Joe Carlasare shares his journey from skepticism to Bitcoin advocacy, highlighting its revolutionary potential to reshape financial systems and legal paradigms.
This episode of Coin Stories features Joe Carlasare, a commercial litigator and Bitcoin advocate who shares his journey from initial skepticism to active investment in Bitcoin. Carlasare highlights Bitcoin's potential as an alternative global monetary system, emphasizing its borderless, custody-irrelevant nature. His legal work in Bitcoin mining and exchanges provides insights into the challenges of integrating Bitcoin with traditional legal concepts. He discusses regulatory issues, the need for clear case law, and the future use of Bitcoin as collateral. Carlasare also addresses macroeconomic concerns, noting the relative stability of the US dollar and the slow, rather than sudden, challenges to its dominance.
Joe Carlasare offers a nuanced perspective on Bitcoin, highlighting its potential to revolutionize financial systems and redefine economic paradigms. His legal expertise underscores the regulatory challenges ahead, while his journey from skepticism to advocacy illustrates the importance of re-evaluating beliefs and embracing new technologies. Carlasare's confidence in the resilience of the American system and human adaptability fosters cautious optimism about Bitcoin's future. Despite the complexities and legal hurdles, he envisions a path toward an integrated and innovative financial ecosystem with Bitcoin at its core.
00:00 Bitcoin origin story
2:32 What was your aha Bitcoin moment?
4:38 Bitdeer Technologies Group
5:36 Bitcoin is not digital property
7:06 Legal issues surrounding Bitcoin
9:55 Bitcoin regulations
12:52 10 year Treasury yield
18:37 Suitable alternative to US Dollar
23:10 Macroeconomics outlook
28:31 Bitcoin 2024
29:00 Speed Bitcoin Lightning Wallet
29:20 Coinkite Coldcard Wallet
29:42 The Bitcoin Way
30:16 Recession will be painful
34:55 US debt
36:02 Bullish on Bitcoin
37:43 Bitcoin's potential
42:05 Bitcoin price
47:54 Bitcoin self-custody
50:50 Protecting your Bitcoin
59:06 Bitcoin in the election
1:02:19 Fountain App
(00:01) [Music] here with me this week is Joe kosari he is a commercial litigator who supports Bitcoin a lot of his cases focus on bitcoin but he's a longtime Market uh active investor so I want to talk a lot about not just Bitcoin but also what's happening with the economy I love following your tweets Joe uh really interesting because sometimes you're the contrarian in the community so thanks so much for joining me on the show no it's a pleasure and thank you for having me on I really enjoy your podcast and uh
(00:32) you bring in a lot of voices and let everybody have their time to make their case so that's what we're going to do thank you well I'm here to learn um I I know I've got a lot to learn from you so let's start though with how did you find Bitcoin why are you so passionate about it and focus your your legal career on so many cases in this industry yeah so I've been involved roughly since 2015 I originally had some clients and Friends approach me about it and as most people do you know you brush it off and say oh
(00:57) that's just magic internet money it's not going to go anywhere it's just a joke a bubble a scam whatever um but as I approach things if you follow me or listen to my takes is like I try to tear things apart right I try to attack it as much as I can and the frustrating thing I got originally when I first approached Bitcoin is I couldn't uh undermine it from a technological perspective it was way beyond my head I had to study and get up to speed from an economic perspective being a longtime student
(01:22) markets right I I felt it served a need that was not met um so as I I continue to unpack and say why all the reasons list all the reasons why this can't work um I invariably was led to a conclusion wait a second there are some reasons why it could work um and because of those reasons why it could work from a technological perspective from an economic and financial perspective I just started being drawn to it and as most people do right you kind of dip your toe in you kind of experiment with it and you kind of have to hold it up
(01:48) against the Legacy system and the way I keep thinking about Bitcoin uh is I I don't I don't I don't try to force it or pigeon hole it into the existing system I look at it as a totally separate apart system obviously it's affected from a price standpoint and that's important for investors allocating Capital but for me it really is an alternative monetary system it can something it can be something that serves as the basis foundation for a global monetary alternative and because of that uh
(02:14) because of my slow sort of exposure from both clients and friends and and then playing with it myself I just said this this thing has real legs it can go far and nobody knows how far it can go and I still think it's early days because we're still trying to Grapple with what is what is this thing what it can what can it be and we haven't scratched the surface yet do you recall from your journey learning about Bitcoin any type of aha moment that you had where you pivoted from being a skeptic to having
(02:41) this conviction absolutely so the the AA moment for me and this is why I strongly encourage anybody listening to this who doesn't have Bitcoin exposure or even people that have had exposure for years to to experiment with is send a transaction right send an on transac transaction I don't care if it's 20 30 $40 fee it doesn't matter just experiment with it because to me when I when I took that and sent it to an on uh you know onchain transaction sent it to my own wallet I was experimenting in the
(03:08) early days with even like paper wallets right um most most bitcoiners I approach today um they would never do that right for security reasons but when I was doing this and I was saying this is just like sending an email no one can stop this transaction it is incredible it can flow across the world borders are irrelevant custody is PR irrelevant possession is relevant all these issues you know you may have heard like the old adage about how possession is 9/10 LW you can't ever really possess Bitcoin that's the thing that's amazing about it
(03:33) and I've argued this in front of judges when you think about it what you hold is a private key you hold a password to move something on chain for a distributed Ledger and that ledger is the same on my node as it is for your node as it is for the other 10,000 nodes roughly across the planet that's not really a a POS a possessory asset it's not something that I can really hold all I can do is I can send a message effectively like an email to the network to communicate that value so for me me that was the aha moment right you're
(04:02) you're transcending traditional Notions of what it means to possess an asset you're transcending traditional Notions of what it means to even transfer an asset um you know that that really clicked for me the fact that this is really different than everything else we have um The Ledger based money system we current currently have the euro dollar system which I've you know did a lot of study and even going back to college I'm like this is a lot closer to that um obviously there credit issues but this
(04:28) is a lot closer to that than what what most people think of when they think of Bitcoin which is you know they think of it more like the Legacy system where it's just a bunch of IUS transferring back and forth which is not the case coin stories is brought to you by bit Deere where the power of Bitcoin mining is at your fingertips as a publicly traded leader bit deer's Global reach and scale means they're everywhere you need them to be ensuring you're part of the thriving Bitcoin economy bit deer is
(04:52) not just mining they are industry pioneers and biter stands alone as the only vertically integrated technology focused Bitcoin mining company what does that mean well they're not just deploying but developing the latest tech to make Bitcoin mining more efficient and effective and with the industry's most experienced leadership team Innovation is in their DNA and it shows a quarter of their Workforce is dedicated to research and development pushing the boundaries of what's possible in Bitcoin mining now they're
(05:20) leveraging years of expertise in Data Center and Cloud management into high performance Computing through a recently announced partnership with Nvidia join deer in reshaping the world of Bitcoin mining learn more at bit deer.com and explore how they are pioneering the future today well a lot of people look at Bitcoin as digital property um do you see it that way too because when you say you can't really possess it I mean the thing that I think about is like bare instrument you know you you actually own it yeah I mean you you own you own it be
(05:52) based on the fact that you can exercise and I've argue this in court you can exercise your dominion and control over it by virtue of the private key but the analogy I've always explained it to to folks um including judges is imagine I have a copy of the private key for a Bitcoin onchain and I copy it and then I hand it to you and then I hand it to my buddy Preston right who owns the Bitcoin is it Joe is it Natalie is it Preston we all have the same private key right we all have the same ability to exercise
(06:22) dominion and control over that ledger entry okay so from a legal standpoint you know possessions really important for the law where does the Bitcoin reside well the answer is it doesn't reside anywhere and it also resides everywhere it's everywhere in the world right at any given point because there's no borders so that that really pushes the boundaries of like conceptually what our mind has to deal with because we always think about well if the bank holds my money the money is at the bank right that's not really how the system
(06:49) works you know that right because of fractional Reserve banking um but but that's just it's a easier mental framework to say yes the bank is in possession of something which is really just an IOU for Joe that's different for the private key and private key transcends that U because it's really just a password so interesting I don't know why I just thought of this but back in 2016 I was an investigative reporter and I covered of all things a a lottery dispute story uh someone claimed to have
(07:18) purchased the lottery ticket but someone else turned it in and there was a question of who got the lottery winnings but it was the person who turned it in it wasn't the person who paid for it it was whoever held that bare instrument of the ticket and I don't again I don't know why I thought of that but but it's really interesting to dig into that side of Bitcoin so I'm assuming there are more and more cases that are coming up can you talk a little bit about the types of legal issues that I'm assuming
(07:44) this industry is going to grow more but what are you saying of course I mean so a lot of the cases I have involve just straight commercial disputes within the mining space right a lot of lot of times miners are to move fast and break things they're trying to get uh into the market they're scrambling to get deals done they're doing million dooll or eight fig deals with a handshake right which causes all sorts of problems in litigation but um I have a lot of fascinating ones that sort of inside those cases where you've got disputes as
(08:12) to possessory rights of Bitcoin right if I take your Miners and I'm mining on your behalf providing hosting Services who does that Bitcoin belong to who's in control of that wallet you know how it's How is it utilized uh those those are coming up more and more and there are real cases I'm working on with issues about possession right because you know if you're backing up private keys and you're doing it depending on the way you're putting it together you know putting legal Frameworks in place that
(08:39) are enforcable and doing it particularly with multiple jurisdictional analysis where there's different property rights laws or some cases very few property rights case law a precedent that causes a host of problems um you know the law is all about trying to figure out you know different levels of of risk and exposure and trying to figure out how to mitigate against those and from my standpoint like when when I when you when you are advising a client and you have to transcend sort of well we think this is how a court will interpret it
(09:09) but we're not sure that's a that's a big risk for that person especially if they're putting serious Capital to use um so you know I have a lot of disputes with uh exchanges right where individuals to take the position you're holding my Bitcoin right you are possessing my my hard-earned value that I've I've entrusted with you and I've kept it with a in exchange The Exchange will take a position no that's not right you know we you've you've basically uh you're we're absolved of all liability
(09:35) we don't have any you know exposure um we have an IOU but you know it's not really an IOU we can decide when when not to hyp re hypothecate your Bitcoin a lot of issues like that which I think are going to be problematic for people and exchanges in the future if we don't try to you know try to get some sort of clear case law on precedent to guide people well that's that's interesting so do you see us moving forward creating more of a framework and and can you give us your take on the regulatory
(10:03) environment because I mean when you zoom out big picture it seems like Bitcoin has the most Clarity and it is the one that is institutional grade maybe even um you know Reserve asset grade for for nation states although we're not moving in that direction quite as much as I wish we were yet but in terms of just the the the the rule of law and how Bitcoin will fit in what what needs to be done okay so with Bitcoin in particular I think the biggest challenge moving forward uh from a regulatory standpoint is going to be issues related
(10:38) to custody and issues related related to lending both of those are really core and you have a lot of guests that come on they talk about how Bitcoin is going to cannibalize the bond market and Bitcoin is going to uh you know eat the financial system and and I agree with that I think it will increasingly embed itself into the financial system but you have to remember the heart of the financial system is one where there's collateral Lending and credit creation right and right now the rules and regulations about Bank custody um we saw
(11:06) that with the try attempted repeal of Sab 121 and the rules about lending activities and lending and giving credit effectively on bitcoin those are opaque right there's there's there's some guidance as to what can and can't be done um there's issues with auditing like you know issues with bigger players concerned about well if we're writing loans based on on bitcoin's value and Bitcoin obviously volatile asset what does that mean for our balance sheet our regulator is going to scrutinize us
(11:33) unfairly because it's not the preferred asset of treasuries that we're holding all of those issues need to be carved out like I said if Bitcoin has is going to become the heart of the Global Financial system or at least not even the heart but but a bigger player right it's going to have some lending potential some pristine collateral qualities that people really wanted to have you need to make that clear for the bigger players that are issuing credit on top of Bitcoin um which you know they they needs to be a lot of lot of uh of
(12:01) clarity on there's no way they're going to do it without you know knowing that they're not going to face regulatory scrutiny the other regulatory issues which I think are adjacent to bitcoin but are important is this issue with how do you treat stable coins how do you treat other digital assets what is their legal quality um what will mean to be able to be a regul uh regulated broker dealer or Clearing House in those spaces and although that's not Bitcoin right we all know that the altcoin market has
(12:27) this Rel symbiotic relationship with Bitcoin where it affects its price it's a main volatility uh uh cause of volatility in the Bitcoin Market altcoins which are extremely volatile all of that has to get sorted out I think for Bitcoin because regardless of what I you and I think about how it's different from all the rest of the junk in crypto um people don't see it that way the mainstream public cannot distinguish between these two things at least now yeah um you brought up stable coins and you had a very tongue and
(12:56) cheek tweet in the last day or so about former speaker Paul Ryan and not just him but others who are saying that this could actually help solve our debt crisis and and they provide this ongoing demand for treasuries uh can you share your take on that sure so the reason why people make this argument they they ultimately say that well we need a source of Treasury buying okay which is true right there needs to be a new marginal buyer to come to the table the newest marginal buyer for the last several years for treasuries uh has
(13:29) actually not been foreigners it's been Americans Americans have been loading up on treasuries at higher rates um particularly older folks who have built a really nice Nest Egg they can go get their 5% risk-free from the government quote unquote risk-free right and and that's been a marginal buyer um you know the big whales in the treasury space have not been buying um some of the foreign countries that are historic buyers they have not been buying as much some of the pensions and obviously one of the biggest whales of them all the
(13:57) Federal Reserve they've been doing QT they haven't been actually expanding their balance sheet with respect to the treasury market so those big whales are sort of not yet feasting on the market uh for whatever reason there's a lot of reasons um but the point is like let's get a new marginal buyer and let's make it the stable coin Market well if you look at Global debt right Global debt levels are rising exponentially I mean that's well documented you've had many guests on explain that to your viewers
(14:22) so look listen to Lyn alden's uh do listen to any of her work or any of her pieces she'll explain you know the CBO the Congressional budget office own projections about debt growth are explosive right right now you're running annually $1.5 trillion approximately of a deficit meaning that we're spending 1.
(14:41) 5 trillion more than we're actually taking in okay so right now the entire GL Global stable coin Market let's just Round Up say it's you know one 158 billion closer to two 200 billion let's just say it grows by 10x over the next 5 years you're not going to have enough additional marginal buying to cover one year one year of the deficit right and that market as it continues to expand yes it is another marginal buyer but it's not going to reach the levels to solve a debt crisis okay um now I in particular think this debt can can be
(15:13) kicked down the road many many years for a variety of reasons we can get into if you want to talk about that but the point is like just look at debt levels look at you know the am amazing amount of Treasury issu that's on its way and even you know massive expansions of the stable coin Market they're not going to they're not going to solve that problem it may be the best way to put it I think would be there may be some additional buying pressure to service a stable coin Market if there is legislation but it
(15:38) won't solve the problem of the debt well I mean and just because there is demand for our debt inherently doesn't solve the debt because that means we're issuing more debt right that's that's what I was but you have to remember right in in a game that we play right with this financial uh um this this financial system that we currently have the game we're playing right is a relative one our position in the world is relative to every other country which is significantly over indebted look at
(16:09) Global debt G to GDP right other countries are a wash in debt and anybody listening to this okay I highly recommend you go if you haven't had him on already you should have him on I would recommend you get Brent Johnson on San dieago capital of the dollar milkshake has he been on your your podcast at all no but I've had the chance to to meet him and talk to him in person and he he's he's really really great yeah he's fantastic and he his work is really good um I'm not going to be able to add anything to really what
(16:35) he's talking about in terms of the the milkshake Theory but I'll just tell you my conceptual framework of it when you're thinking about a relative system and you're thinking about what is the US's comparative advantage versus everyone else and you're talking about debt in particular one fact he likes to talk about which I think is really core is that as much as people want to bemoan the US debt problem you know 30 odd trillion dollars worth of debt there's almost double that some estimates is are
(16:58) that it's more than double of dollar-based debt outside the United States okay other countries that owe obligations in dollar terms outside the United States and guess what the difference is between those countries and the United States they don't have access to a money printer right so they can't service or massage or tampen down volatility with the money printer like we can because they can't print dollars what they can print is Yen Yuan real other currencies and those currencies are going to be paying dollars which is
(17:29) causing demand for dollars so this is why you constantly see this thing about well the the dollar is going to hyperinflate the dollar is going to fall apart well they've printed trillions of dollars they've expanded and spent all sorts of money and the dollar is higher today than it was 10 years ago right qe1 QE2 all the all the PPP loans all the tarp all the spending and the Dollar on a relative basis versus other Fiat currencies is higher and the one other thing that I think here Bitcoin is talk about all the time is well you know it's
(17:58) just the cleanest dirty shirt it's just depreciating against other Fiat the thing you remember though is that in foreigners in certain countries okay if they're holding dollars it's not just that their dollars their US Dollars have increased in value versus the native currency their US Dollars actually buy more goods and services this year than they did last year and this is really important for people to to just conceptualize right the dollar if they were holding it in foreign countries they actually increased their purchasing
(18:27) power just by holding US dollars so when Brent talks about this dollar milkshake Theory and sucking liquidity from the rest of the world to the de to the benefit of the dollar that's what he's talking about well obviously there's still most transactions are conducted in the dollar most debt as you just said is denominated in in in ed in the dollar um but over the long run I mean if you think about 100e Cycles we are the trajectory is shifting a bit right um and we are seeing maybe the US dollar remain as the global Reserve currency
(18:59) but we are shifting away from it as the reserve asset as as central banks start to look at other options as well the Petra dollar agreement just ended so I mean do you sh do you do you feel that over the next hundred years the US dollar will be the the king currency as well as Reserve asset or what do you think about that no I mean 100 years is a very long time right I I I I think it's a I think it's risky to look out more than 10 years to be quite honest because things can change so quickly um but I I think the best best approach
(19:30) rather than getting tied into certain hypotheses or certain biases right because I have biases you have biases everybody has a bias right my bias is pro Bitcoin like I'm very very passionate about Bitcoin but one of the things I try to control my bias is try to say what would be the conditions with which I think dollar hegemony would be really challenged one of the one of the conditions that would be required is there to be a suitable alternative there has to be a suitable alternative that people are flocking to and doing huge
(19:58) amount of economic transactions in denominating huge amounts of debt in which is even more important than the actual settlement of the transaction it's what are you pegging it to um and you don't see the conditions to that you see to your point an erosion right you see a shift you could say the trend is not the Dollar's friend something like that I mean that's that's probably a fair and balanced way of putting it um but you know these things take a long time to play out um anybody who thinks
(20:26) that you know within the next 10 years you know suddenly the dollar is just going to evaporate and hyperinflate and things are going to fall apart I my response is maybe right but I'm not going to cloud my bias with you know certainty right I'm not going to say I know for certain that this thing can't go on for another 20 30 years and depending on you know what age you're at I remember you know uh coming of age in the 90s and I remember reading articles about the downfall of the dollar the dollar is falling apart I read that in
(20:56) in grade school um there were there's there's you know you can go back and search there's Newsweek and uh business week and various Publications about how the dollar is falling apart the US has lost its manufacturing based we're too over indebted all the stuff we talk about right now you know every day on Twitter where people ban you know who's going to buy all the treasuries I heard that in the 90s okay when when I was you know talking to my dad and trying to get understand this stuff um so this stuff
(21:22) can take a long time and can it happen very quickly sure right but nobody can tell you with certainty because we don't have access to the mind of God like when that's going to happen um so that's my big point like I just I think these things they're macro glacial movements and they take forever yeah at least they seem to take forever no you're right and a 100 years is a long time I I was watching the news coverage the other week about the anniversary of D-Day and I'm like I can't believe that happened
(21:48) less than a hundred years ago it's think of how much history and how much change and I I just I mean that's multiple spanning multiple generations and it's not not even a hundred years ago um well and and we live in a world right where technology is moving so exponentially I mean the shift in 10 years in technology has been extreme right like like you know I remember days with before cell phones still uh kids today I think they they they'll never have that right uh same thing with social media same thing
(22:17) with being able to watch any movie you want or get any fact you want or have chat GPT write any article you want for you um those things are like huge and they're changing but they're held up against the Legacy system the world I live in the courts and the system of law it moves at a snails pace right I was I'll just tell you in Cook County Illinois okay up until just a couple years ago when we were drafting court orders after a court appearance we were using carbon paper Okay literally like the tracing paper to write out orders
(22:49) this is what the judge is saying and you couldn't you couldn't even read the handwriting that's how backwards the system is because they had signed a 50-year contract with carbon paper to get you know the orders made right and and the the system of government is built to be resistant to change and it's running up against the system of Technology that's changing more than any of us can can keep up with I ran into some of that when I was a reporter because when I would try to go get you know court cases legal documents
(23:16) sometimes it very very challenging I'm like why isn't this all digital uh but you're right okay let's talk about how things move at such a glacial pace and you mentioned earlier we we can kick the can down the road for a long time I I find that interesting because um also related to some of the things you you tweet on tweet about I feel like there are two analysts right now in the macro World some that say that there's this impending massive crash deflationary bust um we're going to shift into an
(23:43) entirely new system and it's going to all come you know cascading down and the other says no we're good we're going to avoid a recession soft Landing you know what actually S&P might hit 9,000 in the next year um can you can you talk to us maybe about both and and where where you sit in between them yeah I I don't have a crystal ball okay but what I do know is that there are certain Hallmarks you would see I think of the kind of deflationary spiral that a lot of the more bearish folks um are forecasting
(24:19) right you would have to see significant Rises across the board in unemployment that is a necessary condition and because of how Financial ized our economy is I also think you need to see significant decreases in the prices of assets right one of the things we know is that the Federal Reserve and others have consciously targeted a wealth effect to stimulate growth right and the idea for folks unfamiliar and and by the way this isn't like my theory this is their stated purpose on documents on various you know uh Federal Reserve Bank
(24:55) uh websites and research has been done is that they try to promote asset prices with the idea that if you feel wealthier Natalie or if I feel wealthier I'm going to go out and spend and when I go out and spend on food dining vacations cars houses whatever that's going to Spur consumption which is going to Spur more productivity and SP more growth rather and actually cause unemployment to remain low that's the theory the theory is if you prop up asset prices and you in fact stimulate growth that that
(25:25) prevents some sort of deflationary spiral this is why for many years they kept interest rates at zero right it's because they're trying to Spur lending activity spur growth spur asset prices and that will continue to keep this this whole ship running right the the the the problem I have for the bearish case is that they've effectively told you in many respects that they can't let asset prices fall too much right we saw we saw a real crash in the bond market in 20122 that was you know uh for Sigma event
(25:56) right we basically are uh having some of the worst performance in history back-to-back years in the bond market and what did it do it affected all asset prices even even though the economy was generally fairly strong in 2022 and 2023 you saw pullbacks across the board particularly in interest rate sensitive companies because of the treasury market selling off and the bond market selling off to respond to the higher rates but now what you have effectively and and and I'll credit Lynn with this because it's it's I think it's the right take
(26:26) you have pre-stimulus right um whereas before we would enter recession the government spend money and cut rates to try to pull us out of it they're just effectively spending a ton of money you know six to 7% of GDP as a as part of the uh the deficit to stimulate actively like so you don't get that deflationary collapse so and you also saw like they'll set up targeted surgical approaches for the the banking system or other po potential issues that fire up so for the bearish case where you get this deflationary bust explain exp to me
(26:59) what the catalyst is going to be um because it could happen right but explain to me what the catalyst is going to be to cause this massive selloff in real estate and how uh in real estate commercial real estate space which is a known known we've been talking about that for over a year or the stock market people are going to wake up one day and they're going to say I have to dump this stocks my stocks across the board and my portfolio what is that going to be um I I struggle really with the amount of
(27:23) government spending that's coming in to sort of forecast that I guess one thing I to play Devil's vate I could say could be geopolitical if there really is some issue that fires up that isn't on people's radar isn't being factored in geopolitically that could be a a catalyst to cause that sort of thing but I I don't see it in the economy I think the data of the economy shows that overall things are okay they're not great um I wouldn't I wouldn't even characterize it as good right I think
(27:49) the economy is good for certain people that hold assets that are at all time Highs but for a lot of other people they're really struggling um so you know that's the bearish case the bullish case I think is very clearcut right you've got a lot of government spending you're going to get a new president and I don't care if it's team red or team blue they're all promising to spend more money there isn't a single person in Washington that I hear that says we have to practice Financial uh restraint
(28:11) austerity to cut back there's going to be more money so the bear the bull case is very clear um the bull case is inflation is tame at least the using the CPI metrics it's tame which means that the FED can sort of pull its foot off the gas um that's a really clear case so I think if you you had a gun to my head you know not having a crystal ball I'd say that makes a lot more sense it's time for a quick break to hear these messages from my partners who make this podcast possible next up Bitcoin 2024
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(30:00) more don't take my word for it take 82-year-old customer bills give the Bitcoin way a try you will be well on your way to owning and protecting the greatest money ever discovered set up your free 30-minute consultation today all right back to the show well I understand why things move slowly because we are in a very complex system that is connected globally but I guess I just don't understand how we can keep blowing up the bubble this big and at this point we've kicked it up to the Sovereign level right before something
(30:31) gives where there is some credit event some counterparty that can't make their pay I mean there's just so much debt in the system I just don't see how you can keep um spending into it without something happening at some point and what's funny is on the flip side of course what are they going to do they're going to respond by printing but I guess the risk in that is when do we hit a point where inflation just gets so high that they can't ignore it terms of I mean not hyperinflation like 50% but to
(31:02) a point where people are just fleeing and risk is being repriced left and right I just don't know how this is sustainable and how we can kick the can down the road for for forever yeah um well forever again long time right but can we kick down the again I I look I try to not think about what's going to happen 20 years from now I try to think more about what's happening in the next 5 to 10 years um because because the world can change right it can change really quickly and again I think that's just it's just a
(31:29) healthier way uh to try to analyze things um because we don't but even in five I mean we've always had some significant we've had significant recessions and the you know we've had the bull market and then a significant decline for a period whether it was after the.
(31:46) com bubble after the housing crash I mean aren't we aren't we due for one more significant than 2022 I mean my personal belief is that a recession um would be extremely painful I don't think we are psychologically equipped as a society to deal with what a real bad recession would be like even even the financial crisis right which we live through um it was painful right but what did the government do they didn't actually make many people take their medicine um they spent a lot of money you know toxic asset reliefs they bailed
(32:17) out Banks they you know spent tons of money to try to pull the country out of the recession same thing with the pandemic right you saw people that if the country was closed for a few weeks they were on the food lines um but they were flooded with cash um the the problem I have is psychologically you've created you know like a like a pavlovian dog right you've created whenever there's pain you're going to get uh you know a hand out or some sort of uh money sent to you you you've set a precedent
(32:43) for stimulus um you set a precedent I think for the next recession that that the next I can tell you this the next recession which we will get at some point I will expect massive amounts of stimulus right massive government spending um so so I I don't think we can really uh the country psychologically United States at least has this the stomach to go through a real painful deleveraging at this point so that tells me the path is up now to your point how does it all end right the way it ends I think is you it has it has to go back to
(33:14) the bond market the treasury market you have to have long-end yields blow out meaning rise high enough um that it really causes uh stress in in funding the government right that's number one and also in uh having people you know having investors think long and hard about how much government debt do I want to hold that's the end the end game is really it comes back to the treasury market and now the problem for that is that again we live in a relative game where there is demand for treasuries to some extent
(33:45) because it is a global Reserve asset and even if there isn't demand you know as well as I do there will be Central planners that are going to buy up that paper to absorb it so I find it hard to believe that um you're going to have a funding issue in the treasury market anytime in the near term what you can have is you can have rates go much higher they can push north of 5% which we've seen 5% SS seems to be at least a point of turmoil for for the bond market where they just can't take the higher rates
(34:14) and that's that's an issue so uh to your point like when does it all end I think it ends When government debts and deficits are substantially higher than where they're at currently and when uh you're having real troubles with that that long end of the yker long-term interest rate expectations not the front end because keep in mind we have an inverted yield curve right which means right now in a the bizarre world we live in uh it you can the government can actually borrow at a cheaper rate for
(34:39) long-end instruments than short end instruments okay there's a reason for that that's because Bond investors still believe the FED Will Conquer inflation right now but beliefs can change right perception uh can change very quickly um if that changes uh the game changes you're making me think of something uh Cynthia L said in an interview I had with her um I forgot which committee she was sitting on but she asked like at what point is our debt an issue and the person I forgot who it was but they responded I'm not sure but we're not
(35:12) there yet that's sort of the saying at the federal level that's that's why like anybody forget like when we're having these conversations and you have guests on um rather than trying to predict the exact timeline for for me I I always think it's interesting to see tell me what that looks like describe what it looks like where the funding and and and the the structural deficits can no longer occur because that's more helpful right if you could say that then then any of your listeners can they can they
(35:41) can go read The Wall Street Journal or look at you know the charts and say okay this is really getting problematic um you know years ago people said well there's no way the Yen could go over 150 relative to United States dollar it has right so so tell me why I can't go over 200 or 250 50 um tell me what structurally breaks at those levels so are you a bull or a bear I I still can't tell I don't know I'm bullish on I'm bullish on bitcoin I'm bullish on human beings to solve any problem that's in
(36:12) front of them um I am not a doom and gloomer I'm extremely optimistic about the future I think that we have incredible times ahead of us I don't believe in this narrative that we're all going to be you know living in caves and the world's going to collapse I don't believe it um for a variety of reasons because number one I don't think it's serves any purpose and number two I think human beings can solve any problem um so so where I stand right now I'm extremely positive on bitcoin I think
(36:36) Bitcoin has a very bright future I don't pretend to know the the path it's going to take I'm not a believer in power law or these other models because it's too young of an asset and nobody can tell you where it's going to go from here what I would say uh with respect to a macro environment I think things are going to get far crazier before any sort of significant deleveraging event that people are seem to be concerned about for the last several years and and I'll just say full disclosure I thought in
(37:01) 2023 we were going to get a recession right I thought the interest rate environment was going to be high enough to trigger a recession I was wrong because what I Mis and I've said this publicly what I misidentified was the massive amount of fiscal spending that is embedded into our economy whenever they raise rates you got to remember all that extra all those higher interest rates that's someone's income so if you're again if you're a boomer who's built up a huge nest egg and now you're
(37:26) getting effectively free subsidization from the government because you can stick it in a money market and get 5% that's really that's not that bad right they they they've had a great run assets have done incredible they can take some chips off the table stick it in a money market account and see their assets grow at 5% back by the United States government so let's talk a little bit more about Bitcoin and how it's going to integrate into the Legacy Financial system some guests that I've had feel
(37:52) that there is ultimately going to be a limit like they don't believe that Bitcoin can hit 10 million USD per coin and others are on the flip side and so I'm just kind of curious how do you see it moving its way into being maybe more of a core macro asset um because you said earlier that you do feel it will eat into bonds and and real estate and and and maybe not to the extent of you know being 50% or more of the entire um Financial system but but how do you see it so my my case for Bitcoin is that nobody knows how big it can get still I
(38:26) I think it is incredibly small I think what will primarily Drive folks to bitcoin um is the issues I'm talking about with sovereign debt markets right there will be bigger players and I don't I don't mean necessarily nation states I'm more actually focused on the private sector um I think that there will be commercial Banks abroad um mostly that will recognize there are inherent risks withholding too much government debt and they will look increasingly to diversify away from government debt to other
(39:00) assets maybe some of that is in fact gold I think equities also will play a role in their diversification strategy um and I also think Bitcoin plays a big role and I'll explain why so if you look at the the birth of the euro dollar system which I know you've had guests a couple different times talk about I think You' had Jeff Snyder on here is that right he's no no oh you haven't okay um well if you look at the birth of the euro dollar system right it grew as an actual decentralized system it grew
(39:26) because a bunch of dollars flooded into offshore markets and then in the wake of World War II uh with many competitors destroyed the us being the strongest economy the us having a massive manufacturing base a point of relative stability friendly neighbors uh you know a very strong military that had been built up they decided this was the debt we want to hold to lend against we want to have Treasures to be to to outside the United States to be held by commercial Banks and we're going to issue dollar denominated obligations
(39:57) against those treasuries and against other assets and we're confident in the long-term geopolitical position of the United States where you know as of today I you know I think the biggest export the United States has to the world is dollars right that that's been the current thing how does that relate to bitcoin well if the underpinning of that market if the treasury market itself no longer is again the trend is against that market is no longer in its uh Heyday right it is uh on its way into it's in Decline let's just put it that
(40:29) way um they're going to look for some other neutral stable some other neutral basis um to hold up against its obligations and although you need regulatory changes to have it qualify under bosel as a highquality liqu liquid asset you need some other regulatory changes to come in the way I think banks would find that very attractive as a part of their portfolio and that's where the money's at right um there's an old they asked a bank robber one time like why why did you rob the bank and he said
(40:57) because that's where the money is at right the money in our system is at those commercial Banks which they create majority of capital and Credit in the world um we live in a credit system we don't live in really a Fiat system we live in credit because at the end of the day Banks can create money out of thin air they don't actually have to have the underlying obligations and this is really important for people to understand people tend to look at the world and they see it from the standpoint of the Federal Reserve and
(41:23) the United States government controlling the dollar but I if I'm a foreign Bank Natalie and I can print dollars literally I can issue dollar obligations without regard to anything in the Federal Reserve System right how how is the Fed at the center of the universe that's the whole point of the euro dollar system they can print money without actually having the money they don't have to have the treasuries or the cash to say now you have an obligation or now you have a liability that's that's the key to
(41:50) understand and the FED does not oversee those foreign institutions now they may back stop it through swap lines and through intervention for but but they're not in control they're not the center of the financial Universe at least uh globally it's really interesting to think about um I mean we are sort of in this institutional era of Bitcoin adoption we are seeing more companies it's it's a slow trickle but I think it will accelerate can you share your take on why Bitcoin has been consolidating
(42:20) and its price has not been moving significantly up or down really in the last couple of months when they're is more demand we have these spot Bitcoin ETFs I mean they're all-time highs almost every other day in equities including in the meme stocks why not with Bitcoin um because I recently tweeted about whether bitcoin's price is being suppressed there's this basis trade people have been talking about I had some guests on my show James lavish Luke Roman Preston um do you think that bitcoin's price is being suppressed in
(42:51) anyway no I don't I so so the let's talk about first part of your question where why is Bitcoin consolidating I view that as extremely bullish right the fact that you're consolidating in the 60k range I think is very very op I'm very optimistic about it I don't see that being anything negative at all um you had a ton of hype and momentum coming into the ETFs right and people just the way markets work you know I've seen this now for decades they make moves in advance of the news right they move
(43:24) before and there were many people who suggested well you're going to get the ETF launch and it'll be the sell the news event and Bitcoin will crash Etc um and there have been periods in the past where that is tended to be true right like the CME Futures launch was pretty close to the top in 2017 the Bitcoin uh Futures ETFs in November of 2021 that was fairly close to the top uh within a few days and that those were both sell the news events what you've seen here I think is you've seen sort of a
(43:56) consolidation around the news right people moved in advance of that news breaking of those products coming to Market Bitcoin actually did really well after the ETFs launched right I think we gained $20,000 in price and then we're hovering up right around historic all-time highs right at least nominal highs I believe that Bitcoin has not really made a new all-time high if you adjust for inflation U by some metrics you know bitcoin's still below that um which is fine right at this point I think you know Bitcoin moving forward it
(44:27) will have more Capital more steady flows from traditional finance and what I what I think is happening and I I don't think I know this from talking to some of the individuals that are positioning in the financial sector is that all of the various firms that are going to be offering Bitcoin products to their various investors they're trying to figure out how to talk about it how to allocate in a model portfolio and that takes a long time I know that there's a conference happening in August where they're literally going to come together
(44:55) and they're going to talk about you know uh if financial advisors about model Bitcoin allocations and should it be 2% or 3% or 5% someone's portfolio yeah so so the the the point is these things in trafi and and and financial advisors they're extremely extremely risk adverse you know they have one job don't lose me money and for them they they want everything documented they want their rationale sp sp um spelled out they don't do it like you and I where we can just go buy out and smash bu Bitcoin
(45:25) right they want to have a model that says this is what we're going to offer to you know X individual who's 35 years old who has a job who has 2.5 kids and that's what you know that's what they're going to get in their portfolio that will be built out over the next year and I expect Bitcoin to do very well with with respect to the basis trade very quickly you know this is not new in Bitcoin this is true in many markets many Commodities markets where they trying to capture that that premium
(45:50) between shorting the Futures and buying the spot um it's not manipulation by any stretch of the imagination when you are short the futures you carry and you hold the spot right there's no risk there's no risk in that trade um you're effectively just capturing that so so to me like I don't really see that the narrative I think it's just people get bored and they want to explain why Bitcoin isn't doing what they think it should do and in reality you know if we're ripping towards six figures six
(46:15) months from now nobody's going to remember that this allegation of price suppression that we hear every single time well and I didn't really look at it as um necessarily intentional like people like forces are intentionally keeping the price down for their own I saw it was more so like the Arbitrage I mean they were they're trying to they're capturing that that difference and and making a risk-free uh yield on it and so that is what's just suppressing in in terms of the price is not bouncing up
(46:43) because that's keeping it down that it's not but it's not going to suppress the so if you had two but just think of it this way say those Traders are in there they're shorting Futures and they're buying spot just make it real simple for people if there are five more Michael Sailors who want to go put Bitcoin on their balance sheet do you think the price isn't going to absolutely rip to you know $200 $300,000 of course it is so what what is what does that activity actually do got to remember those those
(47:10) folks they're buying spot right they're buying spot Bitcoin and it's against their short of the Futures position so they're into the spot Market they're into the Futures market and every dealer in the Futures Market unless they want to blow up they have to have a hedge and spot so you this notion that you can just do paper shorts without any underlying uh access to the asset any underlying hedge that is a Surefire way to blow up as an institution and you know again you s I think viewers that
(47:39) will know with GameStop issue right that's how funds can blow up big players that are playing games if there is sufficient demand organic demand for buying they blow up and that's the gamma squeeze ah the GameStop has been so crazy to watch uh yeah I want to ask you about Bitcoin self- custody do you think that there will be a battle um for individuals to be able to custody their Bitcoin and the government's going to want it to be kind of um you know more more regulated and controlled within certain entities all
(48:10) KY I mean how do you see that playing out so I for one think globally there will almost be certainly countries that try to pass Draconian rules and laws to prevent people from self- cusing Bitcoin I think in my mental model I expect it fully um in the United States in particular I I actually want it to happen uh for selfish reasons because I I personally think that once there is some sort of silly dumb rule about self- custody where they're trying to ban me from keeping 12 words in my head I can't wait to bring a constitutional challenge
(48:45) to that because I don't believe that's constitutional I think courts in particular will frown upon any sort of restrictions on people keeping information um and and so I I I think that if it were to happen in the United States ultimately it would be declared unconstitutional I don't think it's constitutional to borrow people from keeping 12 words in their head which is what you're doing when you're saying well you can't have a non-custodial wallet I think it's kind of a silly term
(49:09) overall um but I I guess I wouldn't put it as terribly high on my uh list of things that I think about when I consider you know regulation coming down the line I think there are far more likely uh aspects of Regulation that could be hostile I think there's always going to be voices in the government that despise Bitcoin for the foreseeable future but what I find increasingly encouraging is you know look at the news over the last several months you've got presidential candidates now speaking more favorably about Bitcoin um that
(49:39) that is not something that I think you would see uh if you were facing very harsh regulation or legislation coming down the line I just I don't see that at all I don't know why people would read it uh otherwise and I'll just say one final thing on that there are Judges and I think I don't think this gets talked about enough I they're not going to be public about it but there are Judges and appell at court justices and folks I know in particular that hold Bitcoin okay if there were legal challenges
(50:07) brought um against Bitcoin holders or some sort of challenge that some sort of onerous regulation like that those judges are going to hear those cases and although they're supposed to follow just the law we know that judges are human beings like anybody else and they think about what what do we really want to have as a society so I guess I would conclude by saying like I'm very optimistic that in the United States of America um eventually things are going to air on the side of Liberty and freedom and I think you've seen in
(50:35) particular with the court cases that have come down the last several years in particular that judges are not hesitating to put down decisions that curtail legislative and executive overreach and I think that's going to be true in Bitcoin as well I hope you're right um you're you're making me feel more optimistic because I have had a lot of um guests who view the world as one that is descending into more chaos and loss of freedoms and I I'm sure you call them doomers um maybe maybe that's the
(51:08) case uh and I do worry about that that if we got into a situation where the US was under threat not just um maybe from a military standpoint but really economically their position as the global superpower what what lengths would they go to and I I some people think maybe confiscation like uh but they didn't really go door too right when 6102 for gold uh was enacted they didn't actually confiscate everyone's gold people turned it in it would be very hard to do that with Bitcoin especially when you can just memorize 12
(51:43) words but I just do wonder what is the what is the worst case scenario and how do people best protect themselves because there does seem to be more of an attack on privacy tools on coin joins things that I mean you're not using the Bitcoin nefarious activities you just don't want anyone to find out how much you have or what you're necessarily doing with it for just just privacy reasons so um let's talk about more sober assessment right if there were issues that I think the government's ready to go to the madon and fight
(52:15) extremely hard what you just mentioned is it right the issue of being able to trace monitor detect those are issues I fully expect very tough cases to be filed in the years ahead and what I've always said is like you know if you're going to be engaging in those activities as a developer as a business in the United States you should be fully prepared for rigorous scrutiny from the United States government any efforts to uh obfuscate or obscure transactions and hide privacy I fully expect cases the government is just
(52:47) never going to bend on that for for many reasons one of which they will claim is National Security but also taxation right they want to be able to capture the money that they think is owed to the government so I I don't expect any any uh even even some of the more favorable uh friends of Bitcoin right they're not going to be seen as backing people trying to hide uh transactions and don't get me wrong like I I believe in privacy I'm personally I think that the developers doing in making those tools
(53:14) it's very valuable right but I I'm just telling you from a when I'm advising clients and talking about risk vectors right the issues related to what you just talked about mixers and anonymizers those are sort of issues you really got to be sensitive about um so so I think you're exactly right here but just to go back for a second right um you know our system is built in many ways um to anticipate overreach by the government that's that's why we have checks and balances right we know you could get a
(53:41) bad president in there that's going to reach too far and try to be a tyrant that's why we have the court system that's why we have the Congress right that's why there's the separation of powers in general we know the same thing can happen with the with with uh with the Congress right you can have a Congress that passes uncons constitutional laws there are laws they P have passed for since the beginning of the country that courts have struck down saying you're exceeding your enumerated
(54:05) powers under the Constitution so that's kind of like the way the system is supposed to work and for the people that will point to well the government did this during covid they reached too far they suppressed your Liberties um you know that kind of happens every time there's a crisis you know they the Japanese internment camps in this country where they hauled people in they said you know without any Duke process we're just going to confine you because we think that there's a war going on um
(54:29) this is this is happening routinely uh through almost every decade the the the beauty of the American system though is that although it can be painful with people in the short run Americans always eventually do the right thing in the long run and if you look at some of the things that have been put in place even very controversial things like the mask mandates right um courts struck those down eventually a lot of Courts came in and said you're exceeding The Authority you have and we're going to pull it back
(54:54) that's kind of how the system works so yeah I I do push back against the people that are negative because I think in the long run we're going to be able to put in place better rules and and and the bad runs will be struck down but aren't there a lot of Blurred Lines when it comes to even like the spying agencies um the Patriot Act what's been done I yeah we think about Edward Snowden and he he still is very um active online sharing how much overreach is still happening and how much we're being
(55:24) essentially surveilled and monitored so so it's like well where where are the courts there preventing something like that yeah I mean that listen privacy is one of the pivotal fights of our time right you're not going to get me to say it's not an issue like I'm not going to come up here and and tell anybody listening to this that oh don't worry you're not being Mass there's not mass surveillance don't worry that tech companies have such a power to censor and shut you down I I fully agree with
(55:49) all that right but the notion that these aren't problems we can solve is what I reject okay if if it takes new legislation to put in place people to have greater rights with respect to their data greater rights with respect to online platforms and who can be turned off and who can be censored let's get the legislation let's get leaders elected that can fix those issues um the what what I I don't understand is why people have this view that these problems are somehow unsolvable yeah no I understand um when
(56:23) it comes to privacy tools for Bitcoin I think of something that Michael sailor said that really resonated with me and that's a reminder that Satoshi created bitcoin he created away and then he gave it away and a lot of these developers they create businesses essentially and extract profit from a lot of these privacy tools whereas it really should be open source it should be ethically given away it truly decentralized not influenced by anyone no one profiting from it and then maybe we could have a privacy tool that essentially no court
(56:53) can strike down do you agree yeah absolutely so I said this when Samurai came out right so here the here are some of the facts as alleged by the government and keep in mind they allegations right in the case of samur Samurai they said that the the company you know offering uh their service to uh for for the coins for the Privacy they're Bas the whirpool I think it is um they made profit to a tune of about a million dollars or more um and that there were Direct Communications where they were apparently communicating with
(57:21) individuals uh again allegations that they were helping people try to aisc transactions and apparently they were talking to an undercover FBI agent right not a smart thing to do if you are uh in fact uh you know trying to build out a piece of software but to your point right profiting from that activity that is sort of a real threshold question that I think would totally change the analysis of that case if you H and again I've asked people that are smarter than I maybe some of your guests that come on in the future that are more techsavvy
(57:50) you can ask them like one of my issues is can you build those types of of protocols things like whirpool can you build them without extracting a profit now some people I respect have told me no you can't that to build that transaction you actually have to somehow you know extract uh a fee or some U cost for the economic transaction at least that's the way it was explained to me but it would be it would be it would be to your point if these things just ran on autopilot if they were truly decentralized and they
(58:19) couldn't be interrupted that would be probably the best place legally to be and by the way that's how Bitcoin was set up right it was supposed to work without any one developer this is what I think is always funny just as an aside in the the altcoin space in crypto you know they'll point to these things like Unis swap in other companies like oh it's a decentralized exchange but there are like a few choke points you can go after to shut the whole thing down like it really it really isn't decentralized
(58:43) I guess you could say there are decentralized aspects to it but if there's someone you can haul into court and then the thing stops working that's in my in my mind that's like the decentralization test if I can shut down a frontend server or something and then you lose 95% of the traffic that's not decentralized right great points and I I will try to explore that and I'll see what what guests I can have on that can maybe answer those questions all right well as we start to wrap up um anything
(59:08) maybe we didn't cover more in depth that you wanted to touch on or anything you want uh viewers listeners to to know uh no I I mean I I think that to me the big the big news that we're going to start increasingly focusing on over the next several months is this issue with the presidential campaign which we talked about a little bit right um I have some friends I come from a background working in politics I can tell you that they are increasingly uh basically they're they're convinced that Bitcoin and
(59:37) crypto are going to be driven home on the stump in debates in other commercials and targeted audience as an issue for this election um it will be a wedge issue uh I think there is some belief in the uh Trump orbit that it can pull some younger voters away from the the Biden base right um and uh they have data I guess to back that up I don't think it's a mistake the way this has played out over the last several months where you know it's all started with this guy I think is younger kid it's like a Zoomer or something in in pit
(1:00:10) vipers I want to say and asked Trump a question you know what I'm talking about that he's like what what's what's your stance it to me like observing that that that felt very forced and planned and then all of a sudden then you've got the issue with you know the bills that Congress is passing that are more Pro crypto out of the Republican house they're trying to highlight that contrast and you know you know I think probably from covering politics and being around that elections are all
(1:00:33) about contrast you're trying to contrast one side versus the other so from my standpoint like there's clearly an effort to contrast we're pro crypto and they're not and that I think it did have a role in potentially affecting the SEC to let forward the ethereum spot ETFs um I think legally it was always going to come but I think it accelerated the pace there's been little yeah and there's been other little overtures by the Biden Camp to try to be more open and more willing to talk about it which is really
(1:01:04) extraordinarily bullish right and what I think is going to be fascinating is if Bitcoin does what a lot of the Bulls hope and is is surging in the in the fall and people are talking about it and talking about these issues and you've got you know one president saying I want to keep all I want to mine all the Bitcoin in the United States a presidential candidate saying I want to have all the Bitcoin mind here that's going to change the national discourse and I don't remember any time in Bitcoin where there there been mainstream actors
(1:01:28) as big as the president and presidential candidates talking about it to this degree um so I'm interested to see what the market does because that's completely that's different it's you're moving from an idiosyncratic sort of uh anti-establishment asset to more of a mainstream asset right and and calling out Bitcoin by name yes Bitcoin specifically um no it's been really inspiring to see I I don't know what to expect for this election we're going to we're just around the corner from the de
(1:01:57) will it happen I think it will um but I hope Bitcoin is mentioned and it's wild to see how far we've come in 15 years and yet how much further I know that we'll go so we're still early um Joe this is great I hope to have you back on thanks so much for for sharing more of your insights and and clarifying some of your views uh hope to have you back on soon yeah thanks for having me it was fun thank you so much for checking out this episode of coin stories if you're listening on the fountain app you can
(1:02:24) show your support and share your Thoughts by sending a boost last month's top episode was with Michael sailor at Michael E Sparks boosted 777 SATs and said we're still early another popular episode was with Ed Dow at Justin affronti boosted 500 SATs and said Paul Ryan actively talking about us cbdcs and some folks think it won't happen in our lifetime gradually then suddenly great job Natalie and Ed thanks so much Justin I love reading and replying to your Boost so download fountain on iOS or Android today and make sure you're
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