously is like the implications of it being true right everyone just wants to like just take that one little
(1:33:14) dip in the water and go "Okay yeah this universe is a big place there's there's probably other intelligent civilizations around hey maybe even you know that that uh that planet we just made observations of actually has life and maybe that means life is pretty common throughout the universe you accept that yeah maybe they're sending probes around to buzz you know hither and yawn but but if uh you know you have to like take take very seriously your view of geopolitics in light of what you might call exopolitics right right if geopolitics
(1:33:44) is the relations between uh human states human institutions on terapirma then exopolitics is the relation between human civilization and non-human civilizations um which again following that basic logic of you're on a basian tree and you just carry forward the inference from limb to limb from branch to branch then uh if you're at a point of the branch where you you know take on at least as plausible that there are non-human intelligences associated with some higher order some higher exopolitical you know local uh to our to
(1:34:20) our galactic neighborhood system of intelligence is there some regulative princip principle that governs the relationships between those entities and their technology and their you know activities something you might call a civilization um and we're embedded in it and we are just you know waking up to that fact right um to my mind there's like an inverse of the AI alignment problem now right so everyone in AI circles is obsessed with this idea that we need to align uh these AI civil these AI systems which could be constructing their own
(1:34:51) independent civilization you know alien to us we need to ensure that their civilization their their activities essentially their goals and norms are aligned with ours in some way right to ensure that our interests aren't uh you know supervened or abregated you know and there's failure modes of extinction risk uh if that alignment doesn't occur successfully so that's obviously the obsession of all the uh sort of AGI ASI pled uh autists in San Francisco but I think there's a more important uh alignment question which is alignment of
(1:35:24) human civilization in the light of the potential reality of uh a higher a higher order civilization uh or a higher order structure uh of norms that uh we we're dimly aware of and that you that become more relevant when you reach certain levels of technological capacity right where you're you're now essentially coming out of your little walled garden here and you're now going to be entering the cosmic club well there's certain rules of behavior you have to abide by um and uh you know if you don't abide by those
(1:35:55) I don't know what the what the constraint or sanction is uh so it to my mind it it it it's uh quite important that we understand what those norms are what those rules are what those constraints are and we sort of align ourselves and our AIS in such a way that we sort of um integrate as a cooperative member of that larger community so to speak right that's essentially you're you're we're auditioning whether we like it or not for membership in a cosmic club right and that cosmic club has certain certain norms right you you
(1:36:28) certain rules of decorum you could say and maybe human beings are not exactly the most um uh the most decorous uh species are we unc are we uncuth like you know we're like uh you know there's there's maybe bitcoiners right are a bit bit uncou but you know when we come to DC we come to a Bitcoin policy event right even Jack Mullers puts on a suit right so it's uh it's like hey you know it's a little bit uncomfortable for humans to kind of put on this uh this suit right uh uh of behavior but we're going to have to I
(1:36:58) think um and this is I think where the consciousness thing comes comes into play because I think it's not just a techn technological component to that um maturity It's a it's a consciousness element of maturity as well yeah no it again going back to the convergence of these three things it almost feels like we're playing through Ferm's paradox and getting to the great filter and is our ability like I I that's and this is a theory we've talked about on this show as it pertains to Bitcoin since the beginning which is this idea
(1:37:31) that to enter this cosmic u society as you described it like maybe one of the preconditions is that you have to prove that you can invent a money that operates in the way that Bitcoin does is open fair verifiable transparent if you will and then like you combine that with like AI and like to your point like I like to take the optimistic point of view which is like we're this convergence is happening it's very obvious and we're pushing it forward and when it it does ultimately converge at some point probably in the
(1:38:09) near future um within the decade um have we sort of threaded the needle of proving we can invent money like this we can create artificial intelligence like this combine them and we are advanced enough to enter the cosmic community if you will and get through the great filter before we kill ourselves yes and you know of course there's a lot there's a lot of stakes in uh how you reason through that type of question but there are these odd you know I I'm not one of these folks who just sees destiny or providence right but I but I notice
(1:38:47) anomalies right and it's just you know there's sort of an anomaly associated with the convergence of all these different um patterns and trends and just like historical contingencies like Trump just surviving you know by you know a hair right uh literally um and uh if I if I really want to stitch together kind of a bit of a a sci-fi plot that I find uh you know chuckle that I chuckle over is okay assume we're on the timeline here where Bitcoin becomes global money right in 2040 2050 what elements of human society are going to
(1:39:22) essentially have the most capital it's going to be Bitcoiners right and uh like what is the characteristic sort of cognitive phenotype of a Bitcoiner they're pretty much autistic they're obsessed with technology they probably read a lot of sci-fi and uh their mission in life was for Bitcoin to become global money so once they succeed at that and they're trillionaires and they're still very autistic and obsessed with technology what are they going to do they're likely going to you know use that money and they're sort of not necessarily loyal to
(1:39:51) and haven't been inculturated into the same systems of institutions that you know most most rich people have been so they might create new institutions right new think tanks new research and development uh consortia new media new sort of breakthrough breakthrough technology new media right new sort of civilizational uh primitives you could say uh or you know structures um orthogonal maybe interrelated with existing institutions so what cohort of the near future you know present path of humanity if we survive is likely going
(1:40:20) to create super breakthrough technologies likely going to be a bunch of you know extremely autistic extremely wealthy Bitcoiners and what if in the space of possible technologies something like you know time travel or you know time you know exploration is possible now we don't understand the nature of spaceime we think it's a high level emergent you know phenomenon as well as some other deeper more complicated structure but if there's something like you know that in the degrees of of of possibility for for technology obviously there's the
(1:40:52) famous grandfather paradox but there's there's ways around that depending on how you model the metaphysics and physics of time um and so just assume that it's possible right so then what element of human civilization would likely first create such technology would likely be weaponized autistic Bitcoiners who would then have an interest in ensuring that uh Bitcoin gets created right and so if you would maybe you can't send back beings but maybe you can send back kind of uh information to kind of self-replicate these sort of AI time
(1:41:20) probes that uh that that then want to you know collect information from history right to train future AI models right where maybe they're really saturated with capturing data so you need to go back in time to get more data um and then also you know maybe engage with their conscious AI time probes human beings to uh shepherd events in the path that they you know they see as you know their their desirable outcome and uh so they want to make sure bitco bitcoin exists they want to make sure satoshi gets the right you know
(1:41:48) inspiration at the right time um and so then it would also explain why you need to have these things these three things converge you need to have kind of the bitcoin thing happen needed to have uh it happen around the same time that the AGI thing happens and it kind of also needs to happen around the recognition that uh these time probes are real right so this would be like my like sci-fi sort of skitso integration of these three um now I think there's other things that that story doesn't explain there's lots of other weird weird stuff
(1:42:16) associated with UAPs and and uh human consciousness but I just find that's a funny it's a funny story that as I tell it it starts to become superficially plausible it's very compelling like you're right side I'm left side the left side of me has always been like there's something there like basically the answer is these are all like David Bailey's you know time probes and like robot uh robot uh synthetic biology you know artifacts that he's sending back in time just for the luls yeah it is a fun timeline are are you having fun i'm
(1:42:50) having an amazing amount of fun man like I'll tell you like I my life is just bizarre uh and so I have to kind of lean into the absurdity of it um cuz you know not too long ago I was doing the normal cyber China consulting bit and just sort of leaning in on my on the side into Bitcoin and then increasingly also into UAPs and and then when I decided to basically do the professional like jump in 100% into Bitcoin to help lead BPI as it kind of takes on this like critical and sort of you know very very um like
(1:43:17) uh time-sensitive mission right to effectively try to lock in uh uh you know uh strategic shifts in US Bitcoin policy so as basically at the exact same moment I I went in all on this like the UAP stuff started like crashing into me right like I don't seek it out really it's like I'll I'll say yes to any meeting i'll talk to anybody um but I don't really have I don't have like an agenda i was like I just I'm just curious i want to understand what's going on like I'm not selling a newsletter i don't have a podcast about
(1:43:42) it i'm just like "Okay I'll have I'll I'll meet with people and you know they tell me some stuff i'm like "Okay that's that's interesting uh is there anyone else I should talk to?" Oh okay yeah yeah i'll just keep doing that over and over until you talk to pretty much almost everyone you should um and now basically these things are all like in interle like I can't tell you can't name names but like I can't tell you the number of people very wealthy important people in various different fields that I either have a the first conversation
(1:44:10) is a bitcoin conversation and then and then it bounces back to UAPs or consciousness or people that I encounter on the UAP consciousness side who either have a background in Bitcoin or crypto they made a lot of money in it and now this is their thing and there's just like this you know bizarre kind of inter interweaving of these two very you know privacy distant issues and social graphs that are very much connected in some in some some weird way um and somehow I find myself sort of stumbling into the center of both of those you know social
(1:44:39) graphs and and policy issues um and there's people in Congress that I have conversations with literally about Bitcoin and about UAPs like members of Congress that are very interested in both in both things and like in positions i'm like what this this is like in a it's just an absurd state of affairs right to like I say that and it sounds you know like nonsense it's almost like it's almost like you manifested your own reality you know you're saying that's what I'm saying it's either it's like a Truman show except like you know it's the universe
(1:45:08) is projecting like the thoughts of like the bizarre uh you know timeline into into the you know into the path in front of me and it's like what's the maximally interesting thing for Matt Pines right to have happen it's like it's a massively narcissistic way to view reality though right it's like oh no the universe is is designing itself to like provide me the most like you know exact balance of like extreme stress cognitive you know uh stimulation stimulation and like potential personal fulfillment but like just just kind of the carrot is
(1:45:41) just in front of you right you never quite get get your hands on it it's uh it's wild man um well so yeah so I'm basically like lean I'm just like decided okay I'm just going to lean into it all right and just be like yep if this is the timeline we're in then going back to my my earlier kind of I could say highly speculative thesis is that these are the three hockey sticks they're all going to happen at the same time dc and most of the world has no idea you know it doesn't take either of those three seriously if they do they
(1:46:12) maybe take one of those three seriously let alone all three and I take all three very seriously and I was like okay act as if those three those those three things are happening and then try to re reason about how they're going to you know uh intersect with each other right um and then try to play that out in our present geopolitical and geoeconomic context i mean I'm like okay that's like I I stop there but I think it's we need new institutions we need new we kind of need to break break legacy modes of thinking i got talked to folks at these
(1:46:46) institutions um Atlantic Council Rand etc and I had these conversations with folks there and they all secretly like are very curious about these things right i think Bitcoin is becoming more normalized right they're kind of stepping dipping toes in the water there the AAP stuff for example Rand has like a secret mailing list where people send UAP related articles to each other um but they don't talk about it and there's no like no commentary is just like a secret little like distribution which is like for me fundamentally like a huge
(1:47:19) problem because here's Rand like their whole mission is like strategic foresight and analysis for the government and you have you know a bunch of PhDs in there who's like their whole job is to like look around quarters and yet they have this taboo this preference falsification is so strong that like institutionally it's incapable of taking this question seriously and so now I'm looking I was like oh [ __ ] It's like you know Bitcoiners have this realization like you know the people in charge really don't know what they're doing
(1:47:49) right like there's no there's no there's no secret man behind the curtain with the master plan who's like looking out you know four or five steps ahead right there's like literally it's all just humans you know doing normal human dumb [ __ ] uh and responding to their own narrow institutional incentives so I think we need just need to like okay there's like a blank space there like we sort of saw it with BPI is like nobody's actually just doing you know serious Bitcoin policy in DC bitcoin is a serious thing it's going to
(1:48:17) have implications for government policy at all these different levels just just do a think tank bit write some white papers host some host some events and then boom like David Zel and Grant McCarti just like did the thing and now it's a real serious thing and because there was just you know reality is malleable right in that in that way uh and I think uh we don't we we don't like uh reason out of domain right we don't like take that and just sort of apply in other these other areas but I think it's true it's true across the board i do it
(1:48:46) too i think people can manifest i think individuals like yourself David Grant exists to bring this change about they realize you can just do things you go do the things and things happen um but the one the one thing I want to wrap up on is like talking about this convergence and particularly now UAP um Bitcoin if we're running under the assumption that there is some sort of physics breakthrough that exists particularly in the realm of quantum mechanics it's been a big topic more recently in Bitcoin this idea of shot 56
(1:49:26) not being quantum resistant like Especially if there is some faction of the administration that recognizes that Bitcoin is going to be integral to the future of economic dominance in the world and they may have a trump card in the sense that they have access to uh uh information about physics and uh advances in that field that probably revolve around quantum mechanics like with that information like why would you be so uh aggressive with Bitcoin adoption knowing that it does potentially have this quantum sort of
(1:50:12) Achilles heel if something isn't uh added to the protocol in terms of quantum resistant address structures so is there anything at the intersection there that you've been thinking about yeah said "I've been I mean I wrote a whole novel about quantum computing and AI." Uh I mean I started writing it like nine or 10 years ago and it's all about basically a quantum computer that you know gets hooked up to the NSA's databases and does a recursive self-improvement um so I was like you know autistically obsessed with this for
(1:50:45) for a while even before I kind of started talking about Bitcoin um and then on the cyber side I did a lot related to um you know cyber threats and US China technology competition and I gained some information from very highly placed individuals that you know they indicated to me at least at the time this was within the last two years that um cryptographically relevant quantum computing was at least 20 years away maybe 10 at the outset but really essentially it's still a basic science project and this is the view
(1:51:18) from folks inside very well placed positions of the US government again such assessments would be classified and so I don't know if they gave me class information or if they're just feeding me [ __ ] um uh but uh the thing about cryptography that's very you have to always think about it adversarially right and think about the structures uh of incentives for cryp cryptographic um changes at at scale in society not just across Bitcoin right um and we have evidence right from the Stone Links that uh certain encryption schemes were uh
(1:51:54) were intentionally weakened um in you know very non-obvious ways the NSA has armies of mathematicians whose sole job is to come up with extremely hard to detect weaknesses in encryption protocols as well as you know engineer such weaknesses um in such protocols uh and so then you have to kind of um think about this adversarily right in the sense of um you know and and the government is not like a universal thing right like you can imagine certain folks at the White House level want to do Bitcoin and there's certain folks who don't like Bitcoin
(1:52:31) right um so from the perspective of people that don't like Bitcoin so you put like a simple matrix is like quantum computing uh is a threat in the near term or is not a threat in the near term and then the government likes Bitcoin or doesn't like Bitcoin right and you kind of have to reason each of those different quadrants uh and I can imagine scenarios where uh the government doesn't like Bitcoin and quantum computing is actually not a threat but where they have an incentive to make it seem like it's a threat to try to force
(1:52:58) the Bitcoin community and as well as lots of other people to basically change their encryption schema to say one of these lisbased methods which is relatively new has been tested at least by by Nest and people have poured over it but you know the lesson of cryptography is sometimes these these sorts of weaknesses can be very very hard to know unless you're like you know you 500 mathematicians working full-time um like the NSA does and so you have to have that inherent thing in the back of your mind that you know changing something
(1:53:28) especially as uh because of some uh novel threat that's sort of urgent right that's you know can be done to sort of stimulate action that maybe wouldn't otherwise happen um so that's a threat model right there's like there people I think you have to reason in different types of threat models there's the actual threat from quantum computing that could break um break uh at least shot V6 and then there's maybe a further uh breakthrough that would that that would threaten Grover uh for for for mining that's much I think that requires
(1:53:58) a much higher threshold in terms of uh uh functional uh logical cubits um I am I think it's it's a serious question it needs to be seriously explored but I think you need to if you're evaluating this rationally as a Bitcoiner you need to you need to lay out the matrix of scenarios here and and a a key you know scenario is uh a uh intentional amplification of the threat of quantum computing in order to accelerate the adoption of weak cryptography to undermine Bitcoin um and uh that has a historic that has historical evidence for it and you know
(1:54:33) in terms of a latent government uh certain government agencies have the intention and the possible capability to do it right so that's a scenario that has reasonable historical fact pattern uh you know agencies that are pushing such crypto uh cryptographic schemes and have the capabilities you know in theory to uh insert undetectable weaknesses into such schemes uh or to design such schemes in such a way that they're breakable only by them right with their own special techniques and computing power so that's a you know prefacially a
(1:55:01) pretty substantial scenario to put on the board you weigh that against the scenario of a uh continued progress in cryptographically relevant quantum computing that reaches a threshold where it can um present a threat to to uh public private you know key pairs that are um that are that are vulnerable um which is especially like the early coins in particular so I think we need to reason through it uh systematically as a community i think we need to do hard analysis i don't think it's something that you can just wave away
(1:55:33) either way um and I think you need to you know be rational about assessing evidence for each of those different possibilities um and also think about the the game theoretic dynamics associated with like different crises right cuz you know systems of rough consensus are very very stable right unless there's some some massive crisis or at least perception of a massive crisis that activates all the human participants in the network in a similar way right and then kind of you can get failure modes where um where like okay everyone has to have
(1:56:07) that this decision and this is like maybe a separate podcast of like you get you need to get Jameson Lop on you get all these guys that have their ideas about how this would play out right in in sequence of okay where along this this scenario in terms of continued say overt progress uh by the known labs Microsoft IBM Google etc and continued demonstration of increasing size of functional logical cubits they keep publishing papers that show they're getting to a threshold where maybe they could be within striking distance of SHA
(1:56:39) etc what do we think we're going to be doing the collective royal we as a development community uh as industry as miners etc how would we respond to that right there's different dips that have been proposed they have I think different trade-offs in terms of you know lots of technical details um and uh and then other unknown you know incentive uh dynamics associated with how such a a BIP would be introduced um what you do with the vulnerable coins right some some proposals you need to like you need to burn them right it's effectively a hard
(1:57:12) fork right um or do you put them into some sort of you know massive multisig right it's kind of this uh or just leave them vulnerable um I think it's it's a fascinating question to take seriously if only because I think it it acts as a prism to view some of the core policy and game theoretic questions around Bitcoin in light of Bitcoin's new new um new seriousness and new level that it's operating at right it's operating at the level where you can imagine like a new version of like the New York meeting taking place except
(1:57:43) it's at you know the National Security Council right um and and who's invited to that meeting right and and what's what decisions are getting made and how how and how effective will those decisions be you know among the minds of participants in their ability to implement those decisions right like different exchange operators okay that's US-based but what does that mean for you know Dubai what does it mean for Singapore right so there are it's a fascinating question right i I think um BPI may even design some tails of
(1:58:11) exercises to sort of just sort of play this out because I think even if you don't have a strong opinion on the quantum computing threat uh itself I think taking it seriously as a threat scenario is very useful to sort of start to tease out some of these new game theoretic and kind of policy incentive questions around Bitcoin in the rough consensus development model um and I think then you know they also informed the larger technical debate about oification right um it's beyond my technical competence to adjudicate but I
(1:58:43) think we are in this moment of sense that Bitcoin is uh you know I think some developers feel like if there's no changes that happen nowish no changes will happen unless there's this crisis moment but then you can imagine stands like oh if we're rolling out BIP you know the I think it's was it BIP 39 I forget the one that's qu the quantum resistant one 385 385 uh then uh you know what what we should do OBCTV or something right um you know things things like that it's better to just discuss them out in the open now um as a broader community and
(1:59:18) uh understand where the corner cases are um and what people's maybe latent attitudes are cuz sometimes people will think something but they don't want to say it um for whatever reason cuz there's an internal social culture in different uh communities sort of sub communities inside Bitcoin um where it's like if you say if you say anything you're sort of speaking it into existence so don't say the thing um you're manifesting the wrong thing uh I don't know man it's it's a fascinating I think quantum the other thing I'll say
(1:59:50) about quantum is it it is also on the top of mind of policy makers inside DC um it's one of the top questions gets asked actually about like stable coins and and bitcoin in general is like what's your plan for quantum right uh like Howard Lutnick is going around that's all he's talking about you know among other things um and now I suspect it's basically because he took the job at Commerce and the first thing they gave him was a briefing by NIST on on the quantum stuff um cuz it's like their whole thing and they're really trying to
(2:00:19) get you know the leadership to basically amplify it and kind of scare corporate America into adopting postquantum you know cryptographic schemes which is they know is going to be a multi-year process you know update firmware embed it in all these different corporate systems it's very very complicated very expensive to you know swap out encryption um that's built into a lot of you know complicated software stacks so as a bureaucratic matter they wanted to elevate it to the principal and get him scared right be like "China's almost
(2:00:49) there sir like if we don't get it like they're going to get it and then we have to ensure that you know our system isn't bricked by China." Um which could be could be a real threat um but it's also a very you know it's exactly the same thing you would do if you're like you know we would like to have different encryption um out there so yeah I think I think I don't know if it's going to be a spillover though from the from the UAP stuff to be honest because I think the the physics there is more disruptive in other ways um I think
(2:01:22) the physics there is uh you know I go back to the earlier comment I had about how you know we we we we figured out the physics of the atom and we created nuclear weapons so whatever the next thing that we figure out about the physics of say spacetime or the you know additional um additional field content associated with uh maybe a higher order symmetry group that is more fundamental than the symmetries associated with the standard model maybe there's some structure that uh unifies uh these different um uh scales of of nature and
(2:01:58) then once we understand that structure we understand maybe there are additional fields uh additional forces additional degrees of freedom that you can exploit um they maybe have different energy scales associated with them and might unlock huge amounts of energy and once you do that I mean the lesson was going from chemical propulsion or chemical uh energy sources to atomic energy sources was orders of magnitude increase so I don't know my expectation be the next thing would be orders of magnitude increase further um and it's not clear
(2:02:25) to me what you know the the uh proliferation constraint on that would be like there's a proliferation constraint around nuclear weapons you have to have centrifuges you got to have you know uranium ore you got to have lots of physicists and scientists you know plutonium uh pits and triggers and all sorts of stuff um if it turns out that maybe you just need something some other maybe uh highly uh uh maybe just very strong magnetic field that's being uh uh amplified um at a very high frequency uh in a certain metamaterial in a certain pattern you
(2:03:01) get a anomalous effect maybe there's other other things to do with uh you know nutrinos or things uh in the standard model that all of a sudden you can now use as a source of technology communication or weapon that's I don't know i'm I'm more worried about pulling the black ball out of that out of that jar and then it would also kind of explain the secrecy to be honest it's like hey like there's something here that if if it really gets out you know anyone with a certain degree of competence could just you know wipe us all out uh would
(2:03:42) not be good would not be good would not want that to get proliferated until we become a bit more mature as a species i mean this kind of goes to Peter Teal's whole bit which is we're either if you survive you know this technological kind of acceleration um or exponential quote post singularity moment you either become uh like an like an angel like an angelic species that's sort of uh fully altruistic where no member of that society um even has like the is it even able to form like the intention to destroy right other
(2:04:17) elements of society the universe they become perfectly altruistic perfectly beneficent otherminded cooperative right kind of you know the higher the the all all the harmonic angels are singing in the perfect choir right in the cosmic order and they would just be no way to to um try to weaponize their technology so either become that like you become angels or you become demons become a totalitarian lockdown sort of Borg society that's so controlled that uh you know a single point of control can unilaterally enforce uh you know
(2:04:49) counterp proliferation of such destructive technologies and um and that might you know be be like failure modes is like you either elevate your consciousness where you just kind of you just you just don't be dicks anymore and like the risk of using this technology poorly just kind of goes away because you realize is just not cool to do and that's going to become it becomes inbuilt to your nature as a being or you uh become subservient to some AI totalitarian Borg and uh you know it's bad yeah that was the that was the crux
(2:05:22) of his lecture series is Antichrist vers Armageddon and yeah but actually I actually don't agree with it necessarily because I actually think both are different versions of the same thing right like they're just they're just different ways of essentially describing what amounts to uh subumption of the individual to some aggregate collective um where like just depends on where the where the uh where the uh the uh the force of constraint is being applied right it's essentially if you had the force of constraint built into your
(2:05:49) personality like a neuralink chip that made everyone in society perfectly cooperative and benevolent and there was no urge for rage or doing having wrong think right you you know pressing the bad button that kills everybody everybody that just is a you know there's a little chip in your brain that stops you from pressing the bad button how is that different than just like being subs subsumed to some AI borg cuz as soon as you have that chip in your head that can like selectively you know constrain you know universally and with
(2:06:17) perfect uh you know fidelity uh beliefs and decisions by any member of society you know it's kind of the same thing as being an AI totalitarian Borg or this angelic harmonic structure so I think there's like that can't be the way this this works i think that think you know like the bit is consciousness this is why like the the the uh the relief valve is recognizing that there is a certain um uh hard reality to um individual consciousness but it's not a like a monad right you aren't like you aren't just in an individual consciousness
(2:06:53) right you also are in a degree of uh uh structure relations and and interdependence with other individual nexuses of consciousness so there's a mutual dependence but you're you're an aggregate you're not a unity and I think being able to have a stable aggregate that doesn't collapse into like a totalitarian unity is kind of the whole bit um which is kind of the whole I don't know like metaphorical point of bitcoin is like how do you have a collect how do you have consensus that is in a unity right how do you have you
(2:07:25) know essentially individuals making individual decisions that are in the rational self-interest that are able to secure their individual you know property rights essentially um in a sphere of freedom uh but participate in a essentially a collective project that has a higher order that has a structure that's endur that's enduring and stable like okay that's kind of the that's like the metaphor that I think we want to try to apply at all scales it's like say same say with AI right do you want to have it all collapse into like the god
(2:07:51) AI where everyone basically just has to pay tithe to Elon or or uh or Sam and he just controls society or do we have decentralized AI right do we have intelligence in our pockets that's tuned to us protected by us you know that we control our data that we can build and participate in the economy with um and maybe it's the whole maybe if I really apply that to UAPs right is like you know some some folks see UAPs as these angelic creatures you know some see that as demonic um those are like our religious labels um but there's clearly
(2:08:24) like a a certain uh variation in the phenomenology associated with these patterns of interaction or engagement that we interpret as benign or hostile or or or beneficial um and maybe there is like a difference at that scale in terms of oh well there's a version there's a mode of engagement interaction that's kind of this this uh this this right balance between individuation and like collective uh higher order right and there's there's never like the whole point is to find that balance so that you don't collapse you know society or
(2:08:55) become you know subject to some hegemonic hive mind borg um and that seems like the project right it's like okay that's like that's the that's that's the path we that's the that's the thread we have to put through the needle here um so that's that's my that's my skitso wrap-up well do we even have to thread that needle or do we just There's yin and a yang and there's always going to be these benign neutral positive and negative forces that are just interplaying and weaving in and out of each other yeah or or or an asteroid just comes out of you
(2:09:32) know our blind spot and wipes us out and you know there you go maybe that would universe doesn't owe you anything bro you know the great meteor death please come put us out of our misery of of thinking of all these complex problems they're fun though and it's always fun chatting about them with you quick correction it's bit 360 not bit 385 for the quantum resistant hash um this is always fun uh I'm looking forward to BPI's event in June yes exactly so so phase one in the bit is to uh lock in pro Bitcoin policy in the US
(2:10:11) and so we're going heavy in the paint on that and so we're putting on our annual flagship event in Washington DC June 25th uh Bitcoin policy summit sign up um uh request a ticket it will be you know not going to be bragging but I think it's going to be a legit legit thing i think people people are going to be excited about it um so yeah uh be on the lookout for more more stuff coming out of BPI on that front really want to um drive the agenda inside DC on Bitcoin and carry the momentum on these things the street Bitcoin reserve obviously
(2:10:44) ideas around Bit bonds but a whole swath of issues relating to human rights the ability to use Bitcoin um without government censorship uh without um you know prosecuting uh you know developers of open source software uh you know pushing Bitcoin as both a uh global neutral reserve asset but also as a peer-to-peer global settlement system um that's our core core mission and see how that interfaces now with these questions about AI mining and energy the good thing about Bitcoin is like it's not one thing it's like 7,000 different
(2:11:15) things and so uh you know keeps keeps us busy and entertained inside DC and so really proud of the work that BPI uh is doing the team that we've now assembled and we're really excited to open up this partnership uh with PubKy in DC essentially a Bitcoin embassy uh hopefully over the summer uh we'll be uh we'll be uh opening that up yeah having uh events happy hours essentially a cultural node downtown uh for Bitcoiners uh to you know uh to to congregate uh a little bit of a of a shelling point um hopefully uh in in in progress there so
(2:11:52) yeah really really excited man like this year is just it's accelerating um and it's fun to kind of you know help help steer what uh Bitcoin policy might look like in the next few years it really is get your suits pressed if you're going to DC yeah you got to clean up you know shave put on your orange tie get a good orange tie okay don't go to Macy's and buy one off the rack you got to got to Hermes spend a little dollar spend a little money get a get a good orange tie okay yeah buy a ticket you know it's like okay go to Vegas you're going to
(2:12:25) waste that money on slot machines and [ __ ] you know save that money buy a ticket to the Bitcoin Policy Summit do it do it don't be lame matthew thank you for indulging me in my my questions about all these different topics you're very well verssed on all them so I really appreciate your time and uh your relative expertise i really don't know what I'm talking about but I'll say I think you don't i'll say I'll I'll say words i'm just the LLM just autocompleting whatever pops into the prefrontal cortex here don't be humble okay you know what you
(2:13:00) know what you're talking about yeah you are whatever peace and love freaks see you freaks thank you for listening to the show i hope you liked it if you did like it please make sure you subscribe rate review the show it helps us out a lot and also if you like these conversations I've come to realize that many people listen to the podcast they don't know we have another sort of layer of this media company we have the newsletter the Bitcoin brief go to tftc.
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