It's hard out here for a skeptic. Encouraging caution and questioning the ability of our central bankers to micromanage a global economy as the world rides on the back of a raging bull market is often met with snarky criticism. As someone who has been drawn to Bitcoin and the potential for sound monetary policy in the digital age and has dedicated an embarrassing amount of time writing about the subject after becoming worried about the state of the global financial system, I often have to ask myself, "Am I just fucking crazy? Have I been duped by a bunch of kooks hell-bent on winning an argument?"
These burning questions linger for a few moments and a sense of existential dread starts to take over as I begin to think of a future as a disgraced newsletter peddler who is known for having spread crackpot theories about a funny Internet cash system with a predetermined supply of tokens for years on end. How many people did I mislead? How much money was lost over time? No one will ever truly know. Uncle Marty is relegated to "that crazy Bitcoin guy who was really wrong" status for eternity.
As my chest tightens and visions of my wife and future kids leaving me for some Modern Monetary Theory Chad begin to flash through my head, I tab over to tweetdeck.twitter.com and see something like this:
I see economists coming out and alluding to the fact that the Cantillon effectmay, in fact, exist.
I notice that one of the world's "strongest economies" is experiencing a rapid decline in family formation and birth rate because people cannot afford to have kids anymore. Not even after insane amounts of monetary stimulus over the course of decades.
I see the Fed reversing course again, having to cut rates again only three and a half years into a tightening period that is preceded by seven years of the most aggressive monetary expansion the world has ever seen. Completely missing the projected rate hikes set in previous years.
Then I take a very deep breath. The mirage of that MMT Chad in my head dissolves as I find comfort in the fact that it would be totally insane to not be skeptical of these academics and their monetary experiments that seem to have gone terribly awry. Things may seem good on paper when looking at certain KPIs like GDP, unemployment, and CPI. But when you take a closer look, you come to find that the Oracles are blind and the KPIs don't accurately reflect the health of the society they're supposed to be measuring.
Out on instrumentals at the moment.